Thread by @saxena_puru

1)Portfolio Update Aug-end -

$ADYEY $BILL $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $NET $NU $OKTA $S $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $ZI $ZS

Hedge - Short #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +460.36% (33.27%pa)
$ACWI +46.90% (6.62%pa)
$SPX +82.19% (10.51%pa)

Contd...

2) YTD return (2022)-

Portfolio (-)26.79%
$ACWI (-)18.78%
$SPX (-)17.02%

Biggest positions -

1) $SNOW 2) $NET 3) $GLBE 4) $DDOG 5) $NU

Contd...

3) Commentary -

August was a choppy month (strong rally followed by a swift pullback) and my portfolio recorded a small gain versus declines for the major indices.

Over the past few weeks, a number of my companies reported strong operating results which caused their stocks...

4)...to rally sharply but towards the end of the month, they gave back some of their gains.

During August, I made a couple of changes and post its quarterly ER sold out of $AFRM; and also booked my gains in $MELI (growth will slow down sharply from '23).

I invested in $ZS...

5)...which has a long growth runway and should continue to do well during this weak macro environment. Furthermore, I also added to my positions in $CRWD, $GTLB, $OKTA, $NET, $S and $SNOW.

During the month, I also sold short $NDX futures to hedge my portfolio....

6) Turning to the stock market, Jay Powell's hawkish comments at Jackson Hole reversed the "risk on" sentiment and caused even more UST yield curve spreads to invert.

At present, over 70% of the spreads that I monitor are inverted and historically, this has always been...

7)...followed by a recession in the US.

Based on history, a risk of recession is elevated and according to my trend following indicators, the trend is currently DOWN. Therefore, my portfolio is hedged.

In the investment business, anything can happen but...

8)...it appears as though the next few weeks are likely to be volatile and it is conceivable that the indices might re-test their June lows.

For my part, I own shares of some of the most dominant, rapidly growing, "sticky" businesses in ecommerce, payments/fintech and software.

9) Macro risks notwithstanding, I am confident that these businesses will continue to grow for several years and when the Fed pivots, their stocks will embark on a multi-month rally.

Remember, over long run, business results (primarily growth followed by return on capital)...

10)...are the drivers of investor returns and at these valuations, my holdings should generate a decent IRR over the next 2-3 years.

The past year has been tough but over the past 100 years, such bear-markets have always been followed by a new bull run.

This too shall pass.