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Sep 3 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov says that he has stayed too long as leader and wants to take an indefinite vacation

Not sure if this means he plans to resign but a massive shock given Kadyrov's extensive role in the Ukraine war
The full announcement on Kadyrov's Telegram feed. This is a drastic shift in tone, as just days ago, Kadyrov stated that his Chechen Kadyrovtsy units would be prepared to advance all the way to Europe
t.me/RKadyrov_95/27…

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
Gorbachev played a key role in developing Russia's current influence in the Middle East. Some thoughts /1
Gorbachev facilitated Russia's normalization with Israel

Gorbachev decried the lack of Soviet-Israeli relations in 1987 and allowed for the emigration of Soviet Jews. A drastic reversal from the Soviet Union's prior "Zionism is imperialism" stance /2
Gorbachev also helped thaw tensions with Iran, which created a path to current cooperation

Khomeini's 1988 letter to Gorbachev and the 1989 Gorbachev-Rafsanjani Summit healed rifts over Afghanistan, and Iran's fears of Soviet support for communism in Iran and expansionism /3
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
I spoke with some experts in Moscow about how Russia views Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson. Some thoughts /1
The prevailing view is that Ukraine's counter-offensive is unlikely to succeed in swiftly recapturing Kherson

Instead, it might resemble Ukraine's efforts to recapture land in Kharkiv region in early May and may not even be as successful as that /2
Ukraine's counter-offensive was aimed at diverting Russian forces from Donetsk but is even more tied to Russia's referendum push in Kherson

The view in Russia is that Ukraine will continue shelling targets in Kherson to prevent a referendum from being held /3
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 24
Russia's Black Sea strategy has fluctuated markedly in the six months since the Ukraine invasion

As Ukraine targets Kherson and Crimea, Russia's Black Sea influence is under threat. Some thoughts /1
In the initial stages of the war, Russia's Black Sea strategy was the most successful component of its military operations

Crimea became a logistical hub, Russia swiftly occupied Kherson and blockaded the coast for Ukrainian exports /2
Turkey's blockage of warships via the Bosporous was not viewed as seriously problematic in Russia, as it also impeded the path of NATO warships

Russia proceeded to weaponize food and energy exports, and use its Black Sea presence to smuggle Ukrainian grain /3
Read 5 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 23
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is approaching its six month anniversary

I have outlined the most significant implications of the war for Russian politics and foreign policy /1
The war illustrated the resilience of Putin's regime

Despite sanctions and military losses, Kremlin narratives about Ukrainian ultra-nationalism and the existential NATO threat have durably increased public support for Putin, his Cabinet and even the unpopular State Duma /2
The war shows that hardline nationalists pose a greater challenge to Putin than liberals

They pushed him to go all the way to Kyiv and urged him to reject diplomacy with Ukraine, while liberals went underground. They are now pushing for a general mobilization of society /3
Read 11 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Jun 15
Russia's influence in Africa has withstood its botched invasion of Ukraine

Will food insecurity, war crimes allegations and secondary sanctions derail Russia's ambitions in Africa? Based on my forthcoming book on Russia in Africa, I share some thoughts /1
The Ukraine war has done little to change Russia's geopolitical alignments in Africa

Russia's key partners, such as Egypt, South Africa and Algeria, have embraced neutrality and regional powers like Nigeria have condemned the war but not sided with Ukraine /2
Business-as-usual relations with Russia are the norm

No African country has sanctioned Russia, mega-projects like El Dabaa in Egypt are intact, Russia struck a new security pact with Cameroon and is exploring energy projects with Nigeria and South Africa /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 12
Timofey Bordachev, an influential Russian academic, shared his thoughts on Sweden and Finland's NATO accession

Bordachev's opinions provide useful insight into the Kremlin's perceptions of and narratives about these developments. Some more details /1
Bordachev's overall assessment is that Sweden and Finland's pursuit of NATO membership is "irrational" and "suicidal"

Bordachev argues that Russia viewed Sweden and Finland as rational players, but now links them to the "Tallinn to Sofia" belt of US clients /2
Bordachev argues that "Finnish prudence" has been overstated, however, as Finland's neutrality broke with the 1918-44 history of conflict

He argues that the memory of heavy losses to the Soviet Union were all that sustained Finnish prudence /3
Read 7 tweets

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