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Ukraine is not conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations with Russia, – Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured that Ukraine is not conducting any backroom negotiations with the aggressor state Russia behind the backs of its partners. Kyiv has consistently emphasized that any negotiations with the Russians are possible only when our country receives strong security guarantees from its Western allies.

Zelensky emphasized this in Warsaw during an interview with journalists from Polish media outlets (Onet, Rzeczpospolita, TVN24, Krytyka Polityczna). He noted that Ukraine values ​​the trust of its partners.

More details
obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-n… 2/
President Volodymyr @Zelenskyy assured that #Ukraine️ is not conducting any backroom negotiations with the aggressor state Russia behind the backs of its partners.

- Kyiv constantly emphasizes that any negotiations with the Russians are possible only when our country receives strong security guarantees from its Western allies.
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/pere…

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Kenneth Gregg voulanteer in #Ukraine

13.01.2025 update.

Today I will go into more detail about the front lines and the state of the Ukrainian army. I will start with what one of the most reliable analysts is officially saying.

- I am talking about Hans Petter Midttun, Midttun has followed the war closely from the very beginning and has previously been Norway's defense representative in many committees.

He has access to sources that far exceed my own. 

According to Hans Petter Midttun, a complete conquest of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions would require enormous losses of personnel.

Midttun justifies his opinion with the heavy losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine in recent years.

He cites an estimate that more than 790,000 soldiers fighting in the Russian army have been killed or wounded in the past three years. Approximately 54 percent of the figure comes from last year, writes Midttun. 2/
- Last year, Russia suffered its highest military losses since the start of the full-scale war. Even more significant is that last year's losses are part of a broader trend that is negative for Russia.

"The question is not whether Ukraine will hold out"

Midttun believes that Russia would need years to take over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia and cannot succeed without "catastrophic human losses".

- He estimates that a complete conquest of the territories would mean that 2.1-3 million Russian soldiers would be killed or wounded.

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- And, here it begins putin.....
Society themselves makes Ryznia wake up:

- They're finishing us off!" Wives of Donetsk "mobiks" killed in Kursk region of Russia decide to stage a "greedy riot"

The heavy losses of the Russian occupation forces in the war in Ukraine and, accordingly, the lack of personnel forced the command of the occupiers to give the go-ahead for the transfer of mobilized residents of the “DPR” to a new hot spot.

And it began: when the wives of mobilized soldiers started receiving "funerals", it turned out that no one wanted to give them any compensation.

"Now, in closed Donetsk groups, they are vigorously discussing the situation and the fact that women are preparing to go out to protest. It's hard to say what will come of this, but I think nothing good. But I don't feel sorry. The wives of traitors are not against the war, they just want to get more money,"
– says our interlocutor in occupied Donetsk.

More details:
war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/nas-dobiva… 2/
- The military operation launched by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation has shown the inability of the Putin regime to organize the defense of even its own territory.

The heavy losses of the Russian occupation forces in the war in Ukraine and, accordingly, the lack of personnel forced the command of the occupiers to give the go-ahead for the transfer of mobilized residents of the "DPR" to a new hot spot.

From "collections" to slavery:

The conscripts who had no combat experience and the "elite" units of the "Akhmat" type, who were thrown into the defense of the Russian border, were unable to counteract the Armed Forces of Ukraine in August 2024, when the Kursk operation began.

However, the Kremlin realized the seriousness of the situation later.

And even before the paratroopers and marines were sent to the region, they began to transfer units with mobilized residents of the occupied part of the Donetsk region there.

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Covered his own: brothers told about the "Cobra" warrior who died in a battle with a Yakut in the Donetsk region

Dmytro Maslovsky, a soldier of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Airborne Assault Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, called "Cobra", rushed into hand-to-hand combat with the occupier to cover the Ukrainian defenders during the clearing of the village of Trudove in the Donetsk region.

He died💔, and his comrade "Khaza", whom Dmytro called for help, simply did not hear, because he was too far away.

This was told by other comrades of the fallen Hero. Details;
war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/prikrivav-… 2/
This was told by other comrades of the fallen Hero. The 71st Separate Chasseurs Brigade had the task of storming the vicinity of Trudove in order to reinforce the flanks of the Kurakhovo direction.

