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One Bubble to Rule Them All Profile picture
One Bubble to Rule Them All
@shortl2021
CFA, veteran former hedge fund manager, analyst, economist. Back to trade the "Skynet" bubble.
15 subscribers
Apr 2 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/8. Since much of my career was spent in Japan, the incredible shrinking nation, I'm a "demographics is destiny" kind of guy. Fascinating series of charts from @Econimica showing a Japan-style inflection point now taking place around the globe.

2/8. CH is also connecting the dots between deteriorating demographics, rising debt and declining interest rates (until now?).

Mar 13 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/18. This is a thread on how we could see a 75% drop in the S&P. Absurd, ridiculous, hyperbole? Please humour me. We will start with China. 2/18. Following a series of 3 tweets highlighting Chinese industrial strength, I want to stress that I am not a cheerleader for China (unlike say Jason Smith @ShangguanJiewen). China's growing manufacturing & tech dominance just appears to be an objective fact for me.
Mar 9 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/8. Symbols of Chinese dominance of the Big Three: autonomous vehicles, drones and robotics. And China is on its way to having 10X the productive capacity in all three domains compared with the US. 2/8. And such commercial capacity has the ability to be turned into military capacity. This is basically what the US did in WW2 with Japan. It flicked a switch: then auto makers produced tanks and commercial ship yards produced aircraft carriers.
Feb 16 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5. Hmmm. Be careful what you wish for. Slash and burn spending cuts will tip the economy into recession. And under recessions deficits expand, not contract. Elon never studied Econ 101. 2/5. Ballooning structural deficits are due to a multitude of factors, most important of which are negative demographic (principally an ageing population & falling trend in workforce participation, plus an LT decline in the corporate tax take.
Jan 27 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5. If #Deepseek is the Sputnik Moment, the realisation that other countries apart from US can do tech too, it’s been a long time coming. X accounts like @GlennLuk, @wmhuo168 but above all @hsu_steve have been flagging this for ages. 2/5. For @hsu_steve, it’s China’s Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematical academic prowess that has changed everything. Forget the PLA, this is China’s new STEM army.
Dec 4, 2024 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
1/24. Rocket Lab $RKLB is a symbol to me of the craziness of this market. Now it's a good company with a very engaging Kiwi founder Peter Beck. But the valuation is so insane as to require psychedelic drugs to justify. Image 2/24. Looking at Twitter feed, I don't think any one of its rabid supporters has looked at 10Q.

Company's revenue run rate is about $400 million, but stock valued at $12 billion.

commhttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001819994/a0710a75-c964-47af-8aa7-0a2e584d5168.pdf
Nov 15, 2024 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
1/16. Jeremy Grantham. Surely the greatest historian of bubbles wrote this article ("Waiting for the Last Dance") in Jan 2021 amidst the pandemic's monetary & fiscal stimulus euphoria. Nasdaq was at 1400, Apple at $128 and the meme stocks "to the moon".

gmo.com/europe/researc… 2/16. Wow, what a bubble! Wouldn't see that again? But we have: 4 yrs on, Nasdaq at 2,000+, Apple at $228 & meme stocks? Well, aren't they all meme now? Rocket Lab at 20X sales (earnings? 'forgetaboutit'), Palintir at 45X, Apple at 10X. Back in the day, these were P/E ratios.
Sep 12, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
1/13. Some comments about Japan and the carry trade. First point to note: back in 2021 there was no inflation. so BOJ could monetise the Japanese government debt with no consequences. Image 2/13. I go through the dynamics here. In short, government spending > taxation, so government borrows to fill the gap. The BoJ monetises the debt.

Jul 30, 2024 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
1/16. The word here is "nominal". So, OK, you didn't get a housing crash in the 1978 to 1985 period, but you also got a huge jump in nominal incomes. Mortgages got inflated to nothingness (my dear-departed dad's mortgage in the UK included).

2/16. Like stocks, houses are currently wrongly priced. The discount rate has gone up (oh my f*cking God, it is actually a non-negative discount rate in real terms) and the implicit rent generated from the value of the house is low.
Jan 6, 2023 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
1/25. Apologies for the lack of tweets since the start of 2023. As with most people, I've been reflecting on what I want to achieve in 2023. This Twitter handle has been a labour of love and I never really expected to garner 18k followers or so in 18 months. But..... 2/25 ....it was really a "passion born in a time of Covid" where few people could get out much and were forced to sit in front of screens all day.
Dec 20, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/10. For weeks I've been reading books on both the French Mississippi & English South Sea bubbles of 1719/20. @ProfJohnTurner @wquinn05 compare & contrasts these bubbles in a chapter entitled "1720 & the Invention of the Bubble". 2/10. This period of financial history in France and England is so rich that I find it difficult to do justice in tweet threads. But the 2 authors give us the chart below to contrast & compare.
Dec 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4. Market continues to call the Fed's bluff. The Dec & Sep dot plots show this starkly. For Dec, the most dovish 2023 projections are the (only) 2 below the 5% target range (just below it at that).

