Thread by @ThreshedThought

Time for a little update thread on Ukraine.

A little bit of tactical, a little bit of strategic.

And some QUALITY maps (as always).

Sorry for not threading for a while - I’ve been wrapped up in another important project.

Ok. Where are we?

The Ukrainians have started their push in the South.

You’ll recall that whilst the Russians were trying to move forward in Donbas (and shouting to everyone that that was what they were doing!), the Ukrainians were starting to make moves in the South driving the Russians back from Mykolaiv back towards Kherson.

Eventually the Russian woke up to the threat, and realised that Kherson was much more important strategically than Donbas (only major city on west bank of R.Dnipro, and gateway to Crimea). So they started rushing troops across the Dnipro and into Kherson.

About a month ago, maybe 6 weeks, the Ukrainians started shaping operations.

What this means is that they started using the long range artillery that the west had given it to hit Russian command and control, and particularly ammunition and fuel supply dumps.

Longer range artillery means you have to move your supplies further back from the front, and so for the Russians this made it harder to supply the troops west of the Ricer Dnipro (Ukraine targeted and destroyed a very high percentage of Russian supply dumps on W side of river).

Then the Ukrainians damaged the bridges - there are only two - across the river in Kherson. They damaged them just enough (such is the accuracy of this longer range artillery) that the Russians were no longer able to get armoured vehicles or supply vehicles over the bridges!

Cue the Russians beginning to run out of supplies, and being restricted to defensive ops that side of the river.

Then, in the last fortnight or so, the Ukrainians hit Crimea a few times. An airbase here, a naval yard there, a supply dump here, a radar post there.

And then they denied involvement - all good stuff to keep the Russians guessing and wondering where the next blow will fall.

And now the offensive has actually started.

The situation is that we have a lot of Russian troops. A lot. But they are not brilliantly supplied, and they don’t have hope of massive logistical support - the Ukrainians have taken care of that.

And the Ukrainians don’t have enough people, and can’t afford to lose many, but they are relatively well supplied (compared to the Russians).

And as ever, logistics (and the fundamentals of manpower and morale) will dictate the battle.

It’s looking something like this:

What that map shows is the Ukrainians putting pressure on the Russian lines along the front. This enables them to probe and see where the Russians have weak spots; and it also forces the Russians to use lots of ammunition to defend along a wide front.

Attacking along a wide front, whilst keeping the enemy guessing as to your major axis of advance, is called an ambiguity increasing deception.

But look at the map again:

It seems that the Ukrainians have actually found a weak spot and in the last 48 hours or so have driven a salient through.

Quite a good spot for a salient I would say. If the Ukrainians get to the river then they will cut off untold numbers of Russians.

Knowing the Ukrainian skill in info ops, I would expect lots of videos of Russians trying to swim across the river to escape etc.

But we should expect this to end quickly. Here’s why:

The Ukrainians know that they have the Russians trapped without the ability to do major reinforcements or logistical support.

And so why rush it and risk high casualties?

The Ukrainians can just gently probe, and take advantage of weak spot, all the while gradually closing the net.

(As an aside, they are carrying out raids and probing attack in Donbas as well, just so the Russians need to keep some attention over there as well).

And the Russians know it’s going badly - they just cancelled the referendum to annex Kherson due to ‘security concerns’.

So, what do we see at the strategic level of the war?

Russia is supposedly mobilising a 3rd Army Corps.

Ignore this - it’s under-recruited, it’s old men, and it’s rubbish equipment.

This is a distraction.

And Russia has also just shut off the gas to Europe.

This really is Russia’s last roll of the dice - Putin is convinced that European society and leaders are weak, and that they won’t manage without energy, and they will stop supplying Ukraine.

Xi has similar thoughts about the West in Beijing - they are all decedent and will fold.

(It’s actually a common autocrat thing to think that your population is stronger than the enemy one, whereas mostly people are just people).

But shutting off the gas is a gamble.

Because it might cause European leaders to double down on Ukraine’s victory, because they consider it unacceptable that they are being blackmailed by Putin.

And this is largely the view of European publics.

And this seems to be what we are seeing - so far there have been lots of gas cut off threats by Ru, but the weapons keep coming, and the West is united behind Ukraine (e.g. Ukrainian PM in Germany y’day meeting Chancellor, Macron speaking by phone to announce new aid pacakge etc)

Obviously we will see how this pans out over the winter, but my guess is that Western leaders are not going to let Putin blackmail them, simply for the reason that their publics won’t let them.

Ultimately, the West has got MUCH deeper pockets (economic strength) than Russia. This is what enabled them to win the Cold War, and it will enable them to win this war as well.

So - crystal ball time - what’s gonna happen here?

I think the Ukrainians are going to inflict a defeat on Russia in the Kherson region before the winter.

Don’t expect it to happen quickly, but the noose is being slowly tightened.

Then we are going to settle into winter when the war will slow down significantly (logistics are much harder in winter, and it’s harder to attack and redig fortifications in frozen ground, so armies like to stay put).

Both armies will try and use the winter to regroup and refit

Obviously there will be all the gas shenanigans over the winter, but as I said above, I don’t think Europe is gonna blink.

We’ll probably see an uptick in Ukr partisan activity.

And Erdogan will try and negotiate a peace because he has an election in April 23 and 80% inflation

And then we are looking at a Spring 2023 offensive.

Not clear what that is gonna look like yet, but my initial prediction still stands.

Which is … the Russian Armed Forces will be defeated in the field by the Ukrainians with Western support, and this will mean the end of Putin, and perhaps the end of the Russian empire.

(I hope someone is planning for the last bit because that’s gonna be a wild ride).

ENDS