Thread by @FootbalIEcon

How to trade Special competitions 💰

This thread breaks down a really easy and effective low-budget trading method, which can easily make you 0.1+eth a week from a 0.3+eth investment.

#sorare

Trading players used in limited special competitions is a really effective method as the 'meta' players change week to week.

In specialists, most people buy at least one card for their lineup, because the u40 average cap is so restrictive.

Because they only care about the player for that given GW, prices can rise rapidly as that player is significantly better in this single GW, than they usually would be.

Therefore, our trading opportunity comes from identifying these meta players for a single GW, before...

...the managers playing S05 buy them.

1. Identify the players
2. Buy the cards
3. Sell into the pre-GW rush

Simple.

Timing the Buy

L15 averages for special comps lock in after the penultimate GW.

This means that for a weekend GW, a player's average locks in for special comps after their previous weekend game.

So for GW302, the special comp average locks once a player has played in 300...

...even if they play again in 301.

This means we can see which players are eligible by the weekend close on Tuesday, or for most teams, we can see on Monday - these are the buying days.

Picking the Players

I use 7 main factors when selecting players.
One thing to remember is that when selling, buyers are buying based on their perception, not necessarily the facts 🔍

1. Utility

We want players who fit under the Average Score Cap, because the player pool for these slots is much smaller.

Specialist u40 is the smallest pool, with Underdog u45 and u50 the other key ones.

Also, look at players who may be picked for multiple comps...

...such as Challenger Specialist, Underdog u45 and Specialist.

For example, in GW302 Sven Mijnans is u40 eligible, playing in Chal Europe, making him a viable option for all 3 of those comps as the u40 option in specialist, or a u45 pick in underdog.

2. Fixture

Obviously, being a heavy favourite to win the game is an important factor. To check this, you can look at betting odds to see how favourable a fixture is.
Anything lower than 2.0 is good, lower than 1.4 will primarily be big teams, so...

...between 1.4-1.8 can identify solid teams with good fixtures, whose players generally rise most.

Moreover, a lot of buyers won't look this deeply, meaning that their perception of a fixture can influence their decision heavily. This brings me to my next factor.

3. Team/Player Reputation

As we mentioned, the strength of fixture is a key factor. However, people often rely on their perception of the matchup rather than the stats or facts.

Therefore, team reputation is a big factor, where people assume teams with big reputations are good, and lesser known teams are bad.

Using SD, you can see the badges of teams, so people see a badge they don't know well (maybe a newly promoted side) and assume they are bad.

Using Mijnans again as example, people see Sparta Rotterdam v Volendam and immediately assume Sparta are a heavy favourite as Volendam is a small, lesser-known newly promoted side, and they may not recognise the badge.

The same works for teams with a strong reputation, where people immediately assume they must be heavy favourites because they are a big side. This can be applied to players as well, but as we are primarily targetting lower-end cards, it’s not such a big factor.

4. Home Advantage

Home advantage is a strong factor in many leagues, although certain teams/players gain more/less advantage than others. However, playing at home is generally seen as a good thing, making these fixtures more desirable.

People will rarely check to see if a team/player has a strong home advantage, and instead will assume that home is better, making these cards more desirable.
For leagues such as MLS where Home advantage is notoriously strong, this may be a bigger factor.

5. Opponent Average Score

Even though I personally don’t rely much on this, because of the variation of scoring between different player roles, the SD opponent averages are commonly used by Sorare players to pick cards.

Therefore, when this shows a high score, people will immediately assume this is a good fixture for that player.
Colour indicators are commonly used in many financial or statistical environments to allow quick interpretations of numbers - these are incredibly powerful.

How often do we hear people talk about ‘green scores’?

A score could go from green to not green due to 0.1 points, yet the perception of each score is different. The point is, a nice green opponent average score is very desirable.

6. Average Score Variation

This one isn't vital, but targetting players with L5 or L40 averages superior to their L15 is only a good thing.
When an L15 average drops below a Specialist Cap (eg. 40), but their L5/L40 are significantly higher, this is a quick way for people to..

...infer that the player doesn't ‘belong’ below that score cap.

I don’t give this that much weight because I have repeatedly earned good returns with players of which this is NOT the case.

Again, Sven Mijnans this week. His L5 is 39 and L40 is 42, importantly they are both...

...yellow on SD, but he has returned ~100% on his limited this week. If the players has this average score situation, that is good, but is not essential.

7. Game Time

Finally, when people are scouting through a list of players they don’t know well, they will take a look at the % of games played on SD, and quickly ignore a player if its 60% or below on the L5.
Especially if this is paired with a L5 <35.

Target players who are regular starters, and who show this on SD.
Even if you know the player will start, if they haven't started in the last few games people won't take the risk.

Selling

Selling is fairly simple.

People will focus on building these lineups from Tuesday night-Friday morning, so this is when to sell.

Closer to the deadline you can get the highest price as there are increasingly fewer sellers, however, this comes with the risk of not...

...selling your card because there are also fewer buyers. Try to spread sales across a couple of days if you have multiple cards of one player.

Budget

This method is tough on rares or SRs, as they’re illiquid. I’ve tried it frequently but it doesn't work well, and limiteds are vastly superior given their liquidity.

Therefore, you don’t need a big budget at all.

People don't want to spend loads on a one-week player, so cheaper players with good fixtures can see a bigger % rise than the top players.

Also, you don't want to buy more than ~5 cards of one player as selling a lot of cards can be tricky.

GW302 Examples:

Gerardo Arteaga, L15 44

1. Eligible for Chal SP, SP, U45, U50
2. Playing Sint-Truiden, 1.65 favourite
3. Genk strong Sorare reputation
4. Home
5. Oppo avg 47 (not amazing but ok)
6. 61 L5 (Dark Green)
7. 100% L5 game time

Mon-Fri Rise: 50%

Sven Mijnans, L15 34

1. Eligible for u40 slot in SP and Chal SP, U45
2. Volendam, 1.65 favourite + looks easy
3. Volendam poor rep
4. Home
5. 57 oppo avg
6. L5 and L40 both 5+ over L15
7. 100% L5 games played

Mon-Fri Rise: 97%