Thread by @IAPonomarenko

My hypothesis on what’s Ukraine doing in Kherson region.
The Ukrainian military likely put a stake on gradually exhausting and embattling Russia’s grouping on the Dnipro right bank — while also keeping it isolated from supplies and from across the river…

So Ukrainian forces are likely probing Russian defenses all along the line, looking for weak spots, trying to advance and capitalize on their gains if possible.
It certainly does not have enough manpower and hardware for a reckless, costly, Russian-style frontal attack…

… that would guarantee nothing but a high Ukrainian death toll. So the command has to use their brains and do it in a more subtle way.
I think this operation is not about territorial gains per se, but about grinding the Russian group of 20-25 BTGs down in hard combat…

…until it just can’t go on due to losses, and a total lack of supplies and fresh reinforcements.
So I don’t think it makes sense to expect any impressive territorial gains, let alone Ukraine retaking Kherson, any time soon.
In the next weeks, we’ll be seeing heavy fighting…

… and constant Ukrainian strikes upon Russian GLOCs and river crossings. Ukrainian need to always deny Russia of its ability to go on feeding its forces on the Dnipro right bank. That’s a lot of work to do.
So yeah - it’s way too early to tell if this operation was a success.