Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Sep 2 10 tweets 2 min read
This video was released by the Armenian Ministry of Defense on the first day of the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia war.

The Armenians released half a dozen of such gloating videos in the first three days of the war... and then none, because after three days
1/n
Azerbaijan had broken through Armenian minefields and defense lines and began to run circles around the hapless, incompetently led, shoddily equipped Armenians.

The reason I am showing you this video is to make everyone realize that the first days of an offensive are ALWAYS
2/n
the most difficult for an attacker.

In the first days defenders sit in their prepared positions behind by minefields, and still have all their tanks & artillery, still have ample ammunition, still have all their troops, still have functioning logistics, still have reserves.
3/n
An offensive needs to grind down these resources of the defender, before a breakthrough can be accomplished and exploited.

There are various ways to do this and all of them take time: the 1991 Gulf War ground campaign lasted just four days, because before its start coalition
4/n
aircraft had subjected Iraq for 38 days and nights to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history.

We can't judge the success of the Kherson offensive now. The Second Battle of El Alamein looked like a disaster for the British for its first twelve days,
5/n
the Battle of Waterloo shaped up to be a disastrous British defeat until 4 pm in the afternoon. In Normandy the allies failed to achieve any of their goals on the first day and it took them 55 days to finally exhaust the Germans and break out from Normandy.

Every day now

6/n
Ukrainian troops degrade russian manpower, equipment, and logistics. We will know the outcome of the battle in a few days... when one side will run out of troops, ammo, logistics, and reserves.

The russians, whose supply lines run over the Dnipro bridges, which are pounded
7/n
relentlessly by HIMARS strikes, are likely to be exhausted first... but until then Ukraine will lose many troops, tanks and vehicles... but these losses tell us nothing about the success or failure of the Ukrainian offensive.
At this point no one can make an assessment about
8/n
the success or failure of the offensive - not even the russian general staff, not even the Ukrainian general staff.

So be patient. For now fighting rages and we don't know, which side has the upper hand in manpower and materiel.

I believe it to be the Ukrainians, because
9/n
they have more and better trained troops, Western precision weapons, higher morale, ample ammo supplies, and now also air support (thanks to American HARM missiles and Turkish TB2).

Once Ukrainian troops reach the Dnipro, we will now for sure. Until then: Слава Україні!
10/end

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More from @noclador

Oct 7
Ukrainian artillery gunners released a video with around two dozens M777 fire missions.

Ten of these were M982 Excalibur. One of them gave away how the Ukrainians program their Excaliburs.

The video of that one Excalibur mission is here below.
1/7
In this screenshot we can see three of the components the Ukrainians use:

1) a tablet to receive fire missions and GPS coordinates over mobile internet
2) an M1155 Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS) to enter GPS coordinates into Excalibur fuzes.
2/7 Image
US troops can plug their EPIAFS into their M777A2 or M109A6 Paladins, which receive GPS coordinates from the Army's Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS) through their SINCGARS radios.

As the US removed SINCGARS components from the M777 sent to Ukraine
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Oct 4
As things are moving fast on the Kherson front I drew up a few maps to explain the situation.

A short thread🧵:

In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one
1/n Image
just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons).
Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.
Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while
2/n Image
the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo).

Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies.
3/n Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 27
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
1/n
These Pentagon papers include all items the Pentagon ordered to replace equipment sent to Ukraine up to 12 August 2022.

I.e the Pentagon ordered:
• $1,381,308,000 of Javelins and $73,123,000 of Javelin Command Launch Units (CLU) to replace the Javs sent to Ukraine.
2/n
• $808,811,000 of Stingers. Interestingly $505,054,000 worth of the Stingers are for the Marine Corps, which hasn't ordered Stingers since 2005.
• $31,136,000 M777 howitzer spare parts have been ordered to replace the spares sent by the Marines to Ukraine
3/n
Read 21 tweets
Sep 25
A military needs to have the right mix between equipment (capability), numbers (capacity), and readiness (i.e. training) to achieve battlefield success.

Ukraine's military has the numbers and readiness - but it still lacks equipment. It is extremely defeatist and dangerous
1/4
that Western nations won't deliver all the requested kit to Ukraine: air defense, fighter jets, main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot, etc.

The longer the West dithers, the more putin is encouraged to prolong this war by throwing
2/4
the maximum numbers of bodies at Ukraine, even though his forces have neither the kit nor training to win against the Ukrainian troops.

Sending Ukraine every piece of kit they asked for, even if that means a reduction in capability and readiness of Western militaries is the
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
Why are russian propagandists and the Kremlin so afraid of ATACMS missiles... is it a fear of striking deep into russia? is it a fear of striking symbolic targets?

No, it's all about logistics. A thread 🧵:

1/n
russian military logistics are a disaster: no forklifts, no pallets, too few trucks, bad maintenance, corruption, incompetence, no movement control units - without access to a railroad russia can't supply its troops.

For more about this topic - see:


2/n
The only way for russia to somehow keep its logistics alive are railroads. For russia no access to a railroad equals failure of an operation:

attack towards Kyiv from the East - no railroad = no supplies, troops starving, tanks without fuel, no ammo - disaster, then retreat.
3/n
Read 25 tweets
Sep 18
Now that Ukraine has received 4x self-propelled howitzers, let's do a quick comparison of:

• M109A3GN (photo), M109A4BE, M109A5Ö
• Zuzana 2
• AHS Krab
• PzH 2000

1/n ImageImageImageImage
The three M109 variants:
• M109A3GN modernized & donated by Norway
• M109A4BE modernized by Belgium & donated by the UK
• M109A5Ö modernized by Austria & donated by Latvia (photo)

have a 39 caliber barrel and thus an 18 liter charge chamber, which can hold max.
2/n Image
five M232A1 charges. This results in a maximum range of 24 km with boat tail projectiles and 30 km with base bleed projectiles.

Being the oldest design the M109 require manual projectile loading, manual projectile ramming, manual charge loading, manual primer loading.

3/n
Read 14 tweets

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