Thread by @FPL_Mihir

A short thread discussing who should be your ideal third forward option and which will help you pick the best option for the final forward spot⚽️

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First things first here are the fixtures of all three players Toney Isak and Mitrovic in that order.

Assuming you are wildcarding around the International break in Gw8-9 Toney faces Leeds and Southampton who are ranked 9th and 12th respectively despite the small sample size in

the xGC table so far this season which shows they are not the whipping boys this year so far like they were last year.

Isak faces Crystal Palace West ham and Bournemouth who are ranked 14th 10th and 19th respectively in the xGC table which shows they are certain fixtures we can

target for attacking returns in the short run before we wildcard.

Mitrovic on the other hand is the one I least like from the fixtures POV as he faces Spurs and Chelsea two top 6 sides in his next two games but I would only consider buying him right now if you have already used

your Wildcard.

I think all of them are nailed on to start all of these games as Mitrovic and Toney are 90-minute men and Isak's main competition Wilson is currently injured.

Now to the individual statistical part of the argument
(Caveat of the small sample size of 5 games)

Brentford is ranked 6th so far in the League for xG but they have had good fixtures to start the season so the data might be a bit skewed and Toney has accumulated an xGi of 2.64 this year but so far has 4 goal involvements (2 G 2 A) this season which shows that whilst he is

super involved he could be overperforming his numbers.

His heatmap so far this year shows that he has been dropping back at times to get involved with the build-up...a bit like Harry Kane from Spurs!

We don't have much data on Isak yet as he has only played one game in the PL so far but he really impressed in that game vs Liverpool accumulating 0.51 xGi in that game and also having a second goal marginally disallowed for offside, Newcastle on the other hand as a team have

been the 11th best attack in the league which is fairly impressive considering they had a tricky start to the season facing both Man City and Liverpool so far

Mitrovic is the man in form and talk of the town after having scored 5 goals in the opening 5 games he has also had

an impressive xGi of 4.11 in those games despite facing tough top 6 oppositions, but I would avoid him since in the next few games he faces Spurs and Chelsea and I would get him in Gameweek 8 when he faces NFO and their good fixtures start as shown below :

VERDICT 🗣️
I am very likely going to go with Isak as my first choice this week as he faces 2 bottom 6 defenses in the next few games and Newcastle have also had impressive xG numbers despite the tough start.

My ranking would be :
🥇Isak
🥈Toney
🥉Mitrovic

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