What happened in Baghdad in the past 2 days? Here's a thread to give an overview of the developments 1. Sadr decided to pull out of elections last July, but was begged by his opponents to run. His party won the most seats, he thought that meant he could form a government of his liking with Kurdish and Sunni allies. First the CF challenged the results, held them up over 2 months

Sadrists attempting to swarm the IZ, enter all key offices. Could go into the IMN tv office too. CF may be forced to respond as ISF just watching. Internet access may be cut off as on previous occasions then a crackdown… Still hearing intermittent bursts of gunfire from the IZ area. Pics posted on social media of Saraya Salam and PMF convoys moving to IZ gates forewarn a clash. Source noted 11 killed already today

FSC decision clarifies the govt cannot legislate significant bills or bind the next govt with significant decisions. This blunts the Sadrist push for legislation and in the wording hints that current Parliament cannot dismiss govt and appoint a new one, a tactic being considered The worry for the tripartite alliance is that legitimacy for parliament is being challenged constantly and it may be a matter of time before their moves in appointing committees, etc are cancelled and the political process freezes completely. Running out of options

In Baghdad life has returned to what it was before COVID and you would almost not know there even was a pandemic. Despite this, infection rates have not shot up according to official data which has got me thinking about something even more curious... I was in Karbala on Thursday, hardly anyone had a mask on and the shrines area was super busy. Between 28 September and 8 October the shrine authorities recorded more than 14.5 MILLION visitors for the Arbaeen alkafeel.net/news/index?id=…. This was an epic super spreader event but...

Short bio on the new PM-designate @MAKadhimi: born Mustafa Abdul Lateef Mushatat Al-Ghareebawi in 1964 in Kadhimiya, Baghdad. His father, a member of Kamil Chadirji's left-wing NDP, moved the family from Shatra, Dhi Qar in 1963 to Baghdad He fled Iraq in 1985 while still a student at law college after his brother had been on death row for ties to M. Baqir Al-Hakeem. After time as a refugee in Iran, Germany, Sweden among others, he settled in the UK where he gained citizenship and adopted the surname Al-Kadhimi

Thread on the crisis facing Basra and why Iraq will collapse if Basra collapses. Demographics, climate change, water scarcity, poor infrastructure & governance, oil prices are all factors contributing to a disaster that has been bubbling under the surface for over a decade Basra province is Iraq's financial lifeline, with oil exports from fields there contributing over 80% of government revenues. Population was estimated at 2.67m in 2013, for 2020 it is 4.72m. The city of Basra had services capacity for 1.2m and now it has 3m residents

On the issue of US bases, Iraqi sovereignty and sanctions 1/ US military bases in Iraq were built during the GW Bush presidency. When the US pulled out of Iraq at end of 2011, whatever remained was considered Iraqi and already paid for. The US signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SoFA) in 2008 specifying this: mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-wo… 2/

A thread on the Iraqi Parliament’s resolution today calling on government to initiate the removal of foreign troops 1/ The Iraqi Government has a set of agreements and requests for assistance with foreign nations (such as the US) & organizations (such as NATO & Coalition) to advise, train & support the Iraqi Security Forces. Most of these are for the purpose of combatting Daesh, some are wider 2/

Not enough time or data yet to prepare analysis of what happened and what’s next but I do have some questions on the Soleimani/Muhandis assassinations that will form the core of such thoughts 1/ The US had an opportunity almost every week for the past few years to kill/capture Soleimani, in similar settings and methods, why did they choose to do so now? What has changed for them to take such a step 2/

A thread to explain why Lt Gen Abdul Wahhab Al-Saadi was removed from the CTS

It will also shed light on his popularity in Iraq & the reason for the hashtag #كلنا_عبد_الوهاب_الساعدي

I have omitted the names of several current & former military/security officials for now

1/18 The CTS had significant corrupt and inefficient elements in it for several years, these were tolerated during the liberation efforts because forces were engaged in combat and a wholesale clear out was deemed to be best done after the war

2/18

A thread on the Iraq investment and reconstruction conference in Kuwait, what will happen going forward and how Iraq plans to implement these projects and prevent corruption: The @IraqiGovt working with @WorldBankMENA assessed Iraq's needs for reconstruction and vital infrastructure projects at $88.25bn of which $45.73bn is the cost of damage to existing sectors (see: cabinet.iq/uploads/Iraq%2…). The GOI plan is to address these needs over next 5 years