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Roland Oliphant Profile picture
@RolandOliphant
Sep 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Russian ministry of defence claims Ukraine tried an amphibious landing across the Dnieper to seize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Frankly difficult to believe. Operation described sounds bold/suicidal.
Here's an idea of how wide the river is there.
Gets bolder. Pro-Rus telegram channel says Ukrainians planned to kidnap IAEA inspectors & hold them hostage in nuclear plant, demanding Russia quit Crimea in exchange for release. Plans delivered to Kyiv by Boris Johnson, who wd use resulting crisis to stay in office.
What we do know: Both sides report fighting/shelling around Energodar today. @energoatom_ua said it shut down reactor 5 after a mortar strike at 04:57 prompted "emergency protection." Back up powerline damaged. Reactor 6 still online.
Reuters citing Interfax snapping that IAEA mission has just reached the power plant

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More from @RolandOliphant

Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Jan 11, 2023
Wagner’s Yevgenny Prigozhin in a mine with a tank. Released by his press service with a claim that Soledar is fully under Russian control. First Russian victory in about six months if true.
1 - Unconfirmed as yet. May well be exaggerated 2 - in the voice note statement accompanying the pic he insists (again) that this is a Wagner exclusive battle. I.e. Up yours to the Russian army. I wonder if that is simple vanity or connected to his contract in some way.
Spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern group of forces tells Ukrainian TV Prigozhin is lying, Russians do not control Soledar. Says further details will come from the General Staff.
Read 8 tweets
Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022
The court takes the view MH17 was shot down by a missile "fired from an agricultural field near Pervomaisky." Judges accept the basics of the investigation.
The Question is "whether the Russian Federation had overall control of the DPR in 2014"
"The court judges that this was the case."
In otherwords, Dutch court finds the 2014 war was an international conflict. Not like there was doubt, but of significance.
Read 26 tweets
Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Nov 11, 2022
Russian war blog Rybar says the evacuation of Kherson is complete and the bridges at Antonovka and the Kakhovka Dam were blown earlier this morning (then blames “Ukrainian shelling” for damage to the dam itself and hints it may collapse).
Will take a while to sift that with last night’s reports of chaos on the river bank. As usual on this front, much fog of war and probably some days before Ukrainian military let journalists in on the ground.
(There is I think a short stretch of bridge over one of the locks at the north end of the dam that can be destroyed without damaging the dam itself. Maybe the Russians blew that bit).
Read 4 tweets
Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Oct 11, 2022
Putin’s conditions for negotiation (as cited here) are utterly divorced from current battlefield reality. He’s in cloud cuckoo land. People like Musk listening to him probably reinforces the false impression western elites are too. vice.com/en/article/ake…
First two he had a reasonable chance of achieving once upon a time. Third is an up-yours neither the West or Kyiv will ever accept and you’d only add if you were a) living on another planet or b) dont actually want to negotiate Image
Putin seems to want a new Minsk but has forgotten he got Minsk by, er, winning a war. At a minimum he will have to stop losing this one if he wants anyone to take this kind of thing remotely seriously.
Read 4 tweets
Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022
I will be interested to see if the collective West continues to ignore Ukrainian requests for modern air-defence systems. I interviewed @DmytroKuleba in London before the invasion and he was asking for it then. This seems a...moment.
The standard excuse at the time went something like: "it would take a year to train a Patriot battery crew, and Ukraine doesn't have that long." We will be at a year of war in four months from now.
Then there was talk about difficult integrating with Soviet legacy systems like S-300 and Buk. I don't know what those difficulties are tbh, but I wonder if it wd be that difficult.
Read 7 tweets
Roland Oliphant Profile picture
Oct 7, 2022
On guns and mushrooms
We went across the river. The bridgehead is now 15 miles deep or more in places and Ukrainian gunners say Russians are so preoccupied trying to stop infantry advancing they don’t have time for counter-battery fire.
It is also mushroom season, and the troops are eating rather well. Julian Simmonds is serious war photographer and photographed the mushrooms without prompting.
Read 4 tweets

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