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Sep 1 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Kherson counterattack day 4. Probably gone but still need to be careful about what we are seeing. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
Clear now this is a well planned operation by the Ukrainians. Even stories of how it had been war gamed with US planners. Stress on creating a limited, manageable offensive. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/31…
Also clear that there has been some advances. Pentagon language yesterday was very careful but clear on this, and this was an on the record, named briefing. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
Though clearly at a cost. And that is crucial as Ukraine (unlike Russia) won’t want to devastate its more professional and motivated army as it advances.
Ukrainians remaining quiet. Few formal details on what’s happening. That’s good. At times in the past too much info seemed to be leaking out everywhere.
However they are reporting very heavy Russian losses in almost all categories, a major acceleration in losses from a week ago. Soldiers, tanks, APCs, artillery. Sign of intense fighting.
More official Ukrainian claims of Russian losses, specifically tied to Kherson front.
Haven’t updated this thread much because I’ve seen little lately that seems concrete or useful for what’s happening in Kherson. Lots of substanceless speculations.
One of the few things that was interesting was the Ukrainians continuing to claim that they have the main bridges in the region under fire control (or something similar). They are making that a theme.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 2
Ok, one of the first official claims of the day by Ukraine. Russia has suffered ‘significant losses’ . Hope to release ‘more positive news soon’
@GeneralStaffUA claims on Russian losses yesterday still high, but down a bit from the days before.
And in the morning communique the @GeneralStaffUA made an unusually specific claim about the destruction of Russian equipment in just one town. Image
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 2
Been following this debate for a while and haven’t said anything so far, because I can’t make up my mind on this kind of sanction. I know many Russians who are appalled, and desperately opposed to Putin’s actions. And I want to support and encourage them as much as possible.
The reason fo a ban of this type does have a clear justification though, collective punishment of Russian citizens for the genocidal war of their state. Found an interesting threshold with this OUP international law definition of collective punishment. opil.ouplaw.com/view/10.1093/l…
The specific phrase is collective punishment of members of a group if the group as a whole acts ‘in defiance of the most elementary principles of humanity’. What we are seeing in Ukraine by the Russian state seems to fit that definition. Image
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 31
Kherson counterattack day 3 (probably). Looks more and more like this is a Ukrainians shaping operation to accelerate Russian attrition. They are claiming high Rus losses in many categories yesterday; soldiers, tanks, artillery.
Lots of reported strikes in the last day on bridges to slow Russian supplies. t.me/riamelitopol/6…
@GeneralStaffUA putting major stress in its daily updates about Russian troop losses.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 30
Ukrainian Kherson counterattack, day 2 (possibly). Good map showing the FIRMS fire data overlaid on the supposed front line. Significant fire, behind or on the Russian front line.
Reupping this map from last night, very useful for showing the areas where fighting was reported and the transport options across the Dnipro. Interesting that Ukr attacks are registered at both ends of the front line
Yep
Read 31 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 29
Some stories emerging of Ukrainian success in Kherson--wise to keep things in perspective. Moving forward in this war is not easy.
One of the early reports.
some more reports.
Read 44 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Aug 28
Sunday update, Russo-Ukraine War and the Battle of the Bridges.
Things really have ground to a halt in the east and the Ukrainian strategy in Kherson should be clear even to those who doubted it first. We are in a terrible phase in the world which is all about destroying forces on both sides.
The idea that the Russians were making even incremental gains this week is no longer tenable. They seemed hardly able to move forward at all. Comparing @TheStudyofWar maps from Today and a week ago--basically identical.
Read 16 tweets

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