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy… 2/4. Three months ago, not one hawk was above the 5% target line for 2023! Note that the most dovish 2023 projection in Sep (Brainhard?) has moved up by 100 bps between the 2 meeting from 3.75 to 4.75!

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Dec 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/7. Danielle @DiMartinoBooth was absolutely on fire in this interview with @JackFarley96 (yet again proving he is one of best interviewers out there). Too much to do justice to on a tweet thread, but jump in at 58 mins for discussion of private markets.

2/7. Anyone who has followed me over time will know that I am a huge skeptic as regards the private equity model. Are PE market guys smarter than public market guys or has the PE juggernaut just been an extension of free money & debt for a decade or two? You know my view.
Dec 12, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/7. Interesting report out from the IEA today setting out how Europe can cope with the Russian energy shock going into 2023. But, first, some perspective. In 2021, EU was supplied with 361 bcm of natural gas, of which 72 bcm was LNG using IMF figures.

imf.org/en/Publication… 2/7. For 2023, IEA see baseline demand of 395 bcm, and a shortfall of supply of 57 bcm. 30 bcm should be covered by existing initiatives, while the IEA suggests a further set of initiatives to close the final 27 bcm gap.

iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/96ce64c…
Dec 10, 2022 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
1/19. I flagged the BIS report on $60 trillion off-balance sheet USD liabilities a few days ago, & @FedGuy12 made the comment that any discussion of this issue doesn't really make sense unless you take into account the offsetting assets on these trades.

2/19. Now, @macroalf has done a nice little dive into the composition of these trades. First 9 minutes tackles how these trades arise, & from then onward he looks at the risk these trades pose.

Dec 9, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/9. As an old git, I was a teenager in the 1970s but was an econ nerd kid who read The Economist in my school classroom breaks. My experience then was that to control inflation you needed to get unemployment up & wage growth down.

atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-grow… 2/9. Michael Howell @crossbordercap, who I have huge respect for, suggests that the liquidity spigot is now being turned back on,....
Dec 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/4. The dot plot will be the main focus for the 14 Dec FOMC. @johnauthers highlights a piece today that emphases the wide dispersion in forecasts at the last meeting.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… 2/4. "For 2024 and 2025 there is almost as little consensus as there could possibly be. With the economic scene complicating further (energy prices are coming under control in a way that seemed unlikely three months ago;..."
Dec 7, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
1/12. Today I'm meeting up with some Imperial College grad students at St George's (marked in pink at bottom) and we are going to have a lot of fun doing a long walk from Southwark & through the City of London. Points of interest from this 1746 map.

knowyourlondon.wordpress.com/2021/03/17/bor… 2/12. Move up slightly from St George's, and to the right you can see an area called "The Kings Bench". You can get a larger image if you go to the link below and click on the map image.

knowyourlondon.wordpress.com/2021/03/17/bor…
Dec 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/9. Reading about the life and times of John Law, a central preoccupation of his thinking was the relationship between the monetary and real economies. Image 2/9. Read this passage from Janet Gleeson's "The Moneymaker":

"The problems of the country (France), he promised, all stemmed from a lack of available money. 'Trade and money,' he had written in Scotland, 'depend mutually on one another; when trade decays, money lessens;
Dec 6, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
1/16. Spent the morning listening to the latest @TheMarketHuddle with @kevinmuir & @PatrickCeresna with guest @stevehouf. Steve is in the structural inflation camp along with the likes of @VincentDeluard & @biancoresearch & like.

2/16. Steve's slide deck can be found at the link below. So the macro backdrop slide is here. But from then onward he goes on to unpack the quant factor implications for different inflation regimes, with the higher inflation regimes prominent.

markethuddle.com/wp-content/upl…
Dec 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Gloomy UK Confederation of British Industry update gathering lot of media attention today:

Tony Danker, CBI Director-General, said:

“Britain is in stagflation – with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment..."

cbi.org.uk/media-centre/a… ".....Firms see potential growth opportunities but a lack of “reasons to believe” in the face of headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023. Government can change this....."