Thread by @YossiGestetner

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Con Inc'ers think that the GOP's electoral problem is Trump and Trumpism. Many former Trump fans are "just tired" of him. @IngrahamAngle said so.

I am not going to give you now data to make a case otherwise. But I want to direct your attention to George W. Bush.

2/ Late 2006 was the end of his second year of his second term. His first term was delegitimized as "stolen" by a 5-4 SCOTUS ruling as well as by his brother @JebBush who was FL's governor. Afew months into his term, a GOPer left the party; giving Dems control of the Senate.

3/ Shortly thereafter the terror attacks happened. Bush's ratings popped and he drove it to the historic midterm election wins for an incumbent party (in 2002).

But then the fun began on multiple levels, in no particular order.

cc @AriFleischer @KarlRove @NicolleDWallace

4/ Democrats blamed Bush for ignoring warnings about the 9/11 attacks by pointing to the August 6, 2001 presidential daily briefing which said that OBL is determined to strike. The PDB didn't talk of a 4-plane suicide mission; it was general stuff. But Dems hammered it anyway.

5/ Then there was a big focus on the "Phenix Memo" where an FBI agent in AZ sent a memo to Washington in the summer of 2001 that people are studying how to fly planes but are not really interested in learning how to land those airplanes. Dems also relied on Richard Clarke.

6/ Clarke was Clinton's counter terrorism coordinator. He argued that Bush ignored his warnings of AQ attacks. He was given endless media coverage well Bush's reelection year.

Dems hammered Bush about 9/11 so successful that a comission was established in Nov 2002.

7/ Dems then made a big scandal of an interesting story: Joseph Wilson was a former US ambassador who in July 2003 (a few months into the Iraq War) published an op-ed in the NYT "What I Didn't Find in Africa." It was about his trip to Niger in 2002 on behalf of the CIA.

8/ He went there on behalf of the CIA to investigate an intel claim that Iraq sough to buy "Yellow Cake" Uranium from Niger. But "it did not take long to conclude that it was highly doubtful that any such transaction had ever taken place," he wrote in July 2003.

9/ The problem? In late 2002, the British Government claimed that Iraq did try to buy Uranium from Niger. In Jan 2003, Bush repeated the claim. Now, a few months into the war, Wilson claimed that intelligence was simply manipulated to push for the war which started mid-March.

10/ Days after the Wilson op-ed, the Bush WH via press sec @AriFleischer ran from the Uranium line, saying it should not have been in the Jan 2003 SOTU address.

What people wanted to know is: How did Dem anti-Bush hack Wilson get the assignment to Niger? In stepped Robert Novak.

11/ In his syndicated column, Novak wrote that Wilson's wife Valerie Plame is a CIA operative, according to "two senior administration officials."

HELL BROKE LOOSE.

The Bush Admin was accused of "outing" an agent (a hack in DC) in retaliation for Wilson's op-ed.

12/ Dems didn't relent on this all the while the war in Iraq was going haywire.

2.5 months after the "leak" of a "clandestine agent," the CIA Director (a Clinton holdover), asked the DOJ to investigate it.

DOJ announced an investigation Sep 30, 2003.

13/ Dems were not happy. They YELLED that this needs a Special Counsel (SC) and of course by the end of 2003, AG John Ashcroft announced that U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald will run the probe as a SC.

BUSH was questioned in the Oval Office about it in mid-2004 by the SC!

14/ In the end it turned out that Novak's main source was then-number two at the State Department Richard Armitage; an anti-Iraq war guy. Hardly in the Rove/Cheney/Scooter Libby's circle so flatly not motivated to "out" anyone. But this non-story dragged on until late 2007!

15/ Scooter Lobby was the Chief of Staff to @Liz_Cheney's father (then the US VP). He was charged with multiple process crimes by the Special Counsel who investigated what turned out to be a non-crime.

This brings me to late 2006.

Almost.

First, let's go back to 2004.

16/ After delegitimizing Bush's 2000 win; accusing him of causing the 9-11 attacks; for entering Iraq to help Bush/Cheney's energy friends, and the @ValeriePlame "scandal", Bush won reelection by one state.

Ohio.

If if went the other way, @JohnKerry would win.

17/ This narrow Bush win drove a renewed #ElectionDeniers effort against Bush by many Democrats and their media for YEARS to come. In 2006, a @VanityFair article wrote that "democracy and common sense cry out for a court-ordered inspection of its new voting machines."

🤓

18/ When it came to certifying the Bush elections on 1/6 (🚨), House and Senate Democrats delayed the certification by a few hours.

It was only the second time since 1877 that such a challenge was made. The other was in 1969 against Republican Nixon.

By the time the Bush presidency got to the end of 2006, his approval averaged 38.5% for the year and Republican majorities in both houses were wiped out in the midterms.

At that time a new scandal(🙊) broke:

The DOJ under AG Alberto Gonzales fired 7 then 2 more US attorneys.

20/ Three months after the dismissal of the US attorneys, the DOJ Chief of Staff resigned on March 12, 2007.

The claim was that the firings were political.

Days later, NH GOP Senator John Sununu called on the AG to resign.

The beauty of swing state GOPs: To undercut the GOP.

21/ By late August 2007, eight months into the scandal, the AG announced his resignation.

GOP Sen Collins called the resignation "a positive step fw for the DOJ."

GOP Sen Snowe said "the American people had lost confidence in his ability to continue serving as head of the DOJ."

22/ For all of 2007, Bush's approval averaged 33.8% and dropped to 29.9% the following year with some polls hitting as low as 24% and 22%.

This is just the tip of the iceberg of how DC destroys a GOPer that manages to win the presidency.

Bush is not Trump, yet look👆🏼👇🏼

23/ Another "scandal" that dragged down the Bush years was the fight to renew a provision of the Patriot Act in March 2004. Ill give the floor to CATO institute as to what happened. But note that by Nov of that year, AG John Ashcroft resigned; in part due to this scandal:

24/ "The infamous showdown took place in March 2004, while Ashcroft was recovering from illness in a hospital bed. Acting attorney general James Comey was refusing to reauthorize one component of the secret surveillance program, having concluded that it was illegal.

25/ "This prompted White House counsel Alberto Gonzales (who later became the AG) to rush to Ashcroft’s hospital room in hopes of getting the ailing AG to countermand Comey, who was tipped off about Gonzales’ plan and sped there as well.

26/ "In the confrontation that ensued, Ashcroft supported Comey—both formally (because Comey was legally the attorney general while Ashcroft was incapacitated) and on the legal substance.

27/ "When Bush reauthorized the program anyway, despite the Justice Department’s conclusion that it was unlawful, Comey threatened to resign—with Ashcroft, FBI director Robert Mueller, and other top officials reportedly ready to join him. Bush ultimately backed down."

28/ Year later as FBI Director and as Special Counsel, Comey and Mueller trampled over the rights of those in their Russia Crosshairs so why did they behave this way in 2004? In both cases, the two went along with anti-GOP forces DC -- Bush or Trump. Doesn't matter. Get it?

29/ Bush in general and more so Ashcroft took heavy incoming for years about the Patriot Act, so of course the logical step for Comey and Mueller was to take an anti-Bush/Ashcroft stance when an opportunity presented itself. Why take hits when you can get praise?