1/10. Tweeted recently on how economic mood in UK is almost suicidal. The journalist @KuperSimon, writing in the FT Weekend Magazine, puts it well (& not good news for Apple):
"Even the British term "omnishambles" cannot capture the current despair....." ft.com/content/3c2b41…
2/10. "....Energy bills will rise 80% next month, real wages are lower than in 2007, foreign investment has evaporated since 2016, the trade deficit is the worst on record and the Bank of England predicts a recession lasting more than a year...."
3/10. "....Given southern Italian levels of productivity outside London and the UK's self-exile from the world's largest free-trade zone, Britain's regions have no obvious long-term economic strategy beyond flogging national heritage to foreigners."
4/10. Later, and I think this critical to the Conservative Party's future fortunes:
"Now inject Truss (incoming PM) into the mix. Like most Tory leaders, she has pitched her appeal to well-off people who want tax cuts. That works electorally when such people abound,...."
5/10. "....but Britain is currently following Argentina's descent from a predominantly middle-class nation into a predominantly precarious one."
6/10. Perhaps stylist hyperbole? But I have my fears. The UK economy over the last 30 years has been built on blowing, with government encouragement, ever-more-absurd housing bubbles;....
7/10. .....making London the globe's hyper-financialization hedge fund capital of the world & the "go to" hideaway for every oligarch and despot's dodgy money; and debt-induced household over consumption.
8/10. While the composition of the UK's exposure to the post #GBB (Great Bubble Bust) may be unique, continental economies have hardly less exposure even if their factor mix is different.
9/10. Nonetheless, while the "everything bubble" is popping before your eyes, sell-side analysts see Apple's 60% of overseas revenue as being immune to such apocalyptic outcomes.
10/10. Brits are supposed to traipse off to Apple's UK flagship store on Regent Street, Germans to the Schildergasse, French to Champs-Élysées, Italians to Via del Corso & Spanish to Puerta del Sol--and all like sheep will buy the iPhone 14. WTF! Wake up! No they won't!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/10. While FinTwit's recent focus has been firmly on European reliance on Russian energy, little attention has been placed on Russian reliance on European manufactures. Russia is classic textbook case of a "Dutch Disease" economy. See explanation below:
2/10. Russia's large natural resource endowments, including oil and natural gas, have led to a hollowing out of the rest of its economy. As this Yale study shows, the economy is therefore being hit hard if we look beyond the currency & trade balance:
"A common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” & even “prosperity” of the Russian economy..."
1/8. I avoid overtly contentious political issues since they produce a lot of vitriol but very little enlightenment in the comments they bring forth. But sometimes one's got to take a stand. Suddenly Putin appeasers have come out of the woodwork. @Doomberg:
2/8.
"More convincingly, cutting a peace deal with Putin is probably the most prudent course available to Western Europe’s political leaders"
2/8. Yes, as I've tweeted numerous times before, surging energy prices will cause a lot of pain across Europe, but we've been here before in 1973/74 (I was there) with the first oil crisis, and life did go on (albeit with power cuts & 3-day weeks) without the sky falling down.
1/4. Just come off a @LanceRoberts discussion with Adam Taggart @menlobear, where Lance points out that S&P Top 10 now at 31% of market cap & have significantly outperformed other 490 due to index buying. But Top 10 are not immune to earnings news.
2/4. Like Lance, my short conviction has been troubled by indiscriminate index buying undermining price discovery (incoming news adjusting discounted cash flow assumptions &, thus, stock prices). Nonetheless, a ray of sanity has pierced the gloom in this regard.
3/4. If we look at the S&P Top 10, three stocks have caused analysts to pull back on their revenue & profit estimates: Amazon, Meta & Nvidia.
As of 2 Sep, S&P down 18% from Jan 3 ATH. Those 3 stocks ranked on degree of bad news?
1/22. Back in June, I did a snarky tweet on #Harvard Endowment's asset allocation on the eve of the GBB (Great Bubble Burst). At the time, I thought Harvard was an outlier: I was wrong! IMHO, Ivy portfolios will become clusterf*ck central in the GBB.
2/22. Let's prepare the groundwork. We head off first to the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) for their 2021 annual endowment study.
1/4. It's very easy to ignore the micro with so much macro going on. And also Q3 results seem a long way away. Yet perhaps downward revisions are coming early this year: Seagate $STX yesterday slashed next quarter central revenue forecast from $2.5 billion to $2.1 billion.
2/4. “Since our earnings call in mid-July, weaker economic trends in certain Asian regions have amplified customer inventory corrections and supply chain disruptions....."
3/4. "....We have also seen more cautious buying behavior among global Enterprise / OEM and certain U.S. cloud customers amid ongoing macro-economic uncertainties."
1/18. Michael Ashton @inflation_guy put me on to this book when he recommended it on @TheMarketHuddle with @kevinmuir & @PatrickCeresna. I'm still working my way through it, but I think it important to immediately share one of the author's (Didier Sornette's) insights.
2/18. Most people who follow me on Twitter know that my central thesis is that we our just starting to come out of a bubble; indeed, exiting what Jeremy Grantham calls a "superbubble".
"We should not expect all speculative bubbles to end in a crash: the crux of the theory is that there is always a finite probability that the bubble will deflate smoothly without a crash."