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Aug 31 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
According to Rybar the Ukrainains have managed to break through Kostromka and are now attacking towards the Davydiv Brid - Nova Kakhovka road. We assess that the Ukrainian advance might well be wider than shown by Rybar, and they might be moving for the road on a wider axis. Image
With 48 hours since the start of the offensive Ukraine is starting to threaten the first main fortified line in the area. If they can capture Bruskynske they'll have good positions on the highway. If not they'll be exposed to Russian artillery on the steppe.
It's unclear if the Ukrainians have drawn their second echelon to battle, but considering that the offensive has been ongoing for two days it's possible.
However, I still wouldn't throw parties. Ukraine has a clear advantage in logistics here, with HIMARS pounding the Russian crossings on the Dnipro, but if casualties are high the offensive may still run out of steam.

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More from @J_JHelin

John Helin Profile picture
Aug 30
Russian channels are claiming that ambulances are streaming to Odesa and that local TG channels in Mykolaiv and Odesa are asking for people to donate blood.

No idea if the ambulances are real, but some channels both in Odesa and Mykolaiv are indeed asking for blood.
Donations being asked doesn't tell us much about the success or failure of the offensive, but I spent enough time digging through the channels that I might as well fact check.
Also, if you happen to be in Odesa or Mykolaiv and you haven't heard this yet (how?) do donate.
Read 4 tweets
John Helin Profile picture
Aug 28
Not really what @kaihko and Honig are arguing here. The main argument is that the current level of (waning) support is not enough, and Ukraine either needs to be supported more (by not just economic sanctions) and that Russian nuclear weapons make the West unwilling to go all in.
@kaihko Also, that a Russia losing this war, without a total regime change, is going to be a losing, increasingly volatile nuclear power with delusions of grandeur, and that it must be taken in to account in all realistic policies for what the "end of the war" looks like.
@kaihko Forgetting that part or sweeping it under the rug with a "well the nuclear weapons will also be badly maintained" does not a good policy make.
Read 10 tweets
John Helin Profile picture
Jun 29
I kinda feel like this breakthrough towards Lysychansk/Verkhnokamyanka is one of the few unequivocal Russian tactical successes in a while.

As in, the success of the last week or so after the capture of Toshkivka.
The Zolote - Hirske defence was successful in depleting and stalling the 🇷🇺 for a long while, but with the somewhat botched pullback and almost(?) encirclement of troops there, 🇺🇦 have failed in setting up a new defensive line, and basically are now pulling out of Lysychansk
I think the Ukrainians would've rather depleted and stalled the Russians for a longer time south of Lysychansk, but it seems that the Russians managed to advance towards the Verkhokamyanka crossroads much faster than people, or at least me, expected.
Read 7 tweets
John Helin Profile picture
Jun 29
Today Serhiy Hayday told us that "the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway (T13-02) is not surrounded" and that trucks managed to get in to the city.

This means that unlike some maps show, Russians don't seem to be on the road even near the oil refinery.
It's unclear if the trucks used the T13-02, but with fighting ongoing in Verkhnokamyanka and earlier attacks from Mykolaivka towards Spirne that still seems unlikely. Parts of the T13-02 are probably a no-mans-land, and in some parts Ukrainian defenses are directly on the road.
It's likely that Ukrane is now largely using the Siversk road for supplying the Lysychansk salient.
Read 7 tweets
John Helin Profile picture
Jun 13
A local grapevine channel for the Bakhmut region states that the last bridge to Sieverodonetsk cannot be used by emergency vehicles due to risk of collapse.

This most probably means that supply trucks or other heavy equipment can't traverse it either.
While most of the Ukrainian troops in S-D are light infantry we've still seen a lot of pictures of trucks, jeeps and other lightly armoured wheeled vehicles moving in and out of the city.

Supplying the fight in the city is now harder without significant engineering efforts.
Source: t.me/bahmutnews/9230
Read 4 tweets
John Helin Profile picture
May 24
A lot has happened today around Popasna and the Severodonetsk kessel. @emilkastehelmi talked about it in finnish, and now I'll do it in english.

It's time for another look at topographic maps, this time at the entire Kramatorsk - Severodonetsk bulge.

A thread 1/?
On the map above I've drawn the approximate Russian advance and Ukrainian positions as of now. I've also marked the two main routes from Bakhmut to Lysychansk. T1302 through Soledar and Berestove, and T0513 through Siversk. 2/
Even though the battle for the Popasna heights is still ongoing, it seems that the Russians have gained the upper hand, apparently solidifying their hold on Vasylivka and pushing through Volodymyrivka or Vasylivka to cut the T1302 north of Soledar. 3/
Read 18 tweets

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