The #Kremlin is trying to maintain the appearance of stability after the events in Dagestan: the ISW assessed the situation

Putin's regime in Russia is trying to maintain the appearance of stability in response to terrorist attacks in #Dagestan. In particular, the dictator Vladimir Putin does not even plan to make a special address after the terrorist attack.

The Kremlin also announced that Russian society is "absolutely consolidated" in its lack of support for terrorist attacks in Dagestan and Russia in general. This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.



Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo @ChiefDI_Ukraine stated that Western military assistance is arriving in #UKRAINE, but that it will likely not arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the frontline situation until at least mid to late July 2024. Budanov stated in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer conducted on June 12 or 13 and published on June 23 that US and European weapons deliveries, including artillery ammunition, are arriving in Ukraine at a faster pace than several months ago but noted that Ukrainian forces need a high volume of weapons and "there is a question of volume."[1]

Budanov stated that "no Armageddon will emerge [on the frontline]" but that the frontline situation will remain difficult for at least one month. Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk also recently stated on June 15 that Ukrainian forces are still waiting for most of the military assistance that the US passed in late April 2024 to arrive in Ukraine, but that limited amounts of US security assistance arrivals have reduced Russia's artillery shell advantage from seven-to-one to five-to-one.[2]

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are attempting to make tactically and operationally significant gains before US military assistance arrives to Ukrainian forces at the frontline at scale, and that the initial arrival of Western-provided weaponry will take some time to have tactical to operational effect on the frontline.[3]



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Budanov stated that a sufficient quantity of US-provided long-range ATACMS missiles could allow Ukrainian forces to strike the Russian-built Kerch Strait Bridge in occupied Crimea and sever an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) between occupied Crimea and Russia.[4]

Budanov stated that Ukraine could isolate occupied Crimea, which the Russian military uses as a rear staging area, by conducting long-range ATACMS missile strikes against the Kerch Strait Bridge. The Russian military continues to use Crimea's GLOCs to transport military personnel, weapons, materiel, and fuel from Russia to the frontlines in Ukraine and reinforced its air defense umbrella to cover occupied southern Ukraine from Crimea.[5]

Ukrainian officials have recently stated that Russian forces have reduced their military logistics transport across the Kerch Strait Bridge, presumably due to efforts to establish logistics lines connecting mainland Russia and occupied Crimea through occupied southern Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, but the Kerch Strait Bridge likely remains essential to maintaining Russia's occupation of Crimea.[6]

- Ukrainian long-range strikes against the Kerch Strait Bridge would sever an important GLOC for Russian forces based in occupied Crimea and likely complicate their ability to maintain their occupation of and basing within the peninsula. The destruction of the bridge would force Russian military to rely on the long route along northern coast of the Sea of Azov and exacerbate vulnerabilities for Ukrainian forces to exploit along the Russian main GLOC.

A thread:

"I am calm about Trump's possible coming to power. He changed his position several times. I believe in the USA and in the fact that we will win," said Kyrylo @ChiefDI_Ukraine, the head of the State Administration of Ukraine, in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer.

KYIV, Ukraine — There have been at least 10 Kremlin attempts to kill one of Ukraine’s most admired heroes, the legendary head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

Russian agents have blown up his car. They even poisoned his wife.

She survived. He pledged revenge.

When I met the spy chief in his darkened office recently, during a rare interview with a foreign journalist, I asked whether the Russians are still trying to kill him. The poker-faced Budanov shrugged. “It’s normal,” he said.

Then, allowing himself a half-smile, the lieutenant general added: “Let’s put it this way: Since we are talking with you now, it means they are not succeeding.”

There are good reasons why the #Kremlin will continue to try.

/1
Budanov’s spy agency, known as HUR, has carried out some of Ukraine’s most stunning military successes, including long-range drone strikes inside Russian territory.


Meanwhile, the agency’s Magura sea drones — a game-changing Ukrainian invention — have helped push most of the Russian fleet

out of its main Black Sea harbor in occupied Crimea and back to ports on the Russian mainland.

These gains are probably Ukraine’s most important victories in the last year — and could lead to more surprising maritime successes to offset the stalemate on land.


#HUR headquarters is located on an isolated peninsula that juts into the Dnieper River. Inside a grim, gray, low-rise block, Budanov’s office is barely lit. He prefers to operate in the shadows — in military operations as well as at his desk.

Behind that book- and paper-laden desk hangs a large painting of an owl sinking its claws into a bat. The HUR adopted the owl as its symbol in 2016, two years after Moscow invaded Crimea, to troll the Russians. The bat is the symbol of the special operations unit of Russia’s military intelligence agency.

/2reuters.com/world/europe/u…
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Kovalenko: #Russia threatens #NATO countries with nuclear weapons, but it has no protection against a retaliatory strike. Analyzing the aggressor's potential

In the third year of a full-scale war in #Ukraine, the Russians continue to threaten the entire world with nuclear weapons and believe that their threats still have some meaning and weight.

- And if we really assume that #russia will strike #NATO countries, what will the result be? Who will suffer more and who has more opportunities to strike more powerfully - including in response? Let's try to figure it out.

------

The nuclear triad of the smoker

- When we talk about the Russian nuclear potential, we first of all mean the nuclear triad of the #Russian Federation, capable of using the entire range of weapons with nuclear warheads.

- These are ground assets (mobile and stationary), aviation complexes (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 and Tu-160) and a naval component (APC).

And here begins the most interesting.

- If we consider the potential of all these components, it turns out that it is extremely low and even dangerous for #russia itself.
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During the 30 years of the existence of such a country as the Russian Federation, most of the nuclear combat units and their carriers did not undergo proper regular maintenance and regular repair work. If we talk about stationary mine launchers, primarily for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), two-thirds of them on the territory of Russia have long ceased to be operational, and launches from the last third can threaten emergency situations.

☺️ #PutinTerrorist yesterday came out with a shitty "peace proposal" - the #Netherlands is based

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark @MinPres said that Russia should be involved in the peace process with Ukraine at some stage, but the dictator Putin does not want it at the moment. This is evidenced by his "peace conditions" in Ukraine.

"The fact that Putin came out with this crappy 'peace proposal' yesterday is a sign that he is panicking, that's good news," the politician said.

All the details from the summit

All continents together against the Russian Federation: the results of the first day of the Peace Summit in Switzerland, which brought together almost 100 countries. All details online

On Saturday, June 15, the Global Peace Summit organized by Ukraine started in Switzerland. Its basis is the Peace Formula - 3 out of 10 issues are planned to be discussed at the event: nuclear and food security, as well as the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war and children abducted by Russia.

The day before, on June 14, it became known that 92 world states and 8 organizations will participate in the summit , of which 57 will be represented at the highest level. The event will last two days - June 15 and 16, and the first of them has already ended.

The correspondent of is in the main media center of the summit, our publication conducts a text broadcast of the event.

22:45 – Zelenskyi spoke about his meeting with the President of Argentina, Javier Millay, during which the politicians discussed further steps in the implementation of individual points of the Peace Formula, as well as bilateral cooperation, in particular in the field of trade.

