Thread by @srdjancvijic

A 🧵 on the #Europride2022 @EuroPride @belgradepride and the claims of the Serbian president and government that they are unable to assure the safety of the manifestation thus threatening to ban it👇🏻

1️⃣Back in 2010 approximately 7000 well-organised hooligans attacked the Belgrade Pride. Massive police force protected the manifestation. Democratic Party and their allies in government were not exactly supportive of the Pride, but were willing to use force to assure its security

2️⃣The demonstrations against the Pride were much more than just that, there were instrumental in destabilising the coalition government led by the Democrats. The hooligans attacking the parade were coordinated by parts of the security service loyal to the pre-2000 regime.

3️⃣In 2012 Serbian Progressive Party and their allies came to power. All the successive Belgrade Prides were peaceful including the protests against the Pride: from 2013 to 2021 (2020 was digital)

How was this possible and who were the people attacking the Pride before 2012?

4️⃣ In 2009 Miša Vacić, at the time leader of the movement 1389 got a 1 year suspended prison sentence for spreading hate against the LGBT population ahead of the Pride.

5️⃣In 2011 the court sentenced a well known far right activist Mladen Obradović and his collaborators to prison sentences for organising and participating in the attacks on 2010 Pride. politika.rs/sr/articles/am…

6️⃣Obradović’s far right movement “Obraz” was already banned by the Constitutional Court back in 2009 for violating national and minority rights and promoting national and religious hatred. ustavni.sud.rs/page/view/0-10…о

7️⃣Then came 2012 elections that brought Vučić to power. In 2013 the appellate court annulled Obradović’s judgment and ordered a retrial. In 2016 the Higher court in Belgrade freed Obradović for a lack of evidence.

8️⃣After the 2012 electoral victory, the new regime proclaimed an amnesty for over 3000 criminals including numerous hooligans some of which over time turned into phalanges of the regime.

9️⃣Why is this important in the context of the Europride and government’s ability to assure its safety? Well, because same men that were against pride in 2009 or 2010 are today marching for Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, against Europride etc. these are the exact same groups.

🔟They are regime’s men and women. In 2019 @NedeljnikNIN wrote that bugged telephone conversations prove that one of Vučić’s close collaborators, an MP, Vladimir Đukanović was entertaining a close contact with some of these extremists.

1️⃣1️⃣ Đukanović even gave Obradović from banned Obraz a stage in his TV show:

1️⃣2️⃣Vacić (thread 3️⃣) was given a job in Serbian government’s “Office for Kosovo”. When sh…t hit the fan and when this became public in 2016, a couple of months later he was fired from his job.

1️⃣3️⃣Beyond this, a confirmation that all these right wing parties are regime’s satellites is that the regime gives them a stage in all of the pro-regime media. Before 2012 some could be seen only in footage from their trials, now they are all over the place

1️⃣4️⃣Why is this important for the security of Europride? Well, Vučić can switch them on and off by pressing on a button. So if he wanted to, he can control them on the occasion of Europride.

1️⃣5️⃣They are of course not the only ones marching. There are some genuine anti-regime right wing groups and parties there but they paraded against the Belgrade Pride from 2014-2021 and largely peacefully.

1️⃣6️⃣The regime can contain protests against Europride and if push comes to shove it can deploy police forces to provide a security shield for the march. In collaboration with the organisers this is 100% doable.

1️⃣7️⃣The Europride is not a “security threat” as the regime propaganda is saying, but is perceived as a political threat by SNS. Whereas Vučić won convincingly in 2022 presidential elections, his SNS lost ground, precisely to the aforementioned satellite parties they helped create

1️⃣8️⃣While the genuine opposition is still trying to dip into the silent majority, these right wing groups erode Vučić’s core right wing base. This will not threaten his power directly but does force his party men&womem to share the clientelistic pie with the satelites.

1️⃣9️⃣SNS rank and file obviously don’t like this so they see Serbia hosting Europride that may have helped Vucic’s international whitewashing, as a threat. Maybe this is why Vučić is these days announcing a formation of a new party-to shake them up?

2️⃣0️⃣Vučić can secure Europride if he wants to. By keeping most of the hooligans under surveillance at home and by deploying massive police force if need be. This will leave people marching against the pride but they will be largely peaceful.

2️⃣1️⃣ This is the case for the main march on the streets and most side events. Some isolated right wing lunatic can attack people attending one of the numerous Europride side events. If this happens and we all hope it will not this will be a responsibility of the regime…

2️⃣2️⃣Responsibility to assure the safety of citizens on the day of Europride, of our guests from all over Europe. Responsibility for having used its propaganda machine to radicalise the population over the last 10 years. Read my “Welcome to Weimar Serbia” europeanwesternbalkans.com/2019/06/10/wel…