How the occupiers turn small Ukrainians into bearers of the ideas of the "Russian world" - an analyst from "Voice of Crimea" and the Center for Civic Enlightenment "Almenda"

Read the article
👇👇

Occupied Childhood: Ten Years of Militarization and Identity Destruction

The occupying power cannot compel protected persons to serve in its armed or auxiliary forces. Any pressure or propaganda aimed at ensuring voluntary entry into military service is prohibited. This is stated in Article 51 of the Convention on the Protection of the Civilian Population in Time of War

A 13-year-old boy from Jugenfolk in the uniform of a Wehrmacht private. 1945. Photo:
/1tinyurl.com/2abf9q6r
/2

All totalitarian and authoritarian states tried and are trying to exploit children. After all, children are the most vulnerable population, but also the best managed, manipulated part of society.

In addition, the future of the state is laid through childhood, and the entire society is actively influenced through children.

- History is full of examples of the reality of the use of childhood - one of the most striking examples was the janissary, when children were turned into weapons.
The 20th century had the most terrible totalitarian regimes that turned children into obedient cogs. When B. Mussolini came to power in fascist Italy, the children's and youth organization "Balila" was created, which unites children from 6 to 18 years old (all other children's organizations were banned).

In Nazi Germany, the Hitler Youth children's and youth organization permeated the entire children's environment, taking an active part in the spread of Nazi policies..

Letters from an American

Heather Cox Richardson

Yesterday on the social media site X, formerly Twitter, @MilesTaylorUSA wrote:

“After 2016, I helped lead the US gov[ernmen]t response to #Russia’s election interference. In 2024, foreign interference will be *worse.* Tech[nology is] more powerful.

- Adversaries more brazen. American public more susceptible. Political leaders across party lines MUST UNITE against this.”

Taylor served as chief of staff in the Department of Homeland Security under #Trump.

- Today, Catherine Belton of the @washingtonpost reported on a secret 2023 document from Russia’s Foreign Ministry calling for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures that attack “‘a coalition of unfriendly countries’ led by the United States.
- Those measures are designed to affect “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” of #Russia’s perceived adversaries.
/1 The plan is to weaken the #UnitedStates and convince other countries, particularly those in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, that the U.S. will not stand by its allies.

- By weakening those alliances, #Russian leaders hope to shift global power by strengthening Russia’s ties to #China, #Iran, and #NorthKorea and filling the vacuum left by the crumbling democratic alliances (although it is not at all clear that China is on board with this plan).

According to Belton, one of the academics who advised the authors of the Russian document suggested that Russia should-
“continue to facilitate the coming to power of isolationist right-wing forces in America,” “enable the destabilization of Latin American countries and the rise to power of extremist forces on the far left and far right there,” increase tensions between the U.S. and China over #Taiwan, and “escalate the situation in the Middle East around #Israel, #Iran and #Syria to distract the U.S. with the problems of this region.”
/2

Letters from an American:
Heather Cox Richardson
@HC_Richardson
240408

On Sunday, Representative Michael R. Turner (R-OH), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, said it is “absolutely true” that Republican members of Congress are parroting Russian propaganda. “We see directly coming from Russia attempts to mask communications that are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor,” he said on CNN’s State of the Union.

Turner was being questioned about an interview in which Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Russia specialist Julia Ioffe that “Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it’s infected a good chunk of my party’s base.” McCaul blamed right-wing media. When asked which Republicans he was talking about, McCaul answered that it is “obvious.”
/1 /2

Catherine Belton and Joseph Menn reviewed more than 100 internal Kremlin documents from 2022 and 2023 obtained by a European intelligence service and reported in the Washington Post today that the Russian government is running “an ongoing campaign that seeks to influence congressional and other political debates to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment.” Kremlin-backed trolls write fake “news articles, social media posts and comments that promote American isolationism, stir fear over the United States’ border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions” while claiming that “Biden’s policies are leading the U.S. toward collapse.”

Aaron Blake pointed out in the Washington Post that Republicans are increasingly warning that Russian propaganda has fouled their party. Blake notes that Russia specialist Fiona Hill publicly told Republicans during the 2019 impeachment inquiry into Trump that they were repeating “politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests,” but Republicans angrily objected.