Thank you for participating in the inaugural Peace Summit. We appreciate the broad presence of Latin American countries at the Summit. I am sure that history will remember our long path to peace," the guarantor said.
/1OBOZ.UA 22:00 - President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that today was the day when the world began to approach a just peace .

"Thank you for participating in the Global Peace Summit! We all need peace. Glory to Ukraine!" - wrote the guarantor.

21:50 - The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, said that Russia should be involved in the peace process with Ukraine at some stage, but dictator Putin currently does not want it . This is evidenced by his "peace conditions" in Ukraine.

The fact that Putin came out with this shitty 'peace proposal' yesterday is a sign that he is panicking, this is good news," the politician said.
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The soldier of the #GUR with the call sign "Shaman" recalled the battles with the enemy and told about the crimes of the russian Federation

Soldiers from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of #UKRAINE were among those who met russian troops in the #Kyiv region at the end of February. Among them is a group of scouts who distinguished themselves in #Afghanistan in 2021, led by a fighter with the pseudonym "Shaman".

Voin recalls that in #Gostomel and #Buchi at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the russian Federation, the russians behaved "like rats."

Voin recalls: in Gostomel and Buchi, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, the Russians behaved "like rats." The memoirs of "Shaman" were published by the Canadian edition of The Globe & Mail

in the material devoted to the military intelligence of #UKRAINE.

The representative of the GUR MOU, nicknamed "Shaman", who was born in the Ukrainian Donbas, is only 30 years old. In the summer, he participated in a mission in Kabul, Afghanistan. The soldier describes those with whom he had to work then as "people who knew no fear and were ready to go anywhere."

In February 2022, all these soldiers met the invaders in #Kyiv region, #Kharkiv region and #Donbas.

"Shaman" was among them. A day before the start of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, he gathered a group of 12 scouts and created a unit from them, which would later become known as "Shamanbat". They were distinguished by patches with a stylized white skull on a black background.

The leadership of the GUR sent this newly formed group to the defense of the Gostomelsky airfield, the capture of which was especially important for the Russians, because this way they could transfer tanks and other armored vehicles to the suburbs of the capital for a further attack on Kyiv.

Already at dawn on February 24, the fighters of "Shaman" received confirmation: the double agent's data about the plans of the occupiers for Gostomel were reliable. And when the GUR special forces saw the enemy, they opened fire on them.

Several weeks of fierce fighting followed, and in the end Kyiv region was de-occupied. It was then that the international crimes of the invaders on the territory of Ukraine were revealed for the first time: the columns of the world media published creepy photos from the de-occupied areas in the north of Kyiv region and described the bodies of Ukrainians tortured to death found in populated areas, burned cars in which civilians tried to leave the combat zone, mass graves with people of different ages and genders.

The reaction of the Russians in Gostomel and Buchi was dictated by their fear. It was the reaction of a cornered rat who had no control or power. It was just chaos and they were doing maximum damage, just killing everyone around them," Shaman says.
NEXT:

The Fearless
An elite squad of fighters has been on the front lines of every major battle for Ukraine’s independence. This is the story of their war

MARK MACKINNON
ILLUSTRATIONS BY MIKO MACIASZEK
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED JUNE 6, 2024

The Ukrainian military helicopter had been shot down about seven kilometres behind Russian lines, crashing in a field browned by winter, on the edge of a leafless forest. Those aboard were scattered dead and mortally wounded across the burning landscape of southern Ukraine weeks after the Russian invasion.

Trying to reach the casualties – the crew of the helicopter, plus fighters who had been rescued from the besieged port city of Mariupol before the craft was shot down on its return trip – would be something close to a suicide mission. The last person who should have taken the assignment was Nazar Borovytskyi.

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The helicopter missions into Mariupol were seen as so risky that each team – usually a pilot, a mechanic and two special-forces fighters from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service – was only supposed to make the trip once.

- The soldiers joked among themselves that they were volunteering for seats on a one-way flight.

Nazar, 28, had already flown two such missions in the spring of 2022, escaping both times with a handful of injured fighters from a surrounded steel factory in a shattered city slowly falling under Russian control. Now one of the missions had gone awry, necessitating an even more dangerous rescue.

It was definitely not his turn, but when the commander asked for volunteers, Nazar asked to be sent back in.

In the framed photograph on the wall of the HUR headquarters, Nazar, muscular, with chiselled cheekbones and a dark blond beard, stands in the back row wearing a black T-shirt under his camouflage bulletproof vest.

Kovalenko: #Ukrainian drones began to destroy unique radars in #Russia. Why their loss is critical for the enemy

In the afternoon of May 24, the first photos and videos of the damaged over-the-horizon radar station "Voronezh-DM" in the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation were published.

- Just a few days later, it became known about a similar attack on the Voronezh-M radar already in the #Orenburg region. It is obvious that Ukrainian drones have begun to "focus" on these objects, but why exactly on them and what conclusions can be drawn from this?

More at:


Since the beginning of 2024, we have already become accustomed to regular reports of attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refineries (refineries) . The result of these strikes was a decrease in the export of oil products from the Russian Federation and an increase in fuel prices for domestic consumption. The essence of these actions was perfectly clear and did not require special explanations among the expert environment.

Starting from April 2024, the Defense Forces of Ukraine regularly strike the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimean peninsula, systematically destroying air defense systems, radio engineering nodes and airfields . And here, too, explanations of such actions are superfluous.

But what are over-the-horizon radar stations and why Ukrainian drones "took up" them - still deserves clarification.
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Radar "Voronezh"

Today, you can learn about such radars except for scant information from the discharge - let's take a look at the TTX in Wikipedia. Thanks to this excellent encyclopedia, open to all, you can learn that the over-the-horizon long-range radar stations "Voronezh" are part of the Missile Attack Warning System (MISAR) to detect the launch of intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles . These radars are an integral part of Russia's nuclear security complex, and there are 10 such stations on the territory of the aggressor country!

The coverage range of these radars is 6,000 km along the horizon and 8,000 km in height - with simultaneous control of up to 500 objects. Such characteristics allowed, for example, the "Voronezh-DM" radar, which was located in the Krasnodar Territory, to survey the sky over the temporarily occupied Crimea, part of the Mediterranean and the Balkans .

Russian red lines are beginning to blur, the Kremlin understands that time is not on their side. Interview with Ogryzko

In fact, #NATO has defined red lines, if they are crossed, the participation of the Alliance army in the war in #Ukraine️ will become possible.

- Russia, the occupying country, traditionally threatens nuclear weapons in response. At the same time, Russia's reaction indicates extreme fear and awareness that time is not on their side.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of #Ukraine️ Volodymyr Ogryzko told about this in an exclusive interview:

By: Tatyana Gaijevska

The occupying country Russia traditionally threatens nuclear weapons in response. At the same time, Russia's reaction indicates extreme fear and awareness that time is not on their side.

- NATO has actually identified two red lines, if crossed, the Alliance may directly intervene in the war in Ukraine. The first is the direct or indirect participation of a third country in the war. It is primarily about Belarus.

The second is a military provocation against the Baltic states, Poland or an attack on Moldova. At the same time, the Kremlin considers the participation of NATO troops in the war in Ukraine, as well as the transfer of certain types of weapons to us, in particular, F-16 fighters, to be a red line.