Kobra and Khaza had a separate task - to cover the rear and control the approach of equipment at observation posts, one of the fighters said. While the assault group was clearing the landing, Russian infantry was approaching from the side of the point where Kobra and Khaza were.
youtu.be/s0ziWi8acfY

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No negotiations will lead to lasting peace until Putin drops his demands on Ukraine – ISW
(@TheStudyofWar)

The Kremlin said that Russia is supposedly ready for talks with Trump "without preconditions", while recalling its ultimatums regarding Ukraine. However, analysts are confident that until Putin abandons his demands, no negotiations will lead to a lasting peace.

obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-n… 2/
The Kremlin has responded to US President-elect Donald Trump's statement about preparing for a meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. It said that Russia is allegedly ready for negotiations "without preconditions", while recalling its ultimatums regarding Ukraine
obozrevatel.com/ukr/entity/kre…

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As Russian losses in Ukraine mount, Putin faces ‘devastating’ demographic timebomb

Russian losses in Ukraine are helping fuel a demographic timebomb that could see the country’s population reduced by half by the end of the century, experts have told the Kyiv Independent.

kyivindependent.com/russian-losses… 2/
The impact on Russian society is devastating,” said Harley Balzer, emeritus professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University.

“From Russia's perspective, (winning the war in Ukraine) is the smaller problem. The bigger issue is, is it going to be a viable country afterward regardless?”gufaculty360.georgetown.edu/s/contact/0033…

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Hackers successfully hacked Rosregistr: downloaded a huge amount of personal data of #Russians

Late in the evening of January 6, it became known that hackers had hacked and downloaded the Rosregistry databases, which contain information on every citizen of the Russian Federation. The #SilentCrow hacker group is behind this.
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/hake… 2/
They reported this on their Telegram channel ,
t.me/crowsilent/9
- and information about the hack spread online as early as January 7. The hackers noted that Rosregister (Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography) is a critically important resource in terms of real estate registration, cadastre management, and cartographic activities.

They leaked a small portion, approximately 90 million rows, from the unified state register of real estate objects. The total amount of information uploaded is about 2 billion rows.

The database, which is now online, contains Russians' full names, email addresses, phone numbers, addresses, passport details, and other personal information.

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(Long thread)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2025
Jan 6, 2025 - ISW Press

Download the PDF

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2025
----------

Click here
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…
to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/83a2f2…
to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here
understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3…
to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe9…
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
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Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6.

Geolocated footage published on January 5 and 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Berdin, central Russkoye Porechnoye, and central Novosotnitsky (all northeast of Sudzha).[1]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers claimed on January 6 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian roughly reduced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Berdin and that Russian forces, including elements of Rosgvardia's "Talib" Group, repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novosotnitsky.[2]

Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]), 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, and Akhmat Spetsnaz units cleared areas near Berdin and Novosotnitsky.[3]

One Russian milblogger characterized recent Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast as enhanced reconnaissance in force operations that could be a diversionary effort for unspecified future operations.[4] Increased Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast may be the beginning stages of a concerted Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater, though ISW is unprepared to offer any specific forecast.

Russian forces attempted to leverage Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to attack elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6. Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that Russian forces advanced west of Malaya Loknya (northwest of Sudzha).[5]

Russian milbloggers claimed on January 6 that Russian forces, including elements of the 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), seized Leonidovo (northwest of Sudzha) and that Russian forces advanced in northeastern Russkoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha).[6]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Makhnovka and Dmitryukov (both southeast of Sudzha).[7]

ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]), attacked toward Malaya Loknya and near Novoivanovka, Viktorovka, and Nikolskiy (all northwest of Sudzha).[8]

The Russian MoD claimed that "Caspian naval infantry" drone units, likely referring to drone units of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), are operating in Kursk Oblast, indicating that the Russian military command likely redeployed elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast.[9]

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Russia panicked over the EW capabilities of the Defense Forces: ISW indicated what this means

Russian sources have expressed concern about the ability of the Russian military to respond to Ukraine's ongoing joint military efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, particularly the ability of #Ukrainian forces to deliver long-range strikes alongside ground operations.

Panic was spread by propagandists on this issue on January 5, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Russian troops in several directions in the #Kursk region of the Russian Federation. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/u-rosii-za… 2/
Panic was spread by propagandists on this issue on January 5, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Russian troops in several directions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

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It's "hot" in Kurshchyna, fighting continues: the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on the situation on the front line

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/na-kurschi… 2/
Since the beginning of the day, January 5, the offensive actions of the Ukrainian military have intensified in Kursk (Russian Federation) . So far, 44 combat clashes have taken place there.
obozrevatel.com/ukr/location/r…

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🫡🫡 GUR intelligence officers eliminated the chief of staff of the "Storm-Ossetia" occupier battalion, Sergey "Kama" Melnikov

The soldiers of the FPV calculation of the Kraken unit received information about the route and schedule of the occupant's movement - and set up an ambush, hitting his car.