Joakim von Braun

Swedish security and Eastern Europe/Russia expert

A thread

Source: ( In Swedish )



Report on the partisans of Ukraine

Sometimes you might think that Russia's nasty offensive war is all about the amount of artillery shells and who is leading Ukraine's fighting forces! Happily, the war is so much more complex and there are so many more positive factors to consider even in early 2024.

It did not take many days after Russia's illegal attack on Ukraine before Ukrainians who ended up behind Russian lines started their military activities. They wanted to make a real contribution to their homeland and began to gather like-minded fighters to form partisan forces according to the well-known pattern from the Second World War. However, the number of partisans would hardly have become so incredibly large if the Russians had not behaved so incredibly stupidly! By cracking down so harshly on peaceful demonstrations, by looting many homes and also carrying out thousands of rapes, the Russian military pushed the Ukrainians over the edge to face the Russians with violence.

Even before the summer of 2022, there were a number of functioning partisan units in Berdjansk, Simferopol, Melitopol and Kherson, among others. They also organized activities inside Russia, something they rarely publish detailed information about. Some of these units had been formed during the period 2014-2022, others after the second invasion in 2022.

Free Ukraine Resistance Movement

The unit was already formed in 2014 long before Russia's second invasion. Unlike the other partisan organizations, the "Free Ukraine Resistance Movement" works all over the country, both in the parts not occupied by the Russians and behind the lines. At the beginning of 2022, for example, you could start operations in the parts of the country that were free and then be able to start armed operations when the Russians were able to occupy smaller parts of Ukraine. However, it is clear that the development started from the organization and that those who were previously active have now chosen to work within other resistance and partisan organizations.

Atesh

The group that is probably the most active and successful is called Atesh and started in September 2022. It has its strongest base among the Crimean Tatars but also houses Ukrainians and Russians. In January 2024, they now seem to have organized between 1,600 and 2,000 women and men as informers, whistleblowers, agents, analysts and soldiers. In addition to Crimea and other occupied territories, Atesh has been able to start cells in Rostov Oblast, Moscow, Tatarstan and Siberia. The group has a very good business on the Internet and if you want to check out their business, the Ukrainian language can be translated at . Today, Telegram channels have over 51,000 subscribers.


/1facebook.com/share/p/HuyZ9H…
t.me/s/atesh_ua/
cepa.org/article/crimea… If you examine the arson, derailment of freight trains, murders of Russian police and military, and many other types of attacks from the Ukrainian side in Russia, you see that there are few places in the country where you can be completely safe. On the same weekend that a right-wing extremist was murdered in St. Petersburg with the help of a bomb, a Russian fighter jet was set on fire over in Vladivostok.

The business

The most important part of the partisan forces' activities is probably intelligence gathering and agent recruitment. Thanks to their ability to get close to the targets that Ukraine's armed forces are trying to knock out, they can, for example, communicate exact coordinates, the number of Russians and a number of other vital information. After an attack, the partisans can photograph the target from the ground and report the results of the force's attack. Regardless of all the claims about satellites, reconnaissance flights, signals intelligence and much else, eyes on the ground are what can provide the most important information.

Azov Resistance

However, Atesh are not alone in Crimea. There are more partisans here, both individual ditto and other groups. One of these is the partisan group Azov Resistance, which is found in the city of Mariupol. It has probably been absorbed by Atesj because very little info has been seen in the last year. In addition, the Azov Resistance should not be confused with the Azov Brigade, which operates on the Ukrainian side of the border.

Yellow Ribbon

The Yellow Band (Chovta stritjka in Ukrainian) was founded on 2022-04-25. It is a civil resistance movement that mainly works on "temporarily occupied territories". They work with posters, spray painting and many other forms of civil resistance. They also gather for demonstrations, flash mobs and secret resistance meetings where they raise morale and spread information. Very important activities when living under occupation. Thanks to the "Yellow Ribbon", the courage of many of the Ukrainians who may not dare to be active with weapons in hand is kept up.
/2

The #Russian dictator still dreams of stretching himself over the globe, at least on its #European part

Just yesterday I wrote about the obvious "collusion"

between #Putin and #Trump, today I will tell you how important collaboration with the Republicans is for the #Kremlin. Analysts from the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research clarified the details, publishing a clear plan of what #Moscow wants to do next with the war.