In particular, the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova, said that the aggressor country would consider these fighter jets carriers of nuclear weapons, regardless of the modification. Do you think NATO will be ready to deploy troops? Is the Kremlin capable of more than threats if this actually happens?

- Not able to. This statement shows that the fear in the Kremlin is rampant. They understand that Russian red lines are beginning to blur. Here we should thank President Macron that he even somehow mundanely drew the Kremlin's attention to the fact that he also has nuclear weapons, so don't swing your nuclear sticks here

So, I think that this is a continuation of the use of the very last argument that remained with the Kremlin - intimidation with nuclear weapons. It seems to me that this process will not stop, these theses will be repeated in other versions.

Although Western journalists latched onto the phrase of the non-führer that he was, they say, ready to reconcile with the West, to reduce tension, indirectly mentioned in a positive light about the countries that were members of the anti-Hitler coalition. But others quite rightly point out that he immediately disavowed this statement when he said that in case of which we will use our nuclear potential.

It seems to me that this is all a continuation of the same line, there is nothing new, they have nothing to offer. Therefore, there will be a kind of periodic activation of the topic of a nuclear attack. I think our Western partners will finally understand that this is a scarecrow.

- But do you allow a situation when, relatively speaking, the boot of a NATO soldier crosses the border of Ukraine?

- I don't know if they will be wearing boots. Moscow boots are usually worn, and Westerners wear special, very comfortable boots. But I think it would be a very strong signal for the Russian invaders that it's time to get out.

Although this black-mouthed representative of the Ministry of Propaganda (Zakharova. - Ed.) says that if French troops find themselves in Ukraine, they will be considered a legitimate target of Russian troops. But she does not understand that the Russian troops are also becoming a legitimate target for the French troops. And this is not only about French troops, but also any other NATO troops.
/1 /2
- Therefore, I think that this was also said from the understanding that time is not on their side. That the possibilities of the Russian economy are not limitless, that there are trends that indicate that there is nothing to fill the budget with.

- One of the latest examples is that Russia's main budget-forming firm, Gazprom, officially declared 6 billion in losses for the past year. So, the dreams that "we will freeze Europe and it will crawl to us on its knees, stop sanctions and will not help Ukraine" are breaking like the "Titanic" against an iceberg.

And that is why it is necessary to look for anything that can be intimidated, to distract some Western partners from practical assistance to Ukraine.

- Regarding the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail. Chinese President Xi Jinping said in an interview with "Figaro": "Nuclear weapons cannot be used, and nuclear war cannot be waged." Can Beijing play the role of a deterrent to Moscow?

- Xi Jinping is not saying anything new here, because such statements have been made before.
- All the heads of the official nuclear states have repeatedly confirmed this. The only point we need to pay attention to is that believing the statements of communist leaders - past and present, the statements of Russian fascists - is a rather risky story.

- These are statements, but the cases are completely different

A long thread ( in thr end you have link to read more from @TheStudyofWar )

ISW @TheStudyofWar explained why #Putin removed @SergeyShoigu from the position of Minister of Defense of the #Russian Federation and what is behind the new appointment

Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Minister of Defense, moving the general to the position of Secretary of the Security Council instead of Mykola Patrushev.

- Personnel reshuffles after the "presidential elections" indicate that he is taking significant steps to mobilize the country's economy and defense-industrial base to support the protracted war against #Ukraine️.

It is also possible that the Russian dictator is preparing Russia for a future confrontation with #NATO, the Institute for the Study of War suggested . Analysts pointed to the #Kremlin leader's long-standing "tactic" of quietly removing top officials, giving them secondary roles, rather than simply firing them.

- Putin "proposed" (his proposals are orders) the politician and scientist Belousov for the position of the new head of the Ministry of Defense.

Kremlin press secretary Dmytro Peskov told state media that Shoigu, who has served as Russia's defense minister since 2012, will now become the secretary of the Security Council and Putin's deputy at the Russian Military-Industrial Commission. He also reported that the Kremlin leader "dismissed" Patrushev from this position "in connection with his transfer to another job." Peskov did not specify the information about the latter, but assured that the Kremlin will announce his new role in the "near future." In addition, Putin's speaker stated that Army General Valery Gerasimov will remain the Chief of the General Staff (he is the Commander-in-Chief of the occupation forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine), and there are no plans to change this position at the moment.

ISW noted that this agency in Russia is an advisory body that also plays a role in the implementation of security policy and the development of Russian strategic culture. Therefore, Shoigu's appointment there makes his actual demotion from the prestigious post of defense minister less humiliating.

"Putin removed Shoigu from the direct chain of command at the Ministry of Defense, but gave him further influence in the security sphere. Shoigu remains an important and loyal subordinate, and sometimes a scapegoat, and Putin is likely to benefit from retaining his leadership and experience in some official position." , analysts concluded.

They drew attention to the telling fact that Shoigu's removal followed two high-profile incidents : the dismissal of his ally, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on corruption charges, and Putin's meeting with the general's political opponent, Tula Region Governor Oleksiy Dyumin, to discuss OPB updates. These moments, ISW suggests, were the main indicators of the Kremlin's policy in preparation for the removal of Shoigu from his long-standing post.

Shoigu's last appearance as Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation was at a coven on the occasion of May 9 in Moscow. Then the general of the occupying Russian army drove through Red Square and "saluted" the participants of Putin's war against Ukraine, who were driven to the "victory" parade

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Next ISW
@TheStudyofWar artical



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, 12
May 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Download the PDF


/1understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
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May 12, 2024, 8:15pm ET

Click here

to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here

to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here

to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2pm ET on May 12. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir #PutinIsaWarCriminal replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev.

- These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

- The Russian Federation Council posted a list of Putin's proposed cabinet ministers on May 12, which notably confirms that Putin has "proposed" Belousov as the new Minister of Defense (Putin's proposals are orders).[1]

#Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Kremlin newswire TASS that Shoigu, who has served as Russian defense minister since 2012 — will assume the position of Security Council Secretary and act as Putin's deputy on the Russian Military-Industrial Commission.[2]

Peskov also announced that Putin dismissed Patrushev from his former position as Security Council Secretary "due to [his] transfer to another job," which was not specified and that the Kremlin will announce his new role in the "near future."[3]

Peskov also noted that Army General Valery Gerasimov will remain Chief of the Russian General Staff, and a change in this position is not foreseen at this time.[4]

Gerasimov is also currently the overall theater commander for Russian forces in #Ukraine️.storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…
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Identification of war criminals of the Russian Federation — intelligence officers have determined who is shelling Ukraine with cruise missiles. LIST

▪️ Operatives and analysts of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine identified the personnel of the management and command of the units of the 22nd heavy bomber aviation division of the long-range aviation command of the air forces of the military space forces of the Russian Federation (military unit 06987, Engels airfield, Saratov region), involved in missile attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine .

▪️ The 22nd Vbad includes the 121st and 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiments:

121 VBAP - military unit 85927, "Engels" base airfield of Saratov Region, Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers;
52 VBAP - military unit 33310, "Shaykovka" base airfield, Kaluga region, Tu-22M3 long-range bombers.

