Wagner’s Yevgenny Prigozhin in a mine with a tank. Released by his press service with a claim that Soledar is fully under Russian control. First Russian victory in about six months if true. 1 - Unconfirmed as yet. May well be exaggerated 2 - in the voice note statement accompanying the pic he insists (again) that this is a Wagner exclusive battle. I.e. Up yours to the Russian army. I wonder if that is simple vanity or connected to his contract in some way.

The court takes the view MH17 was shot down by a missile "fired from an agricultural field near Pervomaisky." Judges accept the basics of the investigation. The Question is "whether the Russian Federation had overall control of the DPR in 2014"
"The court judges that this was the case."

Russian war blog Rybar says the evacuation of Kherson is complete and the bridges at Antonovka and the Kakhovka Dam were blown earlier this morning (then blames “Ukrainian shelling” for damage to the dam itself and hints it may collapse). Will take a while to sift that with last night’s reports of chaos on the river bank. As usual on this front, much fog of war and probably some days before Ukrainian military let journalists in on the ground.

Putin’s conditions for negotiation (as cited here) are utterly divorced from current battlefield reality. He’s in cloud cuckoo land. People like Musk listening to him probably reinforces the false impression western elites are too. vice.com/en/article/ake… First two he had a reasonable chance of achieving once upon a time. Third is an up-yours neither the West or Kyiv will ever accept and you’d only add if you were a) living on another planet or b) dont actually want to negotiate

I will be interested to see if the collective West continues to ignore Ukrainian requests for modern air-defence systems. I interviewed @DmytroKuleba in London before the invasion and he was asking for it then. This seems a...moment. The standard excuse at the time went something like: "it would take a year to train a Patriot battery crew, and Ukraine doesn't have that long." We will be at a year of war in four months from now.

On guns and mushrooms

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1578419846987104256

We went across the river. The bridgehead is now 15 miles deep or more in places and Ukrainian gunners say Russians are so preoccupied trying to stop infantry advancing they don’t have time for counter-battery fire.

Russian ministry of defence claims Ukraine tried an amphibious landing across the Dnieper to seize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Frankly difficult to believe. Operation described sounds bold/suicidal. Here's an idea of how wide the river is there.

Russia quits Snake island.
- Russian mil telegram: trying to retain control of the island under Ukrainian fire from French Caesar shore artillery was a suicide mission
- Russian MoD: withdrawal is a voluntary gesture of goodwill to allow grain exports Questions for the drawers-of-arrows-on-maps: Will Ukrainian forces face the same fate/resupply problems if they try to land there? Do they even need to if they've denied it to the Russians?

I would never call the Donets a backwater! But I enjoyed writing this. I’ve wanted to write about that river for years. Featuring выхухоль and plashy fens. telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… On a more serious note.
The battle for Donbas could well be called the battle of the Siverksy Donets. The coming days and weeks will see heavy fighting up and down the banks as the Russians try to cross and the Ukrainians try to hold them back.

On artillery and fear.
This is free to read today, so fill your boots and share around. I hope it conveys some sense of what is going on here - and what it means to be on a map that someone has drawn an arrow on. telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… The war in Ukraine is now dominated by artillery, and the Russians have more of it. This is the battle for Liman the other day. Zoom in and imagine being where that smoke is rising from.

Western officials said today their govt(s) want Russia to withdraw to pre-Feb 24 lines “at minimum.” Which the nearest I’ve heard to a coherent definition of what “Putin must fail” mantra looks like. . @trussliz is going to give a speech tonight saying that "Ukraine’s victory is a strategic imperative for us all" (acc to trailed comments the FCDO sent over). Watch here:

https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1519285535524761600?s=20&t=s0Ip2jZbMMfSsmL5yoTmiA

)

I also tried reading this but gave up.
Struck me as 1) delusional about reality in Europe/West/Ukraine. Underscores Russian miscalculations to date
2) Manifesto for total forever war with the global West.
3) Frothing with hate, self conviction, rightness of Russian cause.

https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1519222930273619968

Thoughts: delusion/miscomprehension/whatever you want to call it about realities on the ground in Ukraine and West contributed to this war and early Russian failures. So - does he really still believe this nonsense? And do others - esp Putin?

If you are interested in hearing Vladimir Putin's excuses/lies about protecting Donbas from "genocide" to the UN Sec Gen his lecture is here. "We faced a provocation in Bucha which the Russian army has nothing to do with." Etc news.sky.com/watch-live "We cannot give security guarantees without territorial guarantees for Crimea/Donbas republics." Etc

Kharkiv is not encircled! The roads to the south and west are still open and were never cut. Do not understand why Defence Intelligence keeps saying this.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1502533211523538944

It is difficult to keep up with events and there were moments in the past couple of weeks when it looked like a circle was being closed. Fog of war understandable. But its pretty clear by now it is not surrounded.

Lavrov says the talks with @SecBlinken were "useful" and "constructive" - and that he will wait for written answers to Russian ultimatums next week before judging "if we are on the right path."
Doesn't sound like war. For now. He claims the US delegation was forced to accept it cannot just talk about the specific issue of Ukraine - but has to address Russia's great big strategic Euro-Security demands. Making clear Moscow's demands are wider.

Big arm-chair-general read on possible Russian war plans in Ukraine, featuring great insights from @KofmanMichael @RALee85 @Orysiaua @Justin_Br0nk. All ludicrous speculation/unforced errors/simplifications mine, not theirs. telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… There is a great deal of disagreement in the academic community about all this. But let's for the sake of argument assume Putin is looking at a coercive war to force concessions from Nato and Ukraine - not one of conquest and annexation.

Britain's Integrated Review of defence identified two adversaries: China and Russia. So @sophia_yan @Nat_Vasilyeva and I did an IR for them too. Any howlers in this tour-de-force of armchair generalship probably my fault... telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/2… Speaking of howlers, @MarkGaleotti not impressed we didn’t mention Nato troops on paper outnumber Russia significantly. Fair point...OR IS IT???

Vladimir Putin is addressing the State Duma amid speculation he will accept an MP's proposal to keep him in power beyond 2024. dumatv.ru Vladimir Putin compares himself to FDR, who guided the US through the Great Depression and the Second World War before US two-term limit was introduced. "Sometimes stability is more important"

The #MH17 investigation is about to hold a press conference. Widely expected to make clear responsibility for the shoot down. A reminder: Malaysian Airlines MH17 was en route from Amterdamn to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down over east Ukraine on July 17, 2014. All 298 on board were killed.