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Sep 1 • 17 tweets • 10 min read
September Monthly Plan

- L1/0s: ATOM, ETH
- arbitrum: GMX, DPX
- memes: BONE
- lowcaps: cosmos coins + battered gamefi
- hedges: BTC, AVAX

- August printed local highs across board on trad + crypto charts, will see soon if we put in a higher low ahead of the merge
Nasdaq

- took May highs and failed to hold above, now testing weekly support
- from monthly chart next target should be june/july lows
- weekly & daily coming into support, think we take this swing low around 12k and push back up to the highs from powell's speech
- before testing summer lows again
- would align with the data they want to see coming in next two weeks, regardless of data think 75 bps is likely in September, meeting afterwards isn't until early November & by then they will have seen 3 consecutive CPI prints so
- more likely they would pause then instead of September
- speech from August 26th federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
- next important level would be around 9k if summer lows don't hold
SPX vs. FED Funds Futures Jan '23

- every failed rally over the past ~10 months has occurred when there's a divergence between what the market expects the FED to do & the reality, market pricing in higher rates while spx & nq rallying has marked every major local high
- currently expecting 3.75 by EOY w/ 70% chance of 75 bps raise at the Sept 20th fomc meeting
- results of non-farm payrolls data this friday & August CPI September 13th could change expectations for September meeting
- *if* jobs market comes in weaker & inflation numbers come in lower again the market likely reprices FED's chances of doing 50 bps vs. 75 bps, otherwise think its likely we print new lows late September
ETH

- has been outperforming most coins since the bottom w/ merge coming up, notably btc
- expecting ETHBTC to break out of this range next few weeks
- don't think we touch summer lows unless macro breaks down fully because of how much forced selling it took to get there
ATOM

- upcoming tokenomics change @ Cosmoverse conference late September
- under-owned compared to rest of the L1s
- has outperformed rest of L1s since the bottom in June
- there are a few upcoming token launches that stakers will get also
GMX
- user growth + rev growth has been consistent throughout bear market
- arbitrum odyssey + nitro catalysts
- breaking out to ATHs on usd & weth pairs
BONE
- should be best play if retail comes back + shibarium L2 possible launch
- bone would be gov token on the L2, most popular token on shibaswap
BTC & AVAX as hedges to downside, don't like shorting here into support but don't expect them to push to new highs quickly if markets recover like ETH & ATOM
- think atom & avax should be closer in market cap if atom gets some value accrual
August Recap

- saw signs of life onchain with sudo swap, dogechain, digidaigaku
dune.com/tomtt0x/sudosw…


- for NFTs think y00ts from DeGods is most interesting atm
- DUST has been quietly pushing new highs throughout the month
some stuff on radar

- sei network testnet
- quicksilver token airdrop
- @agoric public launch on @CrescentHub & huobi
- @thestrangeclan PASG chain launch
- @zksync & @StarkWareLtd upcoming token launches
- NEARcon sept 11-14
- SCRT + shade protocol LP campaign & SHD bonds
- Kujira stablecoin launch
- DFK chain migration off of Harmony
general concerns re: markets
- effects of accelerated QT
- continued DXY strength
- eurozone energy crisis worsening
- china / taiwan situation escalating
- FED deciding to be more aggressive than the hikes that are priced into the curve already
- crypto has been noticeably stronger than equities during pullbacks since the highs, won't break correlation if equities make new lows but think they outperform to upside if higher low is printed soon

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More from @conzimp

Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Aug 5
August Monthly Plan

- merge/L2 plays: OP, GMX, LDO
- DeFi: SNX, LINK
- lowcaps: L2 primitives gaining traction as TVL moves over
- hedges: BTC
- July saw first positive response to bad economic data, mkt currently pricing in fed pivot early '23, no fomc meeting in August
+ likely lower inflation prints next two releases should give good window prior to merge in mid September
Nasdaq

- trad charts look good across the board, led by AAPL & AMZN
- NQ should be fine as long as it holds 12800-12900, bulls want to see good reaction to CPI print next week on the 10th ImageImageImage
Read 19 tweets
Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Aug 2
July recap

- first sign of bullish response to macro data on rally following record high CPI + fomc
- eth outperformed btc significantly & merge narrative alts best returns
- still below key levels to reclaim macro bull trend
reasoning was right on this but didnt expect market to rally after significantly higher CPI print & had to flip bias after
DXY
- top coincided with bottom for risk in nasdaq / spx / crypto
- think this will go sideways most of august/september as mkt reacts to more inflation data coming in, fed has said they'll respond in late sept accordingly to what they see next months
Read 15 tweets
Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Jul 5
July Monthly Plan

- new quarter/half of the year, expecting more downside later in Q3 so looking for bear rally + highs of quarter to be printed sometime this month
- macro still in driver's seat, don't think fed pivots unless something substantial breaks in the system
- 75 bps raise priced in for fomc meeting, if cpi comes in lower that could change to 50 bps which could give a stronger rally, ideally get 4300 spx 13500 nasdaq w/ btc & eth closest to macro s/r breaks as possible
- otherwise likely weaker rally and more downside
- retail still getting squeezed by inflation, w/ summer think most are spending whatever free capital they have outside
- rates going higher only makes things worse w/ consumer debt @ aths & inflation still heavily affected by supply side, think spending slows a lot after summer
Read 22 tweets
Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Jul 4
June recap

- tradfi downside continuation -> crypto trend continuation
- higher cpi reading was local high before key levels broke
- alts still getting crushed, some ltf strength from sol on last leg of selling compared to eth+btc, exchange tokens strongest sector
NQ

- bearish retest played out here, low for nasdaq in june was ~11k, fed language + inflation numbers really driving everything here, shift in consensus from 50 bps to 75 bps @ fed meeting after higher cpi print preceded last selloff
- don't really have any change in opinion on how this keeps trading, should look to fade rallies until either mkt structure changes or macro conditions change
- although should be noted that consensus is overwhelmingly negative at this point so--
Read 11 tweets
Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Jun 7
June Monthly Plan

- range trading majors & researching new protocols
- watching for tradfi trend continuation that could lead to next break to the downside
- keeping tabs on games that launch, dont think retail comes back to pure defi money games anytime soon, more likely NFTs+
nasdaq

- monthly looking at ~13.5k & 12.5k, relief rally towards end of may printed a doji but need to see follow through close with strength this month for a continued rally imo

- daily / weekly still bearish retest until 13.5k reclaim
- think its more likely that bearish trend continues here rather than trend reversal, possible events that could be bullish catalysts would be significantly lower cpi or global supply issues improving
- will see mkts response to may cpi later this week on the 10th
Read 11 tweets
Ansem 🦋 Profile picture
Jun 7
May recap

- altbtc pairs crushed
- no rally from btc post fomc and breakdown of ~4 month range
- was away from screens for first few days of luna contagion/ust collapse
- NFTs still shuffling around, musical chairs with whichever fotm but no strong outliers making continued aths
all down ~50+%
actually had some luna that got cut when btc broke from range, but still had ust when depeg first started happening
Read 5 tweets

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