▪️ The personnel of the division directly involved in the planning, organization and implementation of shelling of the territory of Ukraine with air-based cruise missiles Kh-22/Kh-32 (Tu-22M3) and Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 (Tu-95MS/ Tu-160).

❗️ It is these pilots who are responsible for numerous victims and destruction in Ukraine as a result of the criminal missile terror that they carry out from the territory of the Russian Federation.

▪️ The list of identified Russian war criminals can be found at the link.

❗️ We remind you that there will be a fair retribution for every war crime committed against Ukraine.

🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine!


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Ukraine protects the world

Identification of war criminals of the Russian Federation — spies have determined who is shelling Ukraine with "daggers". LIST

Identification of war criminals of the Russian Federation — spies have determined who is shelling Ukraine with "daggers". LIST:


Operatives and analysts of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine identified 29 people of the command, flight and technical staff of the 44th separate long-range aviation regiment of the Air Force of the Air Force of the Russian Federation.

Seven officers from the regiment's technical staff were also identified.

44 oap OsP (military unit 83122) was formed on December 1, 2021.

Place of permanent deployment: "Savasleyka" airfield, Nizhny Novgorod Region, Russian Federation.

The regiment has a two-squadron structure, staffed with up to 24 MiG-31K long-range fighter-interceptors.

The aircraft numbers of MiG-31K aircraft from the regiment were also established: RF-20862, RF-03230, RF-20882, RF-03231, RF-03234, RF-19275, RF-94268, RF-42251, RF-42253, RF -20867, RF-20883.

Armament: Kh-47M2 "Dagger" air-missile complex (500 kg warhead, possible nuclear weapons); purpose — delivering the fastest possible strikes at a distance of up to 2,000 km.

The hypersonic flight speed of the missile in the final section is achieved due to the acceleration of the carrier aircraft to supersonic parameters (that is, the MiG-31K performs the role of the "first stage").

We remind you that there will be a fair retribution for every war crime committed against Ukraine
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Wild caress" tactics: how #Ukrainian pilots use the Vietnam experience of the #UnitedStates to destroy Russian air defense

In battles against Russian air defense, #Ukrainian pilots use tactics that were developed by the #US Air Force in Vietnam.

This tactic involves jet pilots trying to attract the attention of the enemy's air defenses, causing them to point their radars at them. After detecting the source of the radar signals, the planes fire US AGM-88 high-velocity missiles (HARMs) before the Russian systems can launch surface-to-air missiles.

More details:


"Wild caress" tactics: how Ukrainian pilots use the Vietnam experience of the United States to destroy Russian air defense

By: Ivanna Shepel

According to Business Insider

, the appropriate tactic is that jet pilots try to attract the attention of the enemy's air defenses, prompting them to point their radars at them. After detecting the source of the radar signals, the planes fire American AGM-88 high-velocity missiles (HARMs) before the Russian systems can launch surface-to-air missiles.

Starting in mid-2022, the US began supplying Ukraine with HARM missiles, which enabled Ukrainian pilots to conduct anti-aircraft suppression (SEAD) and enemy anti-aircraft destruction (DEAD) operations.


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What does SEAD mean?

During the Vietnam War, Wild Weasels aircraft were tasked with destroying enemy anti-aircraft radars to clear the way for assault troops. They were equipped with radar receivers to detect the locations of enemy anti-aircraft systems and were initially armed with bombs, and later with special missiles that could attack radars.

The term "Wild Weasel" originated from the "Wild Weasel" project. According to the National Museum of the United States Air Force, this strategy was designed to counter air defense systems through direct attacks.

The missions, originally named "Project Ferret", refer to the ferret, a small carnivorous mammal that sneaks up to its prey in its lair to kill its prey. The missions were later renamed "Project Wild Weasel" to avoid confusion with the "Ferret" code name used during World War II for anti-radar radar bombers.

HARM is the latest in a series of air-to-surface missiles that weigh about 770 pounds and can fly about 90 miles. These missiles are capable of detecting and attacking enemy radars even when their radar systems are disabled.

Now the Vietnamese experience of the USA is being used by Ukrainian pilots in the fight against Russia.

"Ukraine is clearly learning from Western military thought. Ukraine pays great attention to the SEAD and DEAD missions," said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

He noted that these operations can be "extremely dangerous", especially for "wild weasel" crews. However, the main goal remains Russian air defense

The Only True Gamechanger for #Ukraine: System Integration of Weapons



Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion against #Ukraine, western public and media have been discussing which individual weapons system would be a “game changer”.

Such a weapon is expected to dramatically alter the chances for #Ukraine to change the fortunes of war.
- But in war, “combined arms” does the magic trick of augmenting the ability of the armed forces to tactically and operationally synchronize all different arms to win the fight.

- In the history of warfare, an individual weapons system could never play a decisive role of a game changer. The same is true for the Russo-#Ukrainian war.

The discussion about military game changers are understandable. Western support to #Ukraine was disputed from the very start, and decisions about different weapons systems were discussed one at a time.
- Hence, supporters of the assistance to #Ukraine had to argue why each individual weapons system would be important to #Ukrainians.

- In April-May 2022, the idea of delivering 155-mm artillery systems to #Ukraine started. By the end of May 2022, the west decided to supply air defense systems to Ukraine.

- Then time was spent on discussing whether tanks and infantry fighting vehicles should also make their way to #Ukraine.

From January 2023 onward, the west discussed whether to supply fighter jets and aircraft ordnance, including long range ammunition such as the British Storm Shadow or the #Germany #Taurus.

- As a result, deliveries of individual weapons, and not of integrated weapons systems, have unsurprisingly inflated expectations of consequential battlefield successes each time a new weapons type delivery had been greenlighted.

At the same time, the need for combined arms warfare has never taken hold in a wider audience. To be successful in battle #Ukraine needs a combination of artillery, armor, infantry, combat engineers, drones, electronic warfare, and air defense

Each of the weapon systems supplied by the west partially covered this need. But the whole effort does not rest on one individual system alone.
- Rather the combination of all these weapons systems and their proper employment in the war makes the difference. This is the only way forward, if the West wants to assist #Ukraine in properly using all these different means and tools for the conduct of war.
@perteng1
/1european-resilience.org/analytics/only… /2
Combined Warfare Replaced by Single Arms Discussion

Attempt to improve #Ukraine’s combined arms capability also regarded training.
- The necessity to rapidly increase the size of Ukraine’s armed forces to cover the extended frontline, as well as to guard its long border with Belarus and Russia, overburdened #Ukraine’s military training and education facilities.

- Hence, the West stepped in. In the spring of 2023 #Ukrainian soldiers were trained by the #UnitedStates, the #UnitedKingdom, and multiple European states in a training initiative financed by the #EuropeanUnion.

#Ukraine put great expectations in the west-provided training: after all, #NATO standards was the buzzword of the day. If Ukrainian forces were trained according to #NATO standards, they believed, they would use western weapons systems much more effectively.

- Combined with the supposed technical superiority of western weapons systems, this greater effectiveness should have increased Ukraine’s chances to conduct a successful summer offensive in 2023.

