Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Sep 2, 2022 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This video was released by the Armenian Ministry of Defense on the first day of the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war.

The Armenians released half a dozen of such gloating videos in the first three days of the war... and then none, because after three days
1/n
Azerbaijan had broken through Armenian minefields and defense lines and began to run circles around the hapless, incompetently led, shoddily equipped Armenians.

The reason I am showing you this video is to make everyone realize that the first days of an offensive are ALWAYS
2/n
the most difficult for an attacker.

In the first days defenders sit in their prepared positions behind by minefields, and still have all their tanks & artillery, still have ample ammunition, still have all their troops, still have functioning logistics, still have reserves.
3/n
An offensive needs to grind down these resources of the defender, before a breakthrough can be accomplished and exploited.

There are various ways to do this and all of them take time: the 1991 Gulf War ground campaign lasted just four days, because before its start coalition
4/n
aircraft had subjected Iraq for 38 days and nights to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history.

We can't judge the success of the Kherson offensive now. The Second Battle of El Alamein looked like a disaster for the British for its first twelve days,
5/n
the Battle of Waterloo shaped up to be a disastrous British defeat until 4 pm in the afternoon. In Normandy the allies failed to achieve any of their goals on the first day and it took them 55 days to finally exhaust the Germans and break out from Normandy.

Every day now

6/n
Ukrainian troops degrade russian manpower, equipment, and logistics. We will know the outcome of the battle in a few days... when one side will run out of troops, ammo, logistics, and reserves.

The russians, whose supply lines run over the Dnipro bridges, which are pounded
7/n
relentlessly by HIMARS strikes, are likely to be exhausted first... but until then Ukraine will lose many troops, tanks and vehicles... but these losses tell us nothing about the success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive.
At this point no one can make an assessment about
8/n
the success or failure of the offensive - not even the russian general staff, not even the Ukrainian general staff.

So be patient. For now fighting rages and we don't know, which side has the upper hand in manpower and materiel.

I believe it to be the Ukrainians, because
9/n
they have more and better trained troops, Western precision weapons, higher morale, ample ammo supplies, and now also air support (thanks to American HARM missiles and Turkish TB2).

Once Ukrainian troops reach the Dnipro, we will now for sure. Until then: Слава Україні!
10/end

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More from @noclador

Sep 8
russia isn't a superpower.
Never was a superpower.

Got whooped by Japan in 1905, couldn't beat Austria-Hungary & was trashed by Germany in 1914-17, barely beat the Chechens in the 1990s.

The only time moscow led a superpower was post WWII, after the russians enslaved the
1/4
people of Eastern Europe.
Once Poland, Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan threw of their colonial oppressor, russia reverted
2/4
back to a mid power. Economically weak, military crappy, politically shitty, culturally retarded.

putin's invasion of Ukraine was the first step in his plan to return russia to superpower status by colonizing russia's neighbours again.

But the invasion exposed that russia
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Aug 10
Ukraine Kursk Offensive: first results:

1) embarrasses putin & weakens his position ✅
2) forces russia to move troops from Donbas & Southern Ukraine to Kursk & Bryansk, which weakens russian's frontline in the South ✅
3) forces russia to send fighters & helicopters forward
1/4
to compensate for russia's lack of ground forces in Kursk, which gives Ukrainian anti-aircraft units ample opportunities to shoot down russian aircraft ✅
4) Ukrainian troops continuously maneuvering / advancing, while disrupting russian communications through the use of EW,
2/4
forces russian reinforcement convoys to loiter within GMLRS/ATACMS range, while russian officers try to figure out where Ukrainian forces are. Thus enabling Ukraine to strike the russians & cause mass casualty events ✅
5) provides Ukraine with territory & POWs to trade ✅
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jun 22
#TheAcolyte - SPOILERS!

The vicious online reaction to The Acolyte shows, that right-wing "media critics" are film-illiterate grifters, who latch onto even the most minuscule line to disparage each episode. All to confirm their delusion that media involving #LGBTQ & colored
1/5 Image
creators are an attack on the "white male", who they pretend to be the true arbiter of "culture".

@Lucasfilm even gave a hint in the first line of the first trailer that this is a #Rashomon style story. This didn't stop these "critics" to complete lose it after the first
2/5
Image
Image
flashback episode, which is a child's viewpoint.

Disney's third trailer showed us that what we saw in the child's flashback (left image) isn't, what actually happened (right image).

The Acolyte is by no means as good as #Andor (which is an anti-fascist masterpiece), but
3/5
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
1× frigate
1× submarine
1× oiler
1× tug to tow the above home when they break down

The russian ships were shadowed by:
🇺🇸Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Helena
🇺🇸Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Donald Cook & USS Truxtun
🇨🇦Halifax-class frigate HMCS Ville de Québec
1/2
🇺🇸Legend-class cutter USCGC Stone
🇺🇸1× P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft

And in case the russians would have done something funny: there are some additional 50+ P-8A Poseidon at Naval Air Station Jacksonville, which is also home to the 159th Fighter Squadron, which
2/5 Image
flies F-35A & at Homestead Air Reserve Base the 93rd & 367th Fighter Squadrons fly F-16C/D Block 30 Falcons, at Tyndall Air Force Base the 43rd & 301st Fighter Squadrons fly F-22A Raptors, while the 95th Fighter Squadron flies F-35A Lightning.

Those ships and fighters alone
3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
May 18
For 20 years war criminals from Karabakh had Armenia in their iron grip. In 2018 they were forced by the people to allow free elections and the democratic opposition won 70% of the vote, while the Karabakh criminals' party lost 90% of its votes and did not enter parliament.
1/4
Aftet the disastrous defeat in the 2nd Karabakh war, the Karabakh clans demanded a snap elections, got it, and were crushed again with the democratic and pro-peace forces of Pashinyan receiving 54% and the two let's-have-more-Karabakh-wars parties at 26%.
Now, as Pashinyan is
2/4
negotiating a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, the same Karabakh clans try to overthrow the government with street protests led by a bishop, who is for issuing ridiculous ultimatums.
The deranged Armenian diaspora is hyping up the bishop and protest, and theu are salivating at
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
How to do mobilization for war in the perfect way: the @USArmy in #WWII:

When Germany invaded Poland the US Army consisted of just 6× divisions (1st ID, 2nd ID, 3rd ID, 1st CAV, Hawaiian Division, Philippine Division).
1/12 Image
In October 1939 the Army added the 5th ID and 6th ID. Afterwards the US Army fielded 8× divisions.

After the Germans invaded France with 141× divisions, the US Army activated another 4× infantry (4th, 7th, 8th, 9th) and 2× armored (1st, 2nd) divisions.

Total: 14× divisions.
2/n Image
In fall of 1940 the National Guard was federalized. This added 10× infantry divisions (27th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 35th, 36th, 37th, 41st, 44th, 45th).

In spring 1941 a further 8× National Guard divisions were federalized (26th, 28th, 29th, 33rd, 34th, 38th, 40th, 43rd).
3/n
Read 12 tweets

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