Remember Gantt-Morelle war of '90s, '00s & '10s?
If you ever want to know Gantt side, look to 1992.
White Dems voted against creating more majority Black districts.
30 years later, we are on the cusp of history repeating itself. I’m working hard to stop that from happening. /1
If you ever want to know Gantt side, look to 1992.
White Dems voted against creating more majority Black districts.
30 years later, we are on the cusp of history repeating itself. I’m working hard to stop that from happening. /1
Monroe’s Charter says Legislature-controlled Redistricting Commission is in charge of process.
Politicians picking their voters is riddled w/ self-interest. GOP blocked an independent commission.
Good news: makeup of legislature + county exec veto offers checks & balances. /2
Politicians picking their voters is riddled w/ self-interest. GOP blocked an independent commission.
Good news: makeup of legislature + county exec veto offers checks & balances. /2
The Redistricting Commission out of the gate made two huge errors.
First, Commission never asked what it wanted to do about the Voting Rights Act & rights of minority voters.
Instead we heard endless talk of keeping neighborhoods together, which isn’t covered by the VRA. /3
First, Commission never asked what it wanted to do about the Voting Rights Act & rights of minority voters.
Instead we heard endless talk of keeping neighborhoods together, which isn’t covered by the VRA. /3
Second, instead of drawing a map proposal and negotiating hard decisions and value judgments, the commission gave a bunch of suggestions to a Texas firm to “see what they come up with.”
The map that came back in May - known as Arcbridge A, merely adjusted the current lines. /4
The map that came back in May - known as Arcbridge A, merely adjusted the current lines. /4
County Executive Adam Bello told Dem Caucus he liked Arcbridge A map.
Legislature Pres. Sabrina Lamar and I knew that map was a nonstarter.
Map had 2 majority Black Voting Age Population (50%+) districts.
It did not take into power of Black voters being diluted over time.
/5
Legislature Pres. Sabrina Lamar and I knew that map was a nonstarter.
Map had 2 majority Black Voting Age Population (50%+) districts.
It did not take into power of Black voters being diluted over time.
/5
For weeks, Dems were simply unwilling to move from Arcbridge May map.
Bello spun map as “independently-drawn” without legislators in a “smoke-filled room.”
But Arcbridge doesn't appear to have been told what to do on VRA. Their expertise was misunderstood by the Commission. /6
Bello spun map as “independently-drawn” without legislators in a “smoke-filled room.”
But Arcbridge doesn't appear to have been told what to do on VRA. Their expertise was misunderstood by the Commission. /6
6/30 Pres. Lamar dropped a new map designed to get Dems back to table w/4 majority Black districts.
Dems were furious 2 suburban legislators drawn together & primaries set up in city. Some complained out loud minorities added to Black districts that got diluted over time. /7
Dems were furious 2 suburban legislators drawn together & primaries set up in city. Some complained out loud minorities added to Black districts that got diluted over time. /7
July: While discussing June map that further enfranchised minorities, Dem Party Chair Zach King urged Caucus to stop negotiating, let clock run out & allow court to draw map.
I later learned this is Bello’s position: ArcBridge A or court.
It's terrible for several reasons: /8
I later learned this is Bello’s position: ArcBridge A or court.
It's terrible for several reasons: /8
1. We can’t misuse court system - expensive proposition - because we refuse to do our jobs. 1st thing judge will say is get back to table.
2. Courts do not guarantee anything you want.
3. It’s our jobs. 15 ppl across table are legitimately elected & we're acting like babies.
/9
2. Courts do not guarantee anything you want.
3. It’s our jobs. 15 ppl across table are legitimately elected & we're acting like babies.
/9
I urged caucus to go to table.
At table, I suggested we adhere to Voting Rights Act as key principle.
5 majority-Black districts proportional to county pop., easy to draw.
Atty: to withstand legal challenges get VRA districts close to or >50%.
We all agreed do the 5.
/10
At table, I suggested we adhere to Voting Rights Act as key principle.
5 majority-Black districts proportional to county pop., easy to draw.
Atty: to withstand legal challenges get VRA districts close to or >50%.
We all agreed do the 5.
/10
Section 2 of Voting Rights Act: You have to draw a district if it meets the “Gingles Test:”
1. Is the minority class large & compact enough to draw a district?
✅ Draw a line around Crescent & area is contiguous & compact. Area can be divided into 5 >50% BVAP districts.
/11
1. Is the minority class large & compact enough to draw a district?
✅ Draw a line around Crescent & area is contiguous & compact. Area can be divided into 5 >50% BVAP districts.
/11
2. Do they vote cohesively?
✅ There is a long history of Rochester’s Black voters voting cohesively. Electoral data backs this up.
/12
✅ There is a long history of Rochester’s Black voters voting cohesively. Electoral data backs this up.