🫵🏼 The Russian Federation is secretly proposing new terms for negotiations with Ukraine (in fact, capitulation). They provide for:

👉🏼 Recognition of the Kremlin's right to control all occupied territories... plus Kharkov, and in some versions — Odesa;

👉🏼 A set of fantasies includes Kyiv's agreement not to join NATO and the appointment of a head of state approved by Russia.

👉🏼 The only concession is that Ukraine can join the EU.

🫵🏼 Mordor plans to implement its military-strategic fantasy in three stages.

👉🏼 Continuation of pressure along the entire length of the Ukrainian front, exhaustion of the Armed Forces.

👉🏼 Russian special services must break the determination of Ukraine's international partners to provide military aid.

👉🏼 After that, the Russian Federation begins further offensive operations in order to achieve significant - albeit slow - successes on the battlefield. The Kremlin is determined to use these gains as leverage on Kyiv to force it to capitulate on Russian terms.

🫵🏼 But, take it away, uncle, there is one big "but": the reserves of the Russian defense industry are running out and it is possible to achieve what is planned only if Ukraine loses international support (hello to the Republican Party of the USA):

👉🏼 The Kremlin believes that it will be able to maintain the current pace of aggression until 2025. And over the next two years, Moscow's military-industrial complex will exhaust most of the available reserves to replenish the army: the defense industry supports the current rate of production of armored vehicles thanks to the repair of outdated vehicles. The most serious limitation for the Russian Federation is the production of ammunition.

👉🏼 Therefore, the Russian victory strategy is exclusively a theory until Ukraine's international partners adequately provide the Armed Forces with resources. If support is maintained in the future, then the Russian Federation is unlikely to achieve significant success, and it will not make sense for Putin to prolong the war, because the army will be significantly depleted, and the Russian civilian industry will be destroyed.

🫵🏼 Support for the Ukrainian Resistance not only undermines the theory of the Kremlin's victory, but also gives enough time for the help of the Armed Forces, so that the Ukrainians can defeat the occupiers qualitatively, RUSI experts conclude.

NB Sometimes it seems that the Russian occupiers and the American Republican congressmen are fighting side by side, only on different parts of the front: the "elephants"

perform those tasks that the Kremlin cannot reach with its fighters, missiles, hackers and scouts. For some reason, it is hard to believe that #US conservatives signed up for this miserable mission for a long time.
/1t.me/orestokratiia/…
rusi.org/explore-our-re…
t.me/orestokratiia/… Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024.

Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
13 February 2024

Russian forces are likely to peak in late 2024, with increasing material challenges over the course of 2025.

Defeating Russia's attempt to subjugate Ukraine must be based upon an understanding of what Russia is trying to achieve, how it is intending to achieve its objectives, and its capacity to implement this plan.

- The Russian theory of victory has been through various iterations over the course of the war, but Moscow now has a clear plan for how it intends to proceed. This article seeks to outline Russia's intent in order to provide a basis for planning how its plan can be disrupted. Outlining Russian intent and capacity does not represent an assessment as to the likelihood of it succeeding.

Russian Strategic Objectives
Russia still maintains the strategic objective of bringing about the subjugation of Ukraine. It now believes that it is winning. Surrender terms currently being proposed by Russian intermediaries include Ukraine ceding the territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa;.
- agreeing not to join #NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia. The only significant concession Russia proposes is that what is left of Ukraine can join the EU.

The process by which Russia aims to bring about this outcome is in three stages. The first requires the continuation of pressure along the length of the Ukrainian front to drain the Armed Forces of Ukraine's (AFU) munitions and reserves of personnel. Parallel to this effort, the Russian Special Services are tasked with breaking the resolve of Ukraine's international partners to continue to provide military aid.

- Once military aid has been significantly limited such that Ukrainian munition stocks become depleted, Russia intends to initiate further offensive operations to make significant – if slow – gains on the battlefield. These gains are then intended to be used as leverage against Kyiv to force capitulation on Russian terms.
The planning horizon for the implementation of these objectives, which is providing the baseline for Russian force generation and industrial outputs, is that victory should be achieved by 2026
/2

rusi.org/explore-our-re…

04.51

❗️ The air raid alert in Ukraine is related to the launch of Kh-101/555 missiles from the Tu-95 (updated)

✈️ A Tu-22M3 aircraft was recorded taking off from the Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region).

✈️ Previously, in the airspace of the Russian Federation 2 Tu-22M3 from the Olenya airfield (Murmansk region) and 2 Tu-22M3 from the Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga region).

