- FED stayed course w/ 25 bps raise, signaled no cuts this year vocally & w/ 5.1% end of year rate - same as December
- also hinted towards pausing hikes
- most important comment from Powell: "effects of credit tightening can have same effects as rate hikes"
- key here is that they are ok w/ maintaining tighter financial conditions as long as it assists w/ bringing inflation down
- assume reasoning here is they'll be able to assist later by cutting rates or providing stimulus in other ways
Feb 15, 2023 • 39 tweets • 13 min read
February Market Outlook
- main focus: arbitrum & zk(e)VMs
- pre-mainnet focus: app-specific rollups & modular architectures
- upcoming trends on radar: Fantom FVM, ETH DeFi refocus w/ fundamental catalysts, Interchain DeFi emergence
- hedges: doge, eth
- optimistic rollup on ETH, highest TVL out of any L2 and most consistent trends wrt user activity and daily txs
- more native dApps have started to emerge and do well alongside possible rumored airdrop of $ARBI token
Feb 10, 2023 • 26 tweets • 10 min read
February Market Update
- AI coins running 3-4x+
- Majors rebounding off FTX blow-up lows
- FED's response to slowing inflation & market's prediction of terminal rates
- Liquid Staking Derivatives pop ahead of ETH's Shanghai Upgrade
- BTC & ETH still ranging, failure to breakdown following FTX collapse is encouraging for bulls
- gives room for alts w/ out bagholders (new launches) and coins w/ strong narratives as good trades
Feb 9, 2023 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
since ppl ask me this all the time, off top of my head will try to give some advice on timing rotations & predicting narratives ahead of time
what i recommend doing for trading narratives: 1/?
1) keep a list of the different sectors in crypto
September Recap
- most crypto charts flat but holding ranges
- continued weakness on trad charts & surprising crypto relative strength
- merge plays sell-the-news
- upside surprise on CPI numbers + 75 bps raise -> priced in 50 bps more of hikes thru eoy w/ target of 4.25% FFR
- expected higher rally before testing summer lows on nas, honestly very surprised at crypto strength the past month - was expecting crypto to follow trad indices to june lows if we got weak pa but hasn't been able to follow through on bad news
- took May highs and failed to hold above, now testing weekly support
- from monthly chart next target should be june/july lows
- weekly & daily coming into support, think we take this swing low around 12k and push back up to the highs from powell's speech
Aug 5, 2022 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
August Monthly Plan
- merge/L2 plays: OP, GMX, LDO
- DeFi: SNX, LINK
- lowcaps: L2 primitives gaining traction as TVL moves over
- hedges: BTC
- July saw first positive response to bad economic data, mkt currently pricing in fed pivot early '23, no fomc meeting in August
+ likely lower inflation prints next two releases should give good window prior to merge in mid September
Aug 2, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
July recap
- first sign of bullish response to macro data on rally following record high CPI + fomc
- eth outperformed btc significantly & merge narrative alts best returns
- still below key levels to reclaim macro bull trend
- new quarter/half of the year, expecting more downside later in Q3 so looking for bear rally + highs of quarter to be printed sometime this month
- macro still in driver's seat, don't think fed pivots unless something substantial breaks in the system
- 75 bps raise priced in for fomc meeting, if cpi comes in lower that could change to 50 bps which could give a stronger rally, ideally get 4300 spx 13500 nasdaq w/ btc & eth closest to macro s/r breaks as possible
- otherwise likely weaker rally and more downside
Jul 4, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
June recap
- tradfi downside continuation -> crypto trend continuation
- higher cpi reading was local high before key levels broke
- alts still getting crushed, some ltf strength from sol on last leg of selling compared to eth+btc, exchange tokens strongest sector
- bearish retest played out here, low for nasdaq in june was ~11k, fed language + inflation numbers really driving everything here, shift in consensus from 50 bps to 75 bps @ fed meeting after higher cpi print preceded last selloff
- range trading majors & researching new protocols
- watching for tradfi trend continuation that could lead to next break to the downside
- keeping tabs on games that launch, dont think retail comes back to pure defi money games anytime soon, more likely NFTs+
- monthly looking at ~13.5k & 12.5k, relief rally towards end of may printed a doji but need to see follow through close with strength this month for a continued rally imo
- daily / weekly still bearish retest until 13.5k reclaim
Jun 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
May recap
- altbtc pairs crushed
- no rally from btc post fomc and breakdown of ~4 month range
- was away from screens for first few days of luna contagion/ust collapse
- NFTs still shuffling around, musical chairs with whichever fotm but no strong outliers making continued aths
May Monthly Plan
- main focus btc, expecting post-fomc rally to retest range highs before more chop
- most altbtc pairs to keep bleeding & btc continue ranging
- NFTs trend still strong, new market leaders emerging here on eth & sol
- weakness in tradfi growth stocks mirroring