How the occupiers turn small Ukrainians into bearers of the ideas of the "Russian world" - an analyst from "Voice of Crimea" and the Center for Civic Enlightenment "Almenda"

Read the article
👇👇

Occupied Childhood: Ten Years of Militarization and Identity Destruction

The occupying power cannot compel protected persons to serve in its armed or auxiliary forces. Any pressure or propaganda aimed at ensuring voluntary entry into military service is prohibited. This is stated in Article 51 of the Convention on the Protection of the Civilian Population in Time of War

A 13-year-old boy from Jugenfolk in the uniform of a Wehrmacht private. 1945. Photo:
/1tinyurl.com/2abf9q6r
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All totalitarian and authoritarian states tried and are trying to exploit children. After all, children are the most vulnerable population, but also the best managed, manipulated part of society.

In addition, the future of the state is laid through childhood, and the entire society is actively influenced through children.

- History is full of examples of the reality of the use of childhood - one of the most striking examples was the janissary, when children were turned into weapons.
The 20th century had the most terrible totalitarian regimes that turned children into obedient cogs. When B. Mussolini came to power in fascist Italy, the children's and youth organization "Balila" was created, which unites children from 6 to 18 years old (all other children's organizations were banned).

In Nazi Germany, the Hitler Youth children's and youth organization permeated the entire children's environment, taking an active part in the spread of Nazi policies..

Letters from an American

Heather Cox Richardson

Yesterday on the social media site X, formerly Twitter, @MilesTaylorUSA wrote:

“After 2016, I helped lead the US gov[ernmen]t response to #Russia’s election interference. In 2024, foreign interference will be *worse.* Tech[nology is] more powerful.

- Adversaries more brazen. American public more susceptible. Political leaders across party lines MUST UNITE against this.”

Taylor served as chief of staff in the Department of Homeland Security under #Trump.

- Today, Catherine Belton of the @washingtonpost reported on a secret 2023 document from Russia’s Foreign Ministry calling for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures that attack “‘a coalition of unfriendly countries’ led by the United States.
- Those measures are designed to affect “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” of #Russia’s perceived adversaries.
/1 The plan is to weaken the #UnitedStates and convince other countries, particularly those in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, that the U.S. will not stand by its allies.

- By weakening those alliances, #Russian leaders hope to shift global power by strengthening Russia’s ties to #China, #Iran, and #NorthKorea and filling the vacuum left by the crumbling democratic alliances (although it is not at all clear that China is on board with this plan).

According to Belton, one of the academics who advised the authors of the Russian document suggested that Russia should-
“continue to facilitate the coming to power of isolationist right-wing forces in America,” “enable the destabilization of Latin American countries and the rise to power of extremist forces on the far left and far right there,” increase tensions between the U.S. and China over #Taiwan, and “escalate the situation in the Middle East around #Israel, #Iran and #Syria to distract the U.S. with the problems of this region.”
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Letters from an American:
Heather Cox Richardson
@HC_Richardson
240408

On Sunday, Representative Michael R. Turner (R-OH), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, said it is “absolutely true” that Republican members of Congress are parroting Russian propaganda. “We see directly coming from Russia attempts to mask communications that are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor,” he said on CNN’s State of the Union.

Turner was being questioned about an interview in which Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Russia specialist Julia Ioffe that “Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it’s infected a good chunk of my party’s base.” McCaul blamed right-wing media. When asked which Republicans he was talking about, McCaul answered that it is “obvious.”
/1 /2

Catherine Belton and Joseph Menn reviewed more than 100 internal Kremlin documents from 2022 and 2023 obtained by a European intelligence service and reported in the Washington Post today that the Russian government is running “an ongoing campaign that seeks to influence congressional and other political debates to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment.” Kremlin-backed trolls write fake “news articles, social media posts and comments that promote American isolationism, stir fear over the United States’ border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions” while claiming that “Biden’s policies are leading the U.S. toward collapse.”

Aaron Blake pointed out in the Washington Post that Republicans are increasingly warning that Russian propaganda has fouled their party. Blake notes that Russia specialist Fiona Hill publicly told Republicans during the 2019 impeachment inquiry into Trump that they were repeating “politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests,” but Republicans angrily objected.

Joakim von Braun

Swedish security and Eastern Europe/Russia expert

A thread

Source: ( In Swedish )



Report on the partisans of Ukraine

Sometimes you might think that Russia's nasty offensive war is all about the amount of artillery shells and who is leading Ukraine's fighting forces! Happily, the war is so much more complex and there are so many more positive factors to consider even in early 2024.

It did not take many days after Russia's illegal attack on Ukraine before Ukrainians who ended up behind Russian lines started their military activities. They wanted to make a real contribution to their homeland and began to gather like-minded fighters to form partisan forces according to the well-known pattern from the Second World War. However, the number of partisans would hardly have become so incredibly large if the Russians had not behaved so incredibly stupidly! By cracking down so harshly on peaceful demonstrations, by looting many homes and also carrying out thousands of rapes, the Russian military pushed the Ukrainians over the edge to face the Russians with violence.

Even before the summer of 2022, there were a number of functioning partisan units in Berdjansk, Simferopol, Melitopol and Kherson, among others. They also organized activities inside Russia, something they rarely publish detailed information about. Some of these units had been formed during the period 2014-2022, others after the second invasion in 2022.

Free Ukraine Resistance Movement

The unit was already formed in 2014 long before Russia's second invasion. Unlike the other partisan organizations, the "Free Ukraine Resistance Movement" works all over the country, both in the parts not occupied by the Russians and behind the lines. At the beginning of 2022, for example, you could start operations in the parts of the country that were free and then be able to start armed operations when the Russians were able to occupy smaller parts of Ukraine. However, it is clear that the development started from the organization and that those who were previously active have now chosen to work within other resistance and partisan organizations.

Atesh

The group that is probably the most active and successful is called Atesh and started in September 2022. It has its strongest base among the Crimean Tatars but also houses Ukrainians and Russians. In January 2024, they now seem to have organized between 1,600 and 2,000 women and men as informers, whistleblowers, agents, analysts and soldiers. In addition to Crimea and other occupied territories, Atesh has been able to start cells in Rostov Oblast, Moscow, Tatarstan and Siberia. The group has a very good business on the Internet and if you want to check out their business, the Ukrainian language can be translated at . Today, Telegram channels have over 51,000 subscribers.


/1facebook.com/share/p/HuyZ9H…
t.me/s/atesh_ua/
cepa.org/article/crimea… If you examine the arson, derailment of freight trains, murders of Russian police and military, and many other types of attacks from the Ukrainian side in Russia, you see that there are few places in the country where you can be completely safe. On the same weekend that a right-wing extremist was murdered in St. Petersburg with the help of a bomb, a Russian fighter jet was set on fire over in Vladivostok.

The business

The most important part of the partisan forces' activities is probably intelligence gathering and agent recruitment. Thanks to their ability to get close to the targets that Ukraine's armed forces are trying to knock out, they can, for example, communicate exact coordinates, the number of Russians and a number of other vital information. After an attack, the partisans can photograph the target from the ground and report the results of the force's attack. Regardless of all the claims about satellites, reconnaissance flights, signals intelligence and much else, eyes on the ground are what can provide the most important information.