🚀 Another rocket in the Sumy region - heading west. The first missile entered the airspace of the Cherkasy region, heading west.

🚀The first group of missiles on the border of the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions, heading southwest.

🚀The second group is in the northern part of Poltava region, southwestern course.

🚀The first group of missiles enters the airspace of the Vinnytsia region, heading west.

🚀The second group is on the border of Poltava and Kyiv regions, heading west.

❗️Rockets are moving along the border of the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions.

✈️ Cruise missiles were allegedly re-launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea region.

🚀The first group of missiles in the western part of Vinnytsia region changed course to the north-west (Starokonstantinov)

🚀The second group enters the airspace of the Vinnytsia region, heading southwest.

🚀The first group of missiles in the Zhytomyr region changed course to Kyiv

🚀The missiles fly over the Vinnytsia region, move towards the Zhytomyr region, then head towards Kyiv.

🚨 Kyiv - take shelter! There are rockets in your direction!

✅ Alarm clears 8:16.
t.me/Pravda_Gerashc… 06.04

❗️ Explosions in Kyiv, missile attack continues (updated)

"Air defense is operating in Kyiv. Be in shelters before the air raid warning clears!" — Sergey Popko, head of KMVA

🚨 7:11 - ballistics in the direction of the Dnieper!

The threat of ballistic weapons to the eastern and northeastern regions!

🚀Rockets in the direction of Kharkov! (probably X-22)

💥7:19 Explosions in the city! Details later. Don't leave your shelters! — Klitschko

🚀Rockets in the direction of Pavlograd
/2

Trhead:
/1

"Generation". Documentary project of Elena Grom
We continue to share the documentary projects of the finalists as part of the grant support for documentary photographers from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, which is implemented with the support of the International Press Institute.

Olena Grom works at the intersection of social reportage and conceptual photography. She works on the topics of the life of refugees and displaced persons in the territory of active hostilities and in the de-occupied territory. The artist sees her "mission" as highlighting the lives of people who find themselves in the "gray zone" or the zone close to military operations. The "Generation" project highlights the life and everyday life of children in the Kharkiv region.

Photo project "Generation"

Since 2016, I have been documenting the lives of children of war. About 14,000 children lived in Donbas. For many of them, there was no life without war, for others, war is already half of life. As a result of the full-scale offensive of Russia, the geography and scale of the war changed: the cities of Donbas were destroyed, the children whom I photographed fell into the occupation, became refugees, and were injured. Some died.

I believe that it is necessary to maintain the discourse about the children of war, so I created the photo project "Generation". I document the lives of young people who will soon become a full-fledged part of Ukrainian society. These children will receive identity cards, the right to vote and choose their future, they will receive powers and responsibilities, and they will inherit the mistakes and traumas of previous generations. They will have to carry on their shoulders the future that will grow out of today's militarized reality.

Zlata lives in rhe basement with her parents for several months.
The floor was covered with hay, and they slept on it , and they warmed themselves from the bulrush

Zlata lives with her parents in the Kharkiv region. Their village was under Russian occupation for eight months. The girl's house is located near the highway, along which convoys of Russian vehicles traveled 24 hours a day. It was scary in the house: the girl's family lived in the basement for several months. The floor was covered with hay, on which they slept and were warmed by the "burzuyka". There was no electricity or communication in the village. More than a year has passed since the deoccupation and the memories of the horror of the war are fading. However, the war does not allow us to forget about ourselves - sometimes the sounds of explosions can be heard in the village

Zlata lives with her parents in the Kharkiv region. Their village was under Russian occupation for eight months. The girl's house is located near the highway, along which convoys of Russian vehicles traveled 24 hours a day. It was scary in the house: the girl's family lived in the basement for several months. The floor was covered with hay, on which they slept and were warmed by the "burzuyka". There was no electricity or communication in the village. More than a year has passed since the deoccupation and the memories of the horror of the war are fading. However, the war does not allow us to forget about ourselves - sometimes the sounds of explosions can be heard in the village.