All the details: 2/
The chief of staff of the "Storm Ossetia" battalion, Serhiy Melnikov, was eliminated in Zaporizhia
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/pote…
by fighters of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The soldiers of the FPV calculation of the "Kraken" unit received information about the route and schedule of the occupier's movement - and set up an ambush, hitting his car

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Kenneth Gregg voulanteer in #Ukraine

03.01.2025 update.
12 32

We have a trend during the month of December that is positive for us. I will go into 2 alternative explanations for the trend.

The trend is that during the month of December, the intensity and number of Russian attacks have decreased drastically. With this, new occupied land has also decreased.

Alternative 1 is that the Russians have encountered too tough a defense and are now regrouping to concentrate on a few fronts instead of many. 2/
At the same time, they are trying to find where we are weak.

Alternative 2, which I myself understand, is that the Russians' technical resources are starting to run out and that our troops are seeing that the Russians are weakening and are therefore starting to counterattack.

One reason why the Russians' front resources are starting to run out is our attacks far behind the front lines that are targeting weapons and oil depots as well as military hubs.

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Without Russian gas: there is no gas and heating in Transnistria

Residents of Transnistria were left without heating, gas, and hot water due to the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Tiraspol stopped supplying electricity to the right bank of the Dniester.

dw.com/uk/bez-rosijsk… 2/
Residents of unrecognized Transnistria
dw.com/uk/pridnistrov…
have been without gas, heating, and hot water since Wednesday, January 1, due to the cessation of Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine .
dw.com/uk/%D1%82%D1%8…

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Wedges of "black swans" are flying around Putin, what threatens him in 2025? Interview with Olga Kurnosova

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/navkolo-pu… 2/
Summing up 2024, we can state that in some ways it was successful for the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/vla…

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Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Guard "transferred" to the Central Intelligence Agency the results of tests of weapons of the Kalashnikov Concern

Ukrainian hackers have hacked the email of Russian Guard Lieutenant Colonel Valeriy Byga, who is a figure in the Myrotvorets base for participating in Russian aggression against Ukraine. Among the documents obtained are evidence of the participation of the unit in which he serves in preparing Belarusian security forces to "disperse protests."
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/hake… 2/
Also, thanks to his mail, it was possible to obtain documentation on the results of testing new pistols from the Kalashnikov concern: the Russians admit that you can shoot them accurately only in propaganda videos. The content of the Russian lieutenant colonel's mail was reported by the Center for National Resistance.
sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/pidpolkovnyk-r…

"The Center for National Resistance has documentation from Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Guard Valery Bygu (Valery Bygu), which, in addition to personal data, contains the results of testing the latest pistols from the Kalashnikov Concern. Spoiler - the Russians themselves are not thrilled with them," the CNS noted.

They said that Bigu serves as an inspector in the management of special forces units of the Russian Guard. This structure, as is known, was created to suppress any attempts at "riots" on the territory of the Russian Federation, the Center noted. And not only there, because, according to the Center, the aforementioned unit conducts training on dispersing protests together with Belarusian "colleagues."

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Putin wants to meet Trump urgently, his situation is difficult. Interview with anti-Russian activist German Obukhov

The head of the aggressor country, Russia, Vladimir Putin, is initiating a meeting with the elected US President Donald Trump. Trump himself announced this. The situation of the Russian economy, which has been put on a war footing, is extremely difficult, and the successes of the occupation army on the Ukrainian front are very illusory. The Kremlin dictator needs to resolve the issue of this war of aggression as soon as possible.

If Trump meets with Putin, this step could cost him too much inside the US, so the probability of this is small. But what trump cards does Putin have in case the dialogue does take place? None. The compromising material on Trump, which is at the Lubyanka, if made public, will boomerang on the Kremlin. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by anti-Russian activist, head of the Stop Russian Terror Foundation (USA), German Obukhov.
war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/putin-hoch… 2/
The head of the aggressor country Russia, Vladimir Putin,
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/vla…
is initiating a meeting with the elected US President Donald Trump .
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/don…

Trump himself announced this. The situation of the Russian economy, which has been put on a war footing, is extremely difficult, and the successes of the occupation army on the Ukrainian front are very illusory. The Kremlin dictator needs to resolve the issue of this war of aggression as soon as possible .

