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Sep 1 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Vital reporting from Donbas by @sommervilletv, embedded with Ukraine. "A counter-offensive is already under way in the south and the Ukrainians are now preparing to expand that in the east to take back land lost in Donbas and around Kharkiv in the north." bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
'Artyom, 35, says we are north of the city of Siversk, some 8km (five miles) from the Russian front line. "How close do you get to them?" I ask. "Thirty metres," he replies, "would you like to see?"' bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
"[Russians] are not coming in such big numbers. They no longer advance in battalion groups - they advance in a platoon, a detachment." One unit commander had explained...they have one man for every three of the enemy. In Sivierodontesk it was one to seven bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 2
Michael Kofman on WOTR podcast: "my best guess is that the Ukrainian military may not be planning to necessarily fight for the city of Kherson, but instead placed the Russian forces in an untenable position and forcing them to retreat across the river"
warontherocks.com/2022/09/into-t…
Kofman: "this is probably the smartest approach that Ukraine could have taken, rather than a much larger, bolder offensive. That would have been a lot riskier...the most important thing is that they've taken an operational approach that makes the most sense at this juncture."
Kofman: "Ukraine definitely has advantage because they do appear to be using armour and infantry fighting vehicles ... this may not be what we will classically call combined arms, but definitely seems to have some of those elements [eg] some tactical aviation in terms of support"
Read 12 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 2
Good & clear. "If the Ukrainians can expend a limited amount of their combat power to pen the Russians into the city, they can reverse the challenges they faced in Severodonetsk and create a killing area for a large portion of Russia’s best assault troops" rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Also important: "a deliberate [Ukrainian] storming of Kherson city would likely be a mistake. Furthermore, seizing Kherson – while politically significant – would not enable rapid exploitation operations to occupy territory on the east bank" rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"Success, therefore, looks like a methodical driving in of Russian positions followed by the affliction of heavy attrition on the Russians. Moreover, the Kherson offensive should be seen as limited in its objectives." rusi.org/explore-our-re… So, in short: "advance to attrit"?
Read 8 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 1
A good piece from Kherson. “They’re throwing everything against us,” said a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier who said Russians were fighting with artillery, tanks, helicopters and mortars. “They have a lot of equipment but few men.” wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
'it is a hard slog against a well-equipped enemy, they said. Ivan, a 32-year-old [Ukrainian] private, said his unit’s task was simple: “Go in, f—them up, retake what’s ours.”' wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
'“We’re advancing in some areas and being battered in others,” said Pavlo, a 22-year-old soldier who was concussed in a battle on Tuesday and says he now hears a sound akin to a broken television in his head.' wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 26
“Ukraine’s gross domestic product will fall by as much as half this year. Its budget deficit is $5bn a month and, by the end of 2022, foreign donors will have spent at least $27bn paying the salaries of Ukrainian public sector workers and soldiers”
on.ft.com/3wxxw6Y
‘Without the port of Odesa, it made no difference that Kryviy Rih was safe, well-fortified and his steel plant was still standing with his workforce intact. “Without the port, there is no metal industry in Ukraine,” he says. “We have done everything that we could.”…’
“The cost to Ukraine’s economy of the physical destruction from Russia’s missiles and artillery is about $130bn, the Kyiv School of Economics estimated in June, with $26bn in damaged business infrastructure.” on.ft.com/3wxxw6Y
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 25
"Three journalists from Finland's largest daily [@hsfi] are expected to appear in a Helsinki court on Thursday, suspected of publishing classified defence intelligence in an unprecedented case for the Nordic country renowned for its press freedom." reuters.com/world/europe/f…
"Two journalists at Helsingin Sanomat, and their former editor, who all deny any wrongdoing, may face a prison sentence of between four months and four years if found guilty of revealing national defence secrets in a report published in 2017." reuters.com/world/europe/f…
'The 2017 investigative report by Helsingin Sanomat...revealed the rough location and tasks of an intelligence unit of the defence forces at a time when Parliament was debating whether to expand its powers to monitor private data in digital networks.' reuters.com/world/europe/f…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Aug 25
In this week's Economist, @azania_patel & I write on how Russia & Ukraine are both trying to re-grow their armies after a brutal six months of war. Russia is scraping together volunteer battalions. But Ukraine might have a medium-term advantage in manpower economist.com/europe/2022/08…
Western officials say that more than half of Russia's brigades and regiments in Ukraine are now at less than 60% of their original manpower and equipment, making them technically “combat ineffective” for their original missions. Some are in dire shape. economist.com/europe/2022/08…
90% of the Ukrainian recruits being trained in Britain have no previous military experience. They're being taught basics—marksmanship, movement, medical care—with emphasis on urban warfare. Next week, the EU will discuss another possible training mission. economist.com/europe/2022/08…
Read 5 tweets

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