Russian soldiers constantly came to Yaroslav's house to search. Photo by Olena Grom


/2

Yaroslav studies in the first grade. He lives in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. All children in the village study online. The boy loves mathematics and dreams of becoming a soldier. In the first days of the full-scale offensive, the Russians shelled the village of Yaroslava. Most of the village went down to the basement of the school to hide from the shelling. A shell flew into the shelter and killed one man on the spot. The second man was seriously injured and died in hospital. The boy and his family were then in the fate of their house. They spent several months there, without light and heat. Russian soldiers constantly came to the boy's house with searches. Every time they checked all the rooms and threw things out of the dresser - they were looking for someone

Bohdana is 7 years old, and her favorite pastime is singing and dancing

Bohdana is 7 years old and is in the second grade. Bohdana lives with her parents, brother and sister in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. Her favorite pastime is singing and dancing. However, it cannot develop in this direction. The cultural center is destroyed and children are unable to attend clubs. In the first days of the war, the Russians heavily shelled their village. All the people were sitting in the basements, but the neighbor did not hide and died in his kitchen. On February 26, a shell came to his house.

People living in the village were forced to hide in basements for several months, without heat, light, communication, water and the most necessary things

Sofia studies in the second grade. Like the rest of the children in her village, she works online. Sofia likes to watch cartoons and draw. The girl lives with her older brother and parents in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. They spent the entire time of the occupation in the village and saw how Russian troops entered the village in March of last year, and in September they fled under the pressure of the Armed Forces. The girl's house was damaged during the shelling. Fortunately, Sofia and her family were in the basement at that moment

Alyona is five years old. The educational process in kindergarten takes place online. The girl loves her dog Tim and often draws him. Alyona's house is located in the Kharkiv region, from where it was almost impossible to leave during the occupation. Like most locals, the girl's parents stayed in the village. Some of them did not want to leave their homes, farms, and native places. Some thought that the war would end quickly. Some simply did not make it - but all of them ended up in the occupation of Kharkiv region. Sometimes people were able to leave, but under the threat of shelling every minute. During the hostilities, Alyona was very afraid of the sounds of aircraft. Russian helicopters and planes often circled over their village, and the girl was looking for shelter at that moment.

Serhiy is studying in the 6th grade and dreams of being a policeman. He lives in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv region. The boy and his parents stayed in their native village throughout the occupation. Near the village, the Russians built a military base where Tochka-U missiles were stored and launched (according to the Human Rights Watch investigation). The village suffered a lot from the Russian aggression and occupation. It is impossible to imagine what fear the children experienced during the shelling.

Before the full-scale invasion, Anastasia lived in Kharkiv with her mother Tatyana. In the first days of the war, Nastya was evacuated to Dnipro, and later to Lviv. There, the girl learned that her mother had died. Anastasia was sheltered by a family-type house, but she could not adapt there. In the end, the girl was adopted by Tatiana, an old friend of Nastya and her mother. Currently, Nastya lives with her new family in a liberated village in the Kharkiv region

A thread ( longest so far, hang on )

/1

The battle for Antonov International Airport, Ukraine.

By Sture Fredheim|Dec 22, 2023

36 hours that demolished the Kremlin's plans to conquer all of Ukraine through UDAR (Operational Shock).

"Sture has impressive and up-to-date knowledge of the Russian Armed Forces and the war in Ukraine, which he also presents in an interesting and educational way. His deep knowledge is also enough to be able to hold interesting discussions even with highly qualified personnel. As a former head of the army, I received regular reports from Sture, which broadened my picture of the situation and perception of the war. This article about the battle at the Antonov airport gave me in-depth knowledge and a more nuanced picture of the beginning of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Listen to Sture, his knowledge is unique, deep and important".

Karl L E Engelbrektson

Swedish Major General/ Major General

December 12, 2023

“What you saw, high up on the ridge, was a terrifying giant. The very thing that gave the giant his size was also the source of his greatest weakness. There is an important lesson in this, for battles against all kinds of giants. The mighty and the strong are not always what they appear to be.”

Malcolm Gladwell

Author's foreword

It is extremely difficult to get a clear and accurate picture of the events at Antonov Airport on February 24 and 25, 2022. The sources are scarce, many are not verifiable, the time information and distance information differ greatly and most factual information is, as a rule, grossly exaggerated.

Both sides and their sympathizers want to portray the fight for the airport as superhuman and heroic. Rather, it is the case that whoever made the fewest mistakes wins the battle. This article is based on a variety of international reports which have then been weighed against military technical and tactical realities. Some information may of course have been misinterpreted and the battle may have unfolded differently but I have tried to get as close to the truth as possible.

