Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Sep 2, 2022 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This video was released by the Armenian Ministry of Defense on the first day of the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war.

The Armenians released half a dozen of such gloating videos in the first three days of the war... and then none, because after three days
1/n
Azerbaijan had broken through Armenian minefields and defense lines and began to run circles around the hapless, incompetently led, shoddily equipped Armenians.

The reason I am showing you this video is to make everyone realize that the first days of an offensive are ALWAYS
2/n
the most difficult for an attacker.

In the first days defenders sit in their prepared positions behind by minefields, and still have all their tanks & artillery, still have ample ammunition, still have all their troops, still have functioning logistics, still have reserves.
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An offensive needs to grind down these resources of the defender, before a breakthrough can be accomplished and exploited.

There are various ways to do this and all of them take time: the 1991 Gulf War ground campaign lasted just four days, because before its start coalition
4/n
aircraft had subjected Iraq for 38 days and nights to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history.

We can't judge the success of the Kherson offensive now. The Second Battle of El Alamein looked like a disaster for the British for its first twelve days,
5/n
the Battle of Waterloo shaped up to be a disastrous British defeat until 4 pm in the afternoon. In Normandy the allies failed to achieve any of their goals on the first day and it took them 55 days to finally exhaust the Germans and break out from Normandy.

Every day now

6/n
Ukrainian troops degrade russian manpower, equipment, and logistics. We will know the outcome of the battle in a few days... when one side will run out of troops, ammo, logistics, and reserves.

The russians, whose supply lines run over the Dnipro bridges, which are pounded
7/n
relentlessly by HIMARS strikes, are likely to be exhausted first... but until then Ukraine will lose many troops, tanks and vehicles... but these losses tell us nothing about the success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive.
At this point no one can make an assessment about
8/n
the success or failure of the offensive - not even the russian general staff, not even the Ukrainian general staff.

So be patient. For now fighting rages and we don't know, which side has the upper hand in manpower and materiel.

I believe it to be the Ukrainians, because
9/n
they have more and better trained troops, Western precision weapons, higher morale, ample ammo supplies, and now also air support (thanks to American HARM missiles and Turkish TB2).

Once Ukrainian troops reach the Dnipro, we will now for sure. Until then: Слава Україні!
10/end

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More from @noclador

Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 3
Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.

Should Europe buy them? No.

Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe
1/9 Image
Image
is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
2/n
missiles per year,... or have a look at the second best rocket/missile launcher: Israel's PULS.

Should Europe buy it? No.

Because the missile production line in Israel is too small to support Europe's missile needs... again, Europe would have to either commit to buy 10,000
3/n Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 1
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.

8× containers are visible in this image

As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight.
1/6 Image
Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones

But (!) not all compartments likely
2/6 Image
held drones.

As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.

Also all the containers self-destructed once they
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
Italy's 61º Stormo received enough of the new T-345A basic jet trainers to begin pilot training this June.

As everyone knows, I am all for growing European militaries and adding capabilities... but why does EVERYTHING have to be with US engines?

Europe must stop buying US
1/22 Image
made kit, components and weapon systems.

The Italian T-345A (left) and the Czech L-39 Skyfox (right) are the only two basic jet trainers currently in production in Europe... and both use a Williams International FJ44-4M turbofan made in Ogden, Utah.

Yes, there are more
2/n Image
Image
American components than just the engines in both, but as aircraft are designed around their engines Europe needs to stop buying American and start building engines again.

Both planes the T-345A and L-39 Skyfox replace used European engines: the Italian MB-339 (pic)
3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 28
To my American followers: it is time to plan for exile.

Doesn't mean you will have to leave, but based on experiences of Jews fleeing Nazi Germany after 1933 here are a few things to make escape and exile easier:

1) get an up to date passport (the regime might no issue you
1/12
one in the future thus stranding you)
2) if possible get a passport from another nation. It doesn't matter which; just get a passport the regime can't cancel.
3) open bank accounts in a foreign nation (I can't stress this enough! The regime will freeze your American accounts,
2/n
which will prevent you i.e. from booking a flight; and you will arrive in another nation penniless if you do not shift your funds into a non-American bank in a non-American nation ASAP)
4) plan for the regime putting you on a no-fly list. How can you get to the border and to
3/n
Read 12 tweets
Mar 26
This is the wing, which trains the fighter pilots of 🇧🇪Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇩🇪 Germany, the 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway and 🇷🇴 Romania.

But all those people are wearing 🇺🇸 US Air Force uniforms... well, of course - the aforementioned countries' fighter pilots are trained by
1/8 Image
the US Air Force's 80th Flying Training Wing based at Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas, which is home to the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training.

Canada, Greece, Italy (pic), Portugal, Spain, Türkiye and the United Kingdom also have the right to train pilots at Sheppard, but
2/n Image
those nations also retain a national training pipeline, that Trump/Musk can't shut down.

Germany even moved basic training with Grob 120TP trainers to Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Arizona.

Yes, it makes sense to bundle the advanced and jet training of European air forces,
3/n Image
Read 8 tweets

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