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Putin has a "black swan" and a dangerous option from the times of World War II. Interview with Seleznev

The Russian occupation army, in an attempt to achieve the greatest possible results, is exhausting its resources, but it is impossible to say that these losses are "critical". Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin may consider the inauguration date of US President-elect Donald Trump - January 20 - as the deadline by which he needs to achieve convincing successes on the front. However, we cannot expect that after January 20, enemy activity will decline.

The occupier has a factor that can become a "black swan" for Ukraine - North Korean troops, which are underestimated in Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by military expert Vladislav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/putin-mae-… 2/
The Russian occupation army, in an attempt to achieve the greatest possible results, is exhausting its resources, but it is impossible to say that these losses are "critical". The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin,
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/vla…
may consider the inauguration date of US President-elect Donald Trump
obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/don…
- January 20 - as the deadline by which he needs to achieve convincing successes on the front. However, one cannot expect that after January 20, enemy activity will decline.

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Russia used North Korean soldiers as its convicts: how Pyongyang has already helped the occupiers and how it is ready to help in the future

Open sources have begun to regularly appear videos showing groups of Asian-looking soldiers taking part in battles in the Kursk region. Obviously, these are North Korean soldiers, which again makes the issue of cooperation between the DPRK and Russia relevant for consideration. Let's figure out how Pyongyang has already helped the aggressor country, how it is helping now, and how it can help in the future.

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/rosiya-zad…

More details about this can be found in the material of the joint project OBOZ.UA and the group "Information Resistance" .
sprotyv.info 2/
Soldiers from North Korea

Information that Putin had requested troops from Kim Jong-un appeared in June 2024. But then it was about an alleged request from several engineering brigades, which seemed quite appropriate given the catastrophic losses of special equipment by the Russian occupation forces.

In the first half of October, data emerged that the dispatch of personnel to Russia had been carried out, but these were not engineering brigades, but full-fledged combat units. The only question that remained relevant was where and when the North Korean military would appear and how the Russians would use them

In November, it became known that the DPRK military began to replenish the 810th separate marine brigade, whose area of ​​operation was the Kursk region, where it suffered heavy losses. In order not to withdraw the 810th brigade from the combat zone for recovery, it began to be reinforced on the spot with North Korean "rambos". Moreover, the process (from the moment information appeared about the compensation of losses by the North Koreans and until their direct involvement) lasted more than a month

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ISW assessed what is behind the Kremlin's latest statements regarding bases in Syria and what their loss threatens for Russia

news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/abroad/v-i… 2/
The Kremlin continues to cautiously signal that it can secure Russian military bases in Syria in the short term. However, it is uncertain about the long-term future of these bases amid the unstable political situation in the country.
obozrevatel.com/ukr/topic/konf…

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Joakim von Braun Swedish well known Security/East Europe expert 

Joakim von Braun — Sunday, December 8, 2024

STRONG INCREASE IN SUPPORT TO UKRAINE BY WESTERN COUNTRIES

Under the influence of two unpleasant factors, Western countries have now implemented a substantial increase in their military aid to Ukraine in the last quarter of the year. One factor is Russia's geographical advancement on the front, the other is Trump's fear of withdrawing promised US support. Today, Ukraine and its struggling people have many friends around the world, and such difficulties do not diminish the willingness of other donor countries to continue their support.

While there are several negative factors that put pressure on donors, there are also a number of particularly positive factors that increase donor willingness.

The fact that Ukraine has shown its forefoot and invaded Russia, and is now stuck in the Kursk Oblast, has shown that Ukraine’s military might shows both initiative and offensive force. 2/
► The fact that Ukraine has managed to quintuple the number of newly mobilized soldiers since spring also shows a regained strength and optimism. According to Christian Freuding, head of the "Bundeswehr Situation Center in Ukraine", the situation of Ukrainian artillery has also improved.

Russia is now losing more than 1,500 soldiers a day shows Putin is losing more and more grip. Many indications show that Ukrainian retreats are inciting Russia to attack, when in fact it should consolidate the front and thus reduce its heavy losses.

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It gives its result: the GUR said that Budanov regularly participates in combat operations

war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/dae-svij-r… 2/
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, is not a "cabinet general." On the contrary, according to military sources, he quite regularly takes part in combat operations, <