/12
3. Will the minority class’s preferred candidate be defeated by a white majority voting bloc?
✅ In #ROC, greatest correlation between voter & candidate is race of voter. Long history of electoral patterns backing this up. Can't pick odd example; have to look big picture.
/13
✅ In #ROC, greatest correlation between voter & candidate is race of voter. Long history of electoral patterns backing this up. Can't pick odd example; have to look big picture.
/13
After several mtgs, we had a 1st draft map.
I kept running log of negotiations.
By centering VRA, we faced a math problem that minimized “smoke-filled room” horse-trading.
Map is fair w/competitive races in suburbs & 20/29 seat advantage D’s over R+C.
Proud of the work.
/14
I kept running log of negotiations.
By centering VRA, we faced a math problem that minimized “smoke-filled room” horse-trading.
Map is fair w/competitive races in suburbs & 20/29 seat advantage D’s over R+C.
Proud of the work.
/14
Dem Caucus flipped out at the draft map.
Suburban legislators seemed ok, but city legislators were furious about changes & potential primaries.
I begged for ideas to take back.
Caucus did a map that had only 3 Black districts.
That’s not a serious proposal.
/15
Suburban legislators seemed ok, but city legislators were furious about changes & potential primaries.
I begged for ideas to take back.
Caucus did a map that had only 3 Black districts.
That’s not a serious proposal.
/15
Elephant in room is Sabrina Lamar being president of the Legislature.
She's part of old Gantt faction, caucusing w/GOP, giving them majority & herself presidency.
Dems don’t want Lamar to elect allies who will keep her as president, neutralizing any D pickups in burbs.
/16
She's part of old Gantt faction, caucusing w/GOP, giving them majority & herself presidency.
Dems don’t want Lamar to elect allies who will keep her as president, neutralizing any D pickups in burbs.
/16
The road to a Dem majority is NOT stepping on Black voters by diluting Black votes through doing stuff like keeping the white South Wedge in LD 25 and East End in LD22.
The way to get a Dem majority is win races & let the people choose their reps with an honest map.
/17
The way to get a Dem majority is win races & let the people choose their reps with an honest map.
/17
County Exec is sticking by Arcbridge A or court.
Dem Caucus has been told negotiated map is “not to be trusted” (with no specifics about why), it somehow doesn't comply w/VRA (huh?), negotiating is dirty & don’t be afraid to be called racists if you vote no on 5 districts.
/18
Dem Caucus has been told negotiated map is “not to be trusted” (with no specifics about why), it somehow doesn't comply w/VRA (huh?), negotiating is dirty & don’t be afraid to be called racists if you vote no on 5 districts.
/18
There is a long history of white ppl using process arguments to deprive minorities of rights.
That’s happening here.
Dems filled with excuses about why they won’t vote for the 5-district map. But they also don’t want to do anything about it - where's their 5-district map?
/19
That’s happening here.
Dems filled with excuses about why they won’t vote for the 5-district map. But they also don’t want to do anything about it - where's their 5-district map?
/19
The only smoke-filled room I’ve been in is the one where people are trying to screw Black voters.
/20
/20
There’s a long history of white ppl trying to divide minority groups to keep their power.
The D caucus has been told Hispanic voters have a claim. #'s not there to pass Gingles test.
Creating 5 districts across Crescent, historically undervalued area, helps all voters.
/21
The D caucus has been told Hispanic voters have a claim. #'s not there to pass Gingles test.
Creating 5 districts across Crescent, historically undervalued area, helps all voters.
/21
What’s my own self interest?
All map proposals so far put me in a great spot to win again.
I am losing a lot here. I resigned as Asst Minority Ldr. No one is talking to me. I’ll face vicious smears. Maybe get a primary.
It’s the law and our job to do 5 districts.
/22
All map proposals so far put me in a great spot to win again.
I am losing a lot here. I resigned as Asst Minority Ldr. No one is talking to me. I’ll face vicious smears. Maybe get a primary.
It’s the law and our job to do 5 districts.
/22
Some Dems are arguing that we don't have to do as much to comply with VRA.
Totality of circumstances must be considered. And it cannot be used as a shield to prevent creating Black districts.
Which side do you want to be on? Arguing for the minimum or the strongest plan?
/23
Totality of circumstances must be considered. And it cannot be used as a shield to prevent creating Black districts.
Which side do you want to be on? Arguing for the minimum or the strongest plan?
/23
Sabrina Lamar is Pres. today because of what happened 30 yrs ago.
I don’t support her decision to caucus w/GOP. But I understand it more after last few wks.
Let’s come back to the table & work on 5-district map.
Let's right wrongs & fix history & give voters choices.
/24
I don’t support her decision to caucus w/GOP. But I understand it more after last few wks.
Let’s come back to the table & work on 5-district map.
Let's right wrongs & fix history & give voters choices.
/24
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