The choice to depict this particular battle is simple because it influenced the further development of the entire war. History repeats itself, there is a clear similarity with operation "Market Garden" September 1944, both battles sprung from the hubris of the leader, substandard and misinterpreted intelligence, underestimation of the enemy and that the mechanized relieving main force is delayed by narrow passages and unexpectedly strong resistance.

“Above all, we should recognize that the collapse of the #Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the #Russian nation, it became a genuine trauma. Tens of millions of our citizens and compatriots were suddenly outside Russian territory".

From that moment, the rhetoric from the Kremlin is filled with statements that cannot be misinterpreted: Ukrainians and Belarusians are referred to as Russians' "younger brothers", referring to the fact that Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are in fact "one people". President Putin has also said in repeated public contexts that "Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities".

The rhetoric is the basis for motivating and preparing the Russian population for what is to come: On the one hand, the annexation of Crimea (2014), the invasion and the low-scale war of eastern Ukraine, mainly in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk (2014 – 2022), on the other hand the full-scale the invasion of #Ukraine (2022).

The key to Kyiv
Antonov International Airport (also known as Hostomel or Gostomel Airport, IATA designation GML), is an industrial test and cargo airport owned by Antonov, (which is part of UkrOboronProm State Concern, the group is owned by the Ukrainian state). The runway was also used by the Ukrainian Air Force. /2

The airport is located in the north-western suburbs of #Kiev, just over 26 km from the Mariinskyi Palace (the President's residence in the center of the city). The concrete runway has a length of 3,500 meters and a width of 56 meters. The landscape is flat and open surrounded by suburbs of Kiev: #Hostomel in the south, #Blystavytsia in the west and #Ozera in the northeast. To the west of the airport is hilly terrain that is wooded.

The location is of great strategic importance to an invasion force as the long, rugged airstrip so close to Ukraine's capital, Kiev, makes it an important bridgehead for airlifting in equipment, soldiers and supplies.

The location was considered so important that CIA director William Burns personally traveled to Ukraine at the end of January -22 and briefed Kyryto Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence service. Several other intelligence services warned of attacks on the Antonov airport in particular, including the head of #Estonia's intelligence service, Margo Grosberg.

The plan for the "Special Military Operation".

Russia's plan to conquer Ukraine was to quickly take control of Kiev (and thus all of Ukraine) within 72 hours. A "Coup De Main" (An offensive operation based on surprise, air supremacy and simultaneously executing active measures, to achieve success, in one swift blow.) Active measures included covertly knocking out important structural war-promoting functions and key personnel such as political, administrative and military leaders. These were recorded on the HVTL, (High Value Target List, soft targets), where the actions were to assassinate, kidnap or otherwise put the people out of action, while key functions would be sabotaged, blocked or destroyed.

- Executive infiltrators were appointed from various Russian organizations such as: SSO (Special Operations Forces, Kubinka-2, Moscow), Directorate "C" "Smerch" (affiliated with the FSB, Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation) and elements of the 45th Separate Guards Spetsnaz Brigade (linked to the GRU from Kubinka, Moscow).

The points on the HVTL were to be executed immediately before or during the start of the invasion.

An active choice in the original plan was not to destroy infrastructure in Ukraine as it would be needed intact when the conquest of the country would transition to administration.

The plan was drawn up not by the Russian General Staff, which had been the norm, but by the security service, the FSB. President Putin also refers to the plan as a "special military operation".

Antonov Airport forms a hub for the entire operation against Kiev. Due to its strategic location, much manpower and equipment could be quickly brought into Kiev via an airlift from the interior of Russia. This is to ensure the advance of the main force in Kiev.

The plan also explains why parts of Russia's National Guard (Rosgvardija) were among the invading troops against Kiev, their task was not as combatants but as a police force to keep order in the planned, quickly occupied Ukraine.

History:

Russia had 169,000 to 190,000 troops deployed on Ukraine's border before the invasion.

The invasion plan is according to the principle of UDAR, which is a term in the Russian art of war that would most closely be described as Operative shock, it is a high-risk plan which at the same time, if successful, gives a great reward.

- The plan is to make a quick main thrust at the heart of the Ukrainian leadership while large maneuver forces push deep into the country towards a number of major cities to create a paralysis of the Ukrainian armed forces. Within Soviet and Russian history, the methodology has been used successfully a number of times:

Operation Danube, Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. Where Ruzyne International Airport, outside Prague plays an important role.