Azov Resistance

However, Atesh are not alone in Crimea. There are more partisans here, both individual ditto and other groups. One of these is the partisan group Azov Resistance, which is found in the city of Mariupol. It has probably been absorbed by Atesj because very little info has been seen in the last year. In addition, the Azov Resistance should not be confused with the Azov Brigade, which operates on the Ukrainian side of the border.

Yellow Ribbon

The Yellow Band (Chovta stritjka in Ukrainian) was founded on 2022-04-25. It is a civil resistance movement that mainly works on "temporarily occupied territories". They work with posters, spray painting and many other forms of civil resistance. They also gather for demonstrations, flash mobs and secret resistance meetings where they raise morale and spread information. Very important activities when living under occupation. Thanks to the "Yellow Ribbon", the courage of many of the Ukrainians who may not dare to be active with weapons in hand is kept up.
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The #Russian dictator still dreams of stretching himself over the globe, at least on its #European part

Just yesterday I wrote about the obvious "collusion"

between #Putin and #Trump, today I will tell you how important collaboration with the Republicans is for the #Kremlin. Analysts from the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research clarified the details, publishing a clear plan of what #Moscow wants to do next with the war.


🫵🏼 The Russian Federation is secretly proposing new terms for negotiations with Ukraine (in fact, capitulation). They provide for:

👉🏼 Recognition of the Kremlin's right to control all occupied territories... plus Kharkov, and in some versions — Odesa;

👉🏼 A set of fantasies includes Kyiv's agreement not to join NATO and the appointment of a head of state approved by Russia.

👉🏼 The only concession is that Ukraine can join the EU.

🫵🏼 Mordor plans to implement its military-strategic fantasy in three stages.

👉🏼 Continuation of pressure along the entire length of the Ukrainian front, exhaustion of the Armed Forces.

👉🏼 Russian special services must break the determination of Ukraine's international partners to provide military aid.

👉🏼 After that, the Russian Federation begins further offensive operations in order to achieve significant - albeit slow - successes on the battlefield. The Kremlin is determined to use these gains as leverage on Kyiv to force it to capitulate on Russian terms.

🫵🏼 But, take it away, uncle, there is one big "but": the reserves of the Russian defense industry are running out and it is possible to achieve what is planned only if Ukraine loses international support (hello to the Republican Party of the USA):

👉🏼 The Kremlin believes that it will be able to maintain the current pace of aggression until 2025. And over the next two years, Moscow's military-industrial complex will exhaust most of the available reserves to replenish the army: the defense industry supports the current rate of production of armored vehicles thanks to the repair of outdated vehicles. The most serious limitation for the Russian Federation is the production of ammunition.

👉🏼 Therefore, the Russian victory strategy is exclusively a theory until Ukraine's international partners adequately provide the Armed Forces with resources. If support is maintained in the future, then the Russian Federation is unlikely to achieve significant success, and it will not make sense for Putin to prolong the war, because the army will be significantly depleted, and the Russian civilian industry will be destroyed.

🫵🏼 Support for the Ukrainian Resistance not only undermines the theory of the Kremlin's victory, but also gives enough time for the help of the Armed Forces, so that the Ukrainians can defeat the occupiers qualitatively, RUSI experts conclude.

NB Sometimes it seems that the Russian occupiers and the American Republican congressmen are fighting side by side, only on different parts of the front: the "elephants"

perform those tasks that the Kremlin cannot reach with its fighters, missiles, hackers and scouts. For some reason, it is hard to believe that #US conservatives signed up for this miserable mission for a long time.
/1t.me/orestokratiia/…
rusi.org/explore-our-re…
t.me/orestokratiia/… Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024.

Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
13 February 2024

Russian forces are likely to peak in late 2024, with increasing material challenges over the course of 2025.

Defeating Russia's attempt to subjugate Ukraine must be based upon an understanding of what Russia is trying to achieve, how it is intending to achieve its objectives, and its capacity to implement this plan.

- The Russian theory of victory has been through various iterations over the course of the war, but Moscow now has a clear plan for how it intends to proceed. This article seeks to outline Russia's intent in order to provide a basis for planning how its plan can be disrupted. Outlining Russian intent and capacity does not represent an assessment as to the likelihood of it succeeding.

Russian Strategic Objectives
Russia still maintains the strategic objective of bringing about the subjugation of Ukraine. It now believes that it is winning. Surrender terms currently being proposed by Russian intermediaries include Ukraine ceding the territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa;.
- agreeing not to join #NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia. The only significant concession Russia proposes is that what is left of Ukraine can join the EU.

The process by which Russia aims to bring about this outcome is in three stages. The first requires the continuation of pressure along the length of the Ukrainian front to drain the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU) munitions and reserves of personnel. Parallel to this effort, the Russian Special Services are tasked with breaking the resolve of Ukraine's international partners to continue to provide military aid.

- Once military aid has been significantly limited such that Ukrainian munition stocks become depleted, Russia intends to initiate further offensive operations to make significant – if slow – gains on the battlefield. These gains are then intended to be used as leverage against Kyiv to force capitulation on Russian terms.
The planning horizon for the implementation of these objectives, which is providing the baseline for Russian force generation and industrial outputs, is that victory should be achieved by 2026
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rusi.org/explore-our-re…

04.51

❗️ The air raid alert in Ukraine is related to the launch of Kh-101/555 missiles from the Tu-95 (updated)

✈️ A Tu-22M3 aircraft was recorded taking off from the Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region).

✈️ Previously, in the airspace of the Russian Federation 2 Tu-22M3 from the Olenya airfield (Murmansk region) and 2 Tu-22M3 from the Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region).

🚀 Another rocket in the Sumy region - heading west. The first missile entered the airspace of the Cherkasy region, heading west.

🚀The first group of missiles on the border of the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, heading southwest.

🚀The second group is in the northern part of Poltava region, southwestern course.

🚀The first group of missiles enters the airspace of the Vinnytsia region, heading west.

🚀The second group is on the border of Poltava and Kyiv regions, heading west.

❗️Rockets are moving along the border of the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions.

✈️ Cruise missiles were allegedly re-launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea region.

🚀The first group of missiles in the western part of Vinnytsia region changed course to the north-west (Starokonstantinov)

🚀The second group enters the airspace of the Vinnytsia region, heading southwest.

🚀The first group of missiles in the Zhytomyr region changed course to Kyiv

🚀The missiles fly over the Vinnytsia region, move towards the Zhytomyr region, then head towards Kyiv.

🚨 Kyiv - take shelter! There are rockets in your direction!

✅ Alarm clears 8:16.
t.me/Pravda_Gerashc… 06.04

❗️ Explosions in Kyiv, missile attack continues (updated)

"Air defense is operating in Kyiv. Be in shelters before the air raid warning clears!" — Sergey Popko, head of KMVA

🚨 7:11 - ballistics in the direction of the Dnieper!

The threat of ballistic weapons to the eastern and northeastern regions!

🚀Rockets in the direction of Kharkov! (probably X-22)

💥7:19 Explosions in the city! Details later. Don't leave your shelters! — Klitschko

🚀Rockets in the direction of Pavlograd
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Trhead:
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"Generation". Documentary project of Elena Grom
We continue to share the documentary projects of the finalists as part of the grant support for documentary photographers from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, which is implemented with the support of the International Press Institute.

