1. Little commentary on PA #Poll instead of responding to everyone in individual replies.
When the Generic Ballot and Most Important Issues are published, it'll help illustrate the following:
Look at undecideds, especially by EDU. Fetterman/Shapiro are near their ceilings.
When the Generic Ballot and Most Important Issues are published, it'll help illustrate the following:
Look at undecideds, especially by EDU. Fetterman/Shapiro are near their ceilings.
2. Repeat: Look at undecideds, especially by EDU. @JohnFetterman & @JoshShapiroPA are near their ceilings. Very few ADV/Post-Grads & 4-Years undecided compared to Some / Associate and HS / Less, who break hard for @dougmastriano & @DrOz.
Continued...
Continued...
3. You'll also see the same shortly with issue voters and Trump vs. Biden voters. Voters who cite GOP-friendly issues (Econ/Jobs/Inflation/etc) this cycle are far more undecided than those who cite DEM-friendly issues (Abortion/Climate Change/Etc).
Further, Biden approval...
Further, Biden approval...
4. Further, Biden approval among undecided groups is not just bad, but awful. The intensity spread—strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve—is huge.
Historically, these voters are highly likely to break for Mastriano and Oz, but EDU is likely to exacerbate that later movement.
Historically, these voters are highly likely to break for Mastriano and Oz, but EDU is likely to exacerbate that later movement.
5. A big question for me was whether down ballot statewide GOP candidates could do as well with voters in Northeastern Pennsylvania as Donald Trump.
Both of them are pretty darn close, especially Mastriano, while Oz performs shockingly well in the Pittsburg burbs in Allegheny.
Both of them are pretty darn close, especially Mastriano, while Oz performs shockingly well in the Pittsburg burbs in Allegheny.
6. What does all this mean? Mastriano and Oz just have to turn those people out and they'll overtake Shapiro and Fetterman. Oz still has work to do on base consolidation, but the rally, student loan forgiveness, and the raid will likely help him on that front.
We shall see.
We shall see.
7. One more thing on base consolidation. Trump's base in PA is not just identified and registered Republican voters. See Trump & Mastriano among Indies vs. Oz.
There simply aren't many "Nones/NPAs" in PA. Registered DEMs (more con) will call themselves Indies when you ask them.
There simply aren't many "Nones/NPAs" in PA. Registered DEMs (more con) will call themselves Indies when you ask them.
End of Thread -->
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