Putin believes in achieving goals on the battlefield and is not ready to start negotiations in good faith - ISW

According to the Institute's analysts, the attacks of Russian troops around Avdiyivka also indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe in the possibility of achieving its goals with the help of military force and is unlikely to enter into peace negotiations. Except that the aggressor simply needs to buy time to prepare for future offensive operations

"Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war is likely to remain pointless, if not harmful, as long as Putin believes he can achieve his goals on the battlefield," ISW stated.


By: Maryna Lisnichuk

The head of Russia's aggressor country, Vladimir Putin, still believes that he will be able to achieve his goals in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, there can be no negotiations involving a ceasefire.

This was pointed out by the American Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War, ISW)

in a summary for November 4. Analysts reacted to the NBC article that the United States of America and the countries of the European Union allegedly started discussing possible negotiations with Moscow with Kyiv.

Although according to the NBC publication , US officials have no data or even signs that Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine or doubts that Russia will be able to continue the war until Western aid to the armed forces stops.


The ISW noted that they also did not notice any signs that Moscow is ready to start peace talks with Kyiv in good faith.

On November 2, the spokesman of the Russian dictator Dmytro Peskov expressed the Kremlin's disagreement with the characterization of the war against Ukraine as a "stalemate situation", saying that it "has not reached a dead end". He argued that the occupying forces of the Russian Federation still continue to conduct offensive operations.

According to the Institute's analysts, attacks by Russian troops around Avdiyivka also indicate that the Kremlin continues to believe in the possibility of achieving its goals with the help of military force and is unlikely to enter into peace negotiations. Except that the aggressor simply needs to buy time to prepare for future offensive operations.

"Pressuring Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war is likely to remain pointless, if not harmful, as long as Putin believes he can achieve his goals on the battlefield," the ISW stated.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is not a stalemate . He recalled the predictions about the war, which were voiced at the beginning of the large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in February 2022


@TheStudyofWar

👇

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 4, 2023, 7:15pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.


/1
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:30pm ET on November 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the November 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the war in Ukraine is not a “stalemate” in a comment to the media about Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s essay on the positional nature of warfare in Ukraine.[1] Zelensky stated during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on November 4 that the current situation on the frontlines is “not a stalemate” even if “time has passed” and “people are tired.” Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine prioritizes the safety of its servicemen and needs US F-16 fighter aircraft and air defenses to gain an advantage over Russian forces. Zelensky recalled that many observers were quick to call the battlefield situation in 2022 “a stalemate,” but that Ukrainian forces with several “tricks, tactics, [and] military operations” were able to liberate Kharkiv Oblast and west (right) bank Kherson Oblast. Zelensky added that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop at Russia’s currently occupied lines and noted that Ukraine “has no right to even think about giving up.” Zelensky’s statements largely mirror the main arguments in Zaluzhnyi’s essay entitled, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It

Zaluzhny’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” outlines Zaluzhnyi’s consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current “positional” stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied. Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war “is gradually moving to a positional form” and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides‘ continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia’s challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia’s failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style “trench war” and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.
/2

Russian bastards fired at a civilian object in the village of Groza, Kupyan district - 48 people were previously known to have died. Among them is a child, a 6-year-old boy.

It is also known about 6 wounded - also one child, a girl.

Debris analysis is ongoing.

🇺🇦Real War
/1



As of now, 49 people have died from the Russian terrorist attack in the Kharkiv region

🇺🇦Real War
/2

Part 2 of article on Ukraine's opportunities by Joakim von Braun intelligence analyst and expert on Russian military power. This really instills faith and hope for Ukraine! Read like and share!

-‐-------

The General Staff reports

- Too many distrust the detailed casualty… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1695706330038784196

Part2
/2

As it now stands, the Ukrainians seem to have got half a dozen more partisan units up and running behind the Russian front, which must be described as a real success. Without describing here exactly to the Russians how Ukraine succeeds in supporting and communicating… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

🔹 After intensive negotiations, NATO allies reached a consensus on removing the MAP from Ukraine's path to NATO membership

🔹 Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke in defense of the US decision to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine and called on the… https://t.co/2eCrXlBFeOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
- Kyiv and Tokyo agree on a meeting between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida on Wednesday on the sidelines of the summit of NATO leaders in Lithuania - Kyodo.