Olena Grom works at the intersection of social reportage and conceptual photography. She works on the topics of the life of refugees and displaced persons in the territory of active hostilities and in the de-occupied territory. The artist sees her "mission" as highlighting the lives of people who find themselves in the "gray zone" or the zone close to military operations. The "Generation" project highlights the life and everyday life of children in the Kharkiv region.

Photo project "Generation"

Since 2016, I have been documenting the lives of children of war. About 14,000 children lived in Donbas. For many of them, there was no life without war, for others, war is already half of life. As a result of the full-scale offensive of Russia, the geography and scale of the war changed: the cities of Donbas were destroyed, the children whom I photographed fell into the occupation, became refugees, and were injured. Some died.

I believe that it is necessary to maintain the discourse about the children of war, so I created the photo project "Generation". I document the lives of young people who will soon become a full-fledged part of Ukrainian society. These children will receive identity cards, the right to vote and choose their future, they will receive powers and responsibilities, and they will inherit the mistakes and traumas of previous generations. They will have to carry on their shoulders the future that will grow out of today's militarized reality.

Zlata lives in rhe basement with her parents for several months.
The floor was covered with hay, and they slept on it , and they warmed themselves from the bulrush

Zlata lives with her parents in the Kharkiv region. Their village was under Russian occupation for eight months. The girl's house is located near the highway, along which convoys of Russian vehicles traveled 24 hours a day. It was scary in the house: the girl's family lived in the basement for several months. The floor was covered with hay, on which they slept and were warmed by the "burzuyka". There was no electricity or communication in the village. More than a year has passed since the deoccupation and the memories of the horror of the war are fading. However, the war does not allow us to forget about ourselves - sometimes the sounds of explosions can be heard in the village

Zlata lives with her parents in the Kharkiv region. Their village was under Russian occupation for eight months. The girl's house is located near the highway, along which convoys of Russian vehicles traveled 24 hours a day. It was scary in the house: the girl's family lived in the basement for several months. The floor was covered with hay, on which they slept and were warmed by the "burzuyka". There was no electricity or communication in the village. More than a year has passed since the deoccupation and the memories of the horror of the war are fading. However, the war does not allow us to forget about ourselves - sometimes the sounds of explosions can be heard in the village.

Russian soldiers constantly came to Yaroslav's house to search. Photo by Olena Grom


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Yaroslav studies in the first grade. He lives in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. All children in the village study online. The boy loves mathematics and dreams of becoming a soldier. In the first days of the full-scale offensive, the Russians shelled the village of Yaroslava. Most of the village went down to the basement of the school to hide from the shelling. A shell flew into the shelter and killed one man on the spot. The second man was seriously injured and died in hospital. The boy and his family were then in the fate of their house. They spent several months there, without light and heat. Russian soldiers constantly came to the boy's house with searches. Every time they checked all the rooms and threw things out of the dresser - they were looking for someone

Bohdana is 7 years old, and her favorite pastime is singing and dancing

Bohdana is 7 years old and is in the second grade. Bohdana lives with her parents, brother and sister in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. Her favorite pastime is singing and dancing. However, it cannot develop in this direction. The cultural center is destroyed and children are unable to attend clubs. In the first days of the war, the Russians heavily shelled their village. All the people were sitting in the basements, but the neighbor did not hide and died in his kitchen. On February 26, a shell came to his house.

People living in the village were forced to hide in basements for several months, without heat, light, communication, water and the most necessary things

Sofia studies in the second grade. Like the rest of the children in her village, she works online. Sofia likes to watch cartoons and draw. The girl lives with her older brother and parents in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. They spent the entire time of the occupation in the village and saw how Russian troops entered the village in March of last year, and in September they fled under the pressure of the Armed Forces. The girl's house was damaged during the shelling. Fortunately, Sofia and her family were in the basement at that moment

Alyona is five years old. The educational process in kindergarten takes place online. The girl loves her dog Tim and often draws him. Alyona's house is located in the Kharkiv region, from where it was almost impossible to leave during the occupation. Like most locals, the girl's parents stayed in the village. Some of them did not want to leave their homes, farms, and native places. Some thought that the war would end quickly. Some simply did not make it - but all of them ended up in the occupation of Kharkiv region. Sometimes people were able to leave, but under the threat of shelling every minute. During the hostilities, Alyona was very afraid of the sounds of aircraft. Russian helicopters and planes often circled over their village, and the girl was looking for shelter at that moment.

Serhiy is studying in the 6th grade and dreams of being a policeman. He lives in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. The boy and his parents stayed in their native village throughout the occupation. Near the village, the Russians built a military base where Tochka-U missiles were stored and launched (according to the Human Rights Watch investigation). The village suffered a lot from the Russian aggression and occupation. It is impossible to imagine what fear the children experienced during the shelling.

Before the full-scale invasion, Anastasia lived in Kharkiv with her mother Tatyana. In the first days of the war, Nastya was evacuated to Dnipro, and later to Lviv. There, the girl learned that her mother had died. Anastasia was sheltered by a family-type house, but she could not adapt there. In the end, the girl was adopted by Tatiana, an old friend of Nastya and her mother. Currently, Nastya lives with her new family in a liberated village in the Kharkiv region

A thread ( longest so far, hang on )

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The battle for Antonov International Airport, Ukraine.

By Sture Fredheim|Dec 22, 2023

36 hours that demolished the Kremlin's plans to conquer all of Ukraine through UDAR (Operational Shock).

"Sture has impressive and up-to-date knowledge of the Russian Armed Forces and the war in Ukraine, which he also presents in an interesting and educational way. His deep knowledge is also enough to be able to hold interesting discussions even with highly qualified personnel. As a former head of the army, I received regular reports from Sture, which broadened my picture of the situation and perception of the war. This article about the battle at the Antonov airport gave me in-depth knowledge and a more nuanced picture of the beginning of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Listen to Sture, his knowledge is unique, deep and important".

Karl L E Engelbrektson

Swedish Major General/ Major General

December 12, 2023

“What you saw, high up on the ridge, was a terrifying giant. The very thing that gave the giant his size was also the source of his greatest weakness. There is an important lesson in this, for battles against all kinds of giants. The mighty and the strong are not always what they appear to be.”

Malcolm Gladwell

Author's foreword

It is extremely difficult to get a clear and accurate picture of the events at Antonov Airport on February 24 and 25, 2022. The sources are scarce, many are not verifiable, the time information and distance information differ greatly and most factual information is, as a rule, grossly exaggerated.

Both sides and their sympathizers want to portray the fight for the airport as superhuman and heroic. Rather, it is the case that whoever made the fewest mistakes wins the battle. This article is based on a variety of international reports which have then been weighed against military technical and tactical realities. Some information may of course have been misinterpreted and the battle may have unfolded differently but I have tried to get as close to the truth as possible.

The choice to depict this particular battle is simple because it influenced the further development of the entire war. History repeats itself, there is a clear similarity with operation "Market Garden" September 1944, both battles sprung from the hubris of the leader, substandard and misinterpreted intelligence, underestimation of the enemy and that the mechanized relieving main force is delayed by narrow passages and unexpectedly strong resistance.

