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Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Feb 1

1/

Kenneth Gregg volunteer in #Ukraine

01.02.2025 update.

- Today I will deal with the Trump issue.

Trump is working too hard to fulfill his election promises and the media/bloggers are screaming at the top of their lungs that it will be a disaster for Ukraine.

It is now the same hysteria as when the Kremlin sent an old worn-out Oreshnik missile, so let's repeat the biggest myth of the Kremlin's propaganda that SO many have had instilled in their heads and it looks like it will continue to be instilled:

"Russia will win the war, either they win or it will lead to World War III.

Western military support for Ukraine worsens the situation and prolongs the suffering.

The only possibility for peace is to de-militarize Ukraine".

Let me also remind you of the other myth that the Kremlin continues to have high on its propaganda plate:

"Russia is at war with the West. - The war is in fact a proxy war against NATO being fought in Ukraine.

Russia is defending itself against Ukrainian attacks.”

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- These two myths are constantly repeated in the political circles of the far right and far left, also among MAGA fans in the USA as well as within the peace movement in the Nordic countries.

Now that the uncertainty with Trump is great, this myth is starting to play again at high speed.

There are many reasons why the result will not be as in the myths, but today I will concentrate on Trump.

Trump is much stronger today than he was during his first term, partly because his election victory was massive, both among the voters and the electors.

Putin, in turn, has never been as weak as he is today, with a war that is not going according to plan and an economy that is heading towards disaster.

These claims are agreed upon by the majority of analysts. Trump wants to maintain his advantage and is then faced with two options.

The first option is to give Ukraine everything it needs for a military victory and in return get the majority of the reconstruction work to American companies.

This market is in the billions and would provide a flourishing growth in the American economy

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"The other option is to force a fragile peace and thus keep the Kremlin on the carpet."

Then Trump has constant pressure on the Kremlin and, together with China, basically keeps the Kremlin as a vassal.

A vassal that outwardly looks strong but de facto must listen to what Washington and Beijing have to say, in other words, Russia ends up in a so-called "Finlandization."

Because a total military defeat for Putin means that his power is broken and he becomes free prey for those who are just waiting for their chance.

- Europe then?

Europe does not want to see any deterioration in its own position and is very afraid of maintaining its trade agreement, which is advantageous for Europe.

Trump will introduce tariffs on EU products that could hit the EU very hard. Regardless of which option he chooses, it is in Trump's favor.

Everyone analyzes every word of what he says and rambles around with one statement after another. Within the EU, people have actually started talking about ending the Russian gas embargo in the event of a possible peace.

- Where does this situation put Ukraine then?

@ZelenskyyUa knows that it is important to lubricate Trump with everything he can, which is why Zelensky has repeatedly assured Trump that he is prepared for peace negotiations.

Zelensky began this preparation for peace talks at the end of Biden's presidency, including by inviting the Kremlin to peace seminars.

Zelensky knows this game, he is an actor like Reagan was. In the end, however, it is Trump who chooses

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Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Jan 29

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Mustafa Dzhemilev: The future of Crimea is broad autonomy within #UkraineWillWin

Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatar people, spoke about his meeting with Putin, which took place in March 2014 during the occupation of Crimea.

In a conversation with Putin that lasted more than 40 minutes, Dzhemilev openly declared to the Russian president the inadmissibility of the annexation of Crimea and its devastating consequences for the international order:

"You made a big mistake. You need to immediately withdraw your troops from Crimea."

- In response, Putin insisted that the annexation corresponded to the

"will of the Crimean people"

and that Russia would solve all the problems of the Crimean Tatars better than Ukraine.

"It was a conversation between two deaf people, "
recalls Dzhemilev. " He spoke of the "happy future" of Crimea as part of Russia, and I insisted that this aggression was a path to isolation and tragedy for his country."

- According to Dzhemilev, he warned Putin that the occupation of Crimea would destroy relations between Russia and Ukraine for decades and would become an international crime that no one would recognize.

Details:
obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-n…

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Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatar people, spoke about his meeting with Vladimir Putin, which took place in March 2014 during the occupation of Crimea.

- The Mejlis chairman spoke about this exclusively in a conversation on Mykola Knyazhytsky’s YouTube channel .
youtu.be/L9YPR_Oii5A?si…

In a conversation with Putin, which lasted more than 40 minutes, Dzhemilev openly told the Russian president about the inadmissibility of the annexation of Crimea and its destructive consequences for the international order

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Mustafa Dzhemilev met with Putin in Moscow a few days before the pseudo-referendum on the peninsula.

- During the conversation, Dzhemilev bluntly told the Russian president:
"You have made a big mistake. You need to withdraw your troops from Crimea immediately."

In response, Putin insisted that the annexation corresponded to the "will of the Crimean people" and that Russia would solve all the problems of the Crimean Tatars better than Ukraine

“It was a conversation between two deaf people,” Dzhemilev recalls. “He spoke of the ‘happy future’ of Crimea as part of Russia, and I insisted that this aggression was a path to isolation and tragedy for his country.”

According to Dzhemilev, he warned Putin that the occupation of Crimea would destroy relations between Russia and Ukraine for decades and would become an international crime that no one would recognize.

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Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Jan 28

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Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles were operational: new details of the strike on the Shahed warehouse in the Oryol region of the Russian Federation have emerged

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/pratsyuval…

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The strike on the Shahed warehouse in the #Oryol region of the Russian Federation was carried out with three Storm Shado w / Scalp cruise missiles .