- German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the provision of… https://t.co/Z91pr6sIGHtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Zelenskyy to ABC: How Russia-Ukraine war could end, thoughts on US politics and Putin's weakness

In a wide-ranging new interview with ABC News from his country's capital, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that he would "never" agree to cede any territory to… https://t.co/GxspVTfrrWtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
It's an internal, domestic policy issue. It's up for Americans to decide, and I would hate to interfere," Zelenskyy said. "But it is important for us to preserve the bipartisan support of Ukraine ... We understand that there are some dangerous signals coming from particular… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

In the area of ​​the Berkhiv Reservoir, the soldiers of Ukraine occupied an important height. She can contribute to the further entourage of Bakhmut.

We have collected for you information about the four hundred and eightyth day of the war
ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/372…

In the area of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… - Cholera-like vibrio and a significant excess of lactose-positive Escherichia coli were isolated in the Ingulets River and the Dnipro-Buzka estuary in the Mykolaiv Oblast . In the Dnipro-Buzka estuary, the maximum permissible concentration of ammonia is exceeded - Mykolaiv… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Joakim von Braun, Swedish most prominent security expert, on Russia and eastern Europe
230610
Time14.30

Putin faces resistance - Russians, Karelians and Ingermanlanders part of a big problem
Before we all get engrossed in Ukraine's offensive against the Russian invaders, I… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Brain Drain
In addition to those arrested by Russian police, hundreds of thousands have also voted with their feet and fled their homeland. Russia has suffered from "Brain Drain" more than any other nation. The number of suicides also seems to have increased and many of them… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

In an interview with Glavkom, the head of Mykolaiv OVA Vitaly Kim tells why he "disappeared from the radar", how residents and businesses are returning to Mykolaiv Oblast, and where the local fans of Russia have gone.
glavcom.ua/longreads/vita…

Vitaly Kim: Now people don't need a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… By this battle, do you mean the counteroffensive that has been announced so many times ?

There is a task from the president to liberate all territories within the borders of 1991, so we will work permanently until we complete the task or until new teams arrive.

"Part of the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

In an interview with Glavkom, MEP Rasa Yuknyavichene talks about when Ukraine can receive an invitation to NATO, how to remove Putin from power, and what the consequences of Russia's collapse could be
glavcom.ua/interviews/dep…

Member of the European Parliament Rasa Yuknyavichene:… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… In an interview with Glavkom, Rasa Yuknyavichene talks about when Ukraine can receive an invitation to NATO, how to remove Putin from power, and what the consequences of Russia's collapse could be.

"Ukraine should be invited to NATO in 2023-2024"
The NATO summit will be held in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Local residents en masse leave Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast (Russia). This is evidenced by hundreds of evacuation messages in city chat rooms
glavcom.ua/world/observe/…

The situation in Belgorod region: residents of the Russian Shebekino are fleeing the city (updated)

By:… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… It is worth noting that the city of Shebekino belongs to Slobid Ukraine, which was annexed to the RSFSR in the 1920s. In addition, Ukrainian is still spoken in the Belgorod region .
glavcom.ua/world/observe/…
/2

The full-scale war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia in international sports made a number of athletes from the aggressor country think about changing their citizenship. However, most of the people fleeing from the Russian Federation are not going to the CIS countries, but… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… HUNGARY . After the sanctions, Russian figure skaters are slowly spreading around the world. Yes, a whole company from the Russian Federation decided to skate for the Hungarian national team. Polina Jumaniyazova from Moscow, Oleksiy and Oleksandr Vlasenko from Tyumen, who studied… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

‼️ Explosions were also heard in Odintsovo near Moscow and Krasnogorsk...

🇺🇦 Donbas Operational
t.me/Donbas_Operati…

/1 twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ‼️ Staff from the Moscow region...

🇺🇦 Donbas Operational
/2 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

A thread translated from Swedish ..

By : Joakim von Braun Swedish most interest expert in Russia, Eastern Europe, espionage and history.
Study of so iallafall antropologi
Security leader Swedish Broadcasting

Read:

Russian attack on Russia!

A few days ago we were able to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Extensive database

Since the beginning of 2023, I have started building a database that contains a large number of deliberate attacks on Russian society in the form of, among other things, arson at military recruitment offices and buildings belonging to the FSB, the Ministry of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…