Thread by @SajadJiyad

What happened in Baghdad in the past 2 days? Here's a thread to give an overview of the developments

1. Sadr decided to pull out of elections last July, but was begged by his opponents to run. His party won the most seats, he thought that meant he could form a government of his liking with Kurdish and Sunni allies. First the CF challenged the results, held them up over 2 months

2. Sadr formed an alliance with the KDP, Halbusi, others, with enough MPs to form a government. He intended to leave the CF out completely, changing the post-2003 power sharing model. The CF pushed back through the courts, using them to prevent him forming a government

3. Rulings on oil & gas and banning Zebari as a presidential candidate fractured his alliance with the KDP, then voiding a finance bill, limiting powers of a caretaker government, return of Halbusi opponents to Anbar all slowed his momentum

4. Finally it was the 2/3 quorum ruling to elect a president that sealed the deadlock. Sadr did not have the 220 MPs, so offered to include part of the CF but not all in government. CF figured this tactic out and refused, knowing they had an effective veto on government formation

5. Sadr then surprised everyone by resigning his MPs from parliament but was then surprised when the CF and his former coalition allies proceeded to swear in new MPs and begin government formation without him. So he started protests outside parliament to prevent it meeting

6. Throughout these months his opponents, backed by Iran, have frustrated Sadr, provoked him and sought to depict him as anti-state. The statement by Hairi was more personal though, challenging his legitimacy in front of his own followers, to which he responded angrily.

7. His resignation from politics gave the green light to his supporters to further invade the IZ, knowing the ISF would not prevent them. They reached the Government Palace and continued to move towards Maliki's palace and the PMF office, not using any weapons thus far

8. Security guards and perhaps a small component of the PMF fired shots at the crowd to push them back, then inevitably casualties as the shooting intensified when the Sadrists replied. The killing of several Sadrists, among which Saraya Salam commanders, led to retribution

9. Saraya Salam deployed across the country, attacking PMF offices, using rockets against the IZ and targeting the PMF in and around the IZ. The PMF responded with constraint, did not deploy in large numbers and were content to allow the Sadrists to harass the IZ

10. This light clash still led to casualties, but was not a full-out conflict. The Sadrists became the aggressors, moving beyond retribution, with appetite for more. Pressure on Sadr in Najaf led to him to pull back his followers.

11. His anger in allowing himself to be dragged into such a clash is apparent, but no side won here. The CF may want to form a government ASAP but will Sadr sit and watch?

12. The biggest loser is the state, standing idly by while two powerful armed parties continue to struggle for control. Unless a proper solution is reached, more protests and violence are possible