As a result, dozens of attack drones , their warheads, as well as more than three tons of fuel for the UAVs were destroyed .obozrevatel.com/ukr/entity/sto…

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This was reported on January 28 by the Telegram channel "Spy's Dossier" .
t.me/dosye_shpiona/…

According to its data, on January 26, a missile strike was launched at the site of the large-unit assembly and storage of the Geran-2 UAV near the village of Velika Chern in the Bolkhovsky district of the #Oryol region of the Russian Federation.

The strike was carried out using three British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP air-launched cruise missiles, the report said.

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Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Jan 27

1/
Joakim von Braun

Swedish security/easteurope expert

__________

PART 2

Weakened economy

Russia's total military sector is now estimated to account for over 50 percent of the country's GDP.

Then you have to understand that there is a lot in the Russian war budget that is hidden under a large number of items that are not included under the Ministry of Defense.

At the same time, the tax base has decreased due to all the men fighting in Ukraine, many thousands of individuals who have fled the country and a number of other factors. The interest rate is currently 21 percent, inflation is very high, the country's residents are not allowed to use dollar bills, unemployment is increasing ..... Is there any economic indicator that points in the right direction?

Dagens Nyheter reported this morning about galloping Russian food prices (dn.se/ekonomi/ryska-…). Prices of Russian staple foods such as potatoes, onions, cabbage and beets have increased by 92, 48, 45 and 32 percent respectively in 2024

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The food price checker would suffer a brain hemorrhage if they came to visit!

"Russia's infrastructure seriously damaged"

At the same time as the economy is going to hell, the infrastructure is also collapsing in parts.

More and more civilian aircraft are being grounded in a combination of a lack of spare parts and some aircraft being used as spare parts warehouses.

- In December 2024, the Estonian "International Centre for Defence and Security" published the valuable 24-page report "The Iron Leviathan:

- Russia's Rail Network in its War against Ukraine" (icds.ee/wp-content/upl… _Soukand_December_2024.pdf) which I think many would appreciate

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Firstly, the roads in Russia (and previously in the Soviet Union) have rarely been intended for long-distance transport across large parts of the country.

This is what railways and planes have been used for – freight transport has been carried by rail while people have been flown from city to city.

In Sweden, we have learned all the problems that a railway can suffer from in the form of icing, cracks, rust and other things.

- Russia has it many times worse and ever since the country's first 5-year plan in the 1920s, the Kremlin has received falsified and distorted reports on the status of the railway (Yes, this applied to all reports on everything that flowed into Moscow!).

In addition, in 2022, the railways in Russia will suffer many deliberate attacks both down on the hill and from above. The partisan group Atesh (which I have told you about earlier) has attacked Russian freight trains on several occasions.

- In the past 18 months, trains in Moscow, Saratov, Yaroslavl, Belgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Simferopol and St. Petersburg have been sabotaged or attacked.

Both sabotage against railways, railway bridges and trains continues but not to the same extent as in 2022-2023.

On the other hand, attacks from the air seem to continue to the same extent as before

Read 9 tweets

Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Jan 27

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The Kremlin will not withstand the collapse of oil prices, Putin will have to end the war. Interview with Russian opposition figure Kurnosova

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/kreml-ne-v…

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opinion, it is precisely because they remain at a fairly high level that the aggressor country Russia has the opportunity to continue the war against Ukraine .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/don…

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In his opinion, it is precisely because they remain at a fairly high level that the aggressor country Russia has the opportunity to continue the war against Ukraine
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/vojn…

Read 10 tweets

Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22

@anno1540

Jan 26

1/

By;
Joakim von Braun
Sedish Security/EastEurope Expert
_______

"The Russian military is completely worn out "- PART 1

- The other day I received a very interesting report in my hand from the American Rand Corporation:
- "Russia's Military After Ukraine".

Hardly a report that the average person would throw themselves at with its 263 pages (not me either).

- But having said that, there is a lot of interesting information in the report that is well worth highlighting.
The report also agrees with much else that I have read in the last two or three months and that has taken a lot of time to penetrate.

Those of you who are particularly interested can find the report at rand.org/content/dam/ra…

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- Now I don't really have this time, but on the other hand, the information that has flowed in is so incredibly important and interesting that I feel that I must ensure that my friends and followers have the opportunity to take part in all this material.

What I have read and analyzed contradicts a lot of what most of us can read in the media.

This material is not incorrect, but often tends to only show us part of a very comprehensive whole.

Things are not going as badly for Ukraine as many stubbornly seem to believe.

- If you broaden your view, you will see a series of events and analyses that point to many positive successes for Ukraine as well as showing pure disasters for Russia - one after the other in a single long trajectory.

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"Russia's gigantic military losses"

- The Russian military is still fighting to a far too high extent as if it were in the 19th century.

It is true that they have improved in many ways, but at the same time Russian losses are increasing dramatically.

- It would not be at all surprising if Ukraine deliberately exchanges a few kilometers of its land for thousands of dead and wounded Russians.
However, I have no evidence for this suspicion, but the Russian advances are causing ever greater Russian losses.

Russia has a very old-fashioned view of military success and military security. By deliberately "giving away" a little of its land (which it certainly expects to be able to take back), the Russians are losing many more soldiers than they can afford.

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