“Above all, we should recognize that the collapse of the #Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the #Russian nation, it became a genuine trauma. Tens of millions of our citizens and compatriots were suddenly outside Russian territory".

From that moment, the rhetoric from the Kremlin is filled with statements that cannot be misinterpreted: Ukrainians and Belarusians are referred to as Russians' "younger brothers", referring to the fact that Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are in fact "one people". President Putin has also said in repeated public contexts that "Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities".

The rhetoric is the basis for motivating and preparing the Russian population for what is to come: On the one hand, the annexation of Crimea (2014), the invasion and the low-scale war of eastern Ukraine, mainly in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (2014 – 2022), on the other hand the full-scale the invasion of #Ukraine (2022).

The key to Kyiv
Antonov International Airport (also known as Hostomel or Gostomel Airport, IATA designation GML), is an industrial test and cargo airport owned by Antonov, (which is part of UkrOboronProm State Concern, the group is owned by the Ukrainian state). The runway was also used by the Ukrainian Air Force. /2

The airport is located in the north-western suburbs of #Kiev, just over 26 km from the Mariinskyi Palace (the President's residence in the center of the city). The concrete runway has a length of 3,500 meters and a width of 56 meters. The landscape is flat and open surrounded by suburbs of Kiev: #Hostomel in the south, #Blystavytsia in the west and #Ozera in the northeast. To the west of the airport is hilly terrain that is wooded.

The location is of great strategic importance to an invasion force as the long, rugged airstrip so close to Ukraine's capital, Kiev, makes it an important bridgehead for airlifting in equipment, soldiers and supplies.

The location was considered so important that CIA director William Burns personally traveled to Ukraine at the end of January -22 and briefed Kyryto Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence service. Several other intelligence services warned of attacks on the Antonov airport in particular, including the head of #Estonia's intelligence service, Margo Grosberg.

The plan for the "Special Military Operation".

Russia's plan to conquer Ukraine was to quickly take control of Kiev (and thus all of Ukraine) within 72 hours. A "Coup De Main" (An offensive operation based on surprise, air supremacy and simultaneously executing active measures, to achieve success, in one swift blow.) Active measures included covertly knocking out important structural war-promoting functions and key personnel such as political, administrative and military leaders. These were recorded on the HVTL, (High Value Target List, soft targets), where the actions were to assassinate, kidnap or otherwise put the people out of action, while key functions would be sabotaged, blocked or destroyed.

- Executive infiltrators were appointed from various Russian organizations such as: SSO (Special Operations Forces, Kubinka-2, Moscow), Directorate "C" "Smerch" (affiliated with the FSB, Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation) and elements of the 45th Separate Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (linked to the GRU from Kubinka, Moscow).

The points on the HVTL were to be executed immediately before or during the start of the invasion.

An active choice in the original plan was not to destroy infrastructure in Ukraine as it would be needed intact when the conquest of the country would transition to administration.

The plan was drawn up not by the Russian General Staff, which had been the norm, but by the security service, the FSB. President Putin also refers to the plan as a "special military operation".

Antonov Airport forms a hub for the entire operation against Kiev. Due to its strategic location, much manpower and equipment could be quickly brought into Kiev via an airlift from the interior of Russia. This is to ensure the advance of the main force in Kiev.

The plan also explains why parts of Russia's National Guard (Rosgvardija) were among the invading troops against Kiev, their task was not as combatants but as a police force to keep order in the planned, quickly occupied Ukraine.

History:

Russia had 169,000 to 190,000 troops deployed on Ukraine's border before the invasion.

The invasion plan is according to the principle of UDAR, which is a term in the Russian art of war that would most closely be described as Operative shock, it is a high-risk plan which at the same time, if successful, gives a great reward.

- The plan is to make a quick main thrust at the heart of the Ukrainian leadership while large maneuver forces push deep into the country towards a number of major cities to create a paralysis of the Ukrainian armed forces. Within Soviet and Russian history, the methodology has been used successfully a number of times:

Operation Danube, Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. Where Ruzyne International Airport, outside Prague plays an important role.

Putin believes in achieving goals on the battlefield and is not ready to start negotiations in good faith - ISW

According to the Institute's analysts, the attacks of Russian troops around Avdiyivka also indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe in the possibility of achieving its goals with the help of military force and is unlikely to enter into peace negotiations. Except that the aggressor simply needs to buy time to prepare for future offensive operations

"Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war is likely to remain pointless, if not harmful, as long as Putin believes he can achieve his goals on the battlefield," ISW stated.


By: Maryna Lisnichuk

The head of Russia's aggressor country, Vladimir Putin, still believes that he will be able to achieve his goals in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, there can be no negotiations involving a ceasefire.

This was pointed out by the American Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War, ISW)

in a summary for November 4. Analysts reacted to the NBC article that the United States of America and the countries of the European Union allegedly started discussing possible negotiations with Moscow with Kyiv.

Although according to the NBC publication , US officials have no data or even signs that Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia will be able to continue the war until Western aid to the armed forces stops.


The ISW noted that they also did not notice any signs that Moscow is ready to start peace talks with Kyiv in good faith.

On November 2, the spokesman of the Russian dictator Dmytro Peskov expressed the Kremlin's disagreement with the characterization of the war against Ukraine as a "stalemate situation", saying that it "has not reached a dead end". He argued that the occupying forces of the Russian Federation still continue to conduct offensive operations.

According to the Institute's analysts, attacks by Russian troops around Avdiyivka also indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe in the possibility of achieving its goals with the help of military force and is unlikely to enter into peace negotiations. Except that the aggressor simply needs to buy time to prepare for future offensive operations.

"Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war is likely to remain pointless, if not harmful, as long as Putin believes he can achieve his goals on the battlefield," the ISW stated.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is not a stalemate . He recalled the predictions about the war, which were voiced at the beginning of the large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in February 2022


@TheStudyofWar

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 4, 2023, 7:15pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.


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Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:30pm ET on November 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the November 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s essay on the positional nature of warfare in Ukraine.[1] Zelensky stated during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on November 4 that the current situation on the frontlines is “not a stalemate” even if “time has passed” and “people are tired.” Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine prioritizes the safety of its servicemen and needs US F-16 fighter aircraft and air defenses to gain an advantage over Russian forces. Zelensky recalled that many observers were quick to call the battlefield situation in 2022 “a stalemate,” but that Ukrainian forces with several “tricks, tactics, [and] military operations” were able to liberate Kharkiv Oblast and west (right) bank Kherson Oblast. Zelensky added that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop at Russia’s currently occupied lines and noted that Ukraine “has no right to even think about giving up.” Zelensky’s statements largely mirror the main arguments in Zaluzhnyi’s essay entitled, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It

Zaluzhny’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” outlines Zaluzhnyi’s consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current “positional” stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied. Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war “is gradually moving to a positional form” and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides‘ continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia’s challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia’s failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style “trench war” and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.
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Russian bastards fired at a civilian object in the village of Groza, Kupyan district - 48 people were previously known to have died. Among them is a child, a 6-year-old boy.

It is also known about 6 wounded - also one child, a girl.

Debris analysis is ongoing.

🇺🇦Real War
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As of now, 49 people have died from the Russian terrorist attack in the Kharkiv region

🇺🇦Real War
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