It sounds like this includes more unit-level training, not just individual skills, which is important. Training volunteers and reservists will be critical to Ukraine's ability to sustain this war, likely giving them an advantage. Good to see the UK lead the way on this effort.
Ukrainian soldiers will receive much better and longer training through this program than Russian volunteers in their newly formed units. This may not have a noticeable effect immediately, but it will be important over the medium to long-term.
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Thanks to @yapparova_lilya for this interview. One thing I want to emphasize is that defense analysis depends on the quality of the data. I don't have a great understanding of the force ratios in Kherson, which means it is difficult to make a high confidence prediction.
There are important tangible (e.g. quantity and quality of forces/equipment) and intangible factors (e.g. leadership and morale). I think the intangible factors favor Ukraine, and but many of the tangible factors are harder to assess (at least from my vantage point). 2/
Ukraine now has very good NATO artillery with PGMs and HIMARS/M270, and has a greater quantity of tubes and ammunition than in early summer. It has enough 155mm ammunition to conduct an offensive and its crews are proficient with these systems. 3/
Igor Girkin says that not only did Ukraine strike targets behind the front lines with HIMARS in Kherson, but they are also reportedly struck the front lines and infantry, which would be a new development and a potential indicator of an offensive. t.me/strelkovii/3142
The RSOTM Chanel also says HIMARS are being employed heavily in Kakhovka and that Russian air defenses are active. 2/ t.me/rsotmdivision/…
Video of a Russian/DNR assault on the town of Kamyanka near Avdiivka. The first video shows DNR T-72B3 and T-72B tanks advancing with infantry and firing at the town filmed by a DJI UAV. It looks like they come under mortar fire towards the end. t.me/milinfolive/89…
This is reportedly a Ukrainian camera on top of the water tower. 2/
Good thread by Tom. I'm not sure how the 3rd Army Corps will be employed, but it is interesting for a few reasons. The big question is what comes after it deploys? This has been a Ru MoD focus for generating new forces. Will they try to replicate this? Can they replicate it?
It appears 3rd Army Corps failed to meet its manpower targets. As opposed to earlier in the war, the Russian MoD decided to actually give these volunteer units training and good equipment, but one month isn't sufficient and these units don't have well-trained officers and NCOs.2/
So they'll struggle to conduct combined-arms offensive operations well, though they may be used in this role, but they can help take some of the burden of defending Russian lines, which is increasingly important given the likelihood of a Ukrainian offensive. 3/