So, after the 2019 election, many of us in the refugee sector were worried. The Gov had apparently "got Brexit done" and needed to show they could limit immigration.
But they knew they couldn't reduce it to the levels they had been implying. They needed a scapegoat...
Preferably a scapegoat that:
✔️ they could wield huge power over
✔️enabled them to dust off a giant racist dog whistle
✔️was particularly marginalised and, in many cases, extremely vulnerable
It didn't take long to theorise that they would seek to target people seeking asylum
And target them they did.
Priti Patel leaves with a legacy as shameful as it is terrifying.
From wanting to literally push back refugees to potentially to die in the Channel to starting a new trade in human lives with the Rwanda deportation plan.
The aim was always to shore up the Tory faithful. It's never (never, never ever) been to protect lives.
And it worked. For a while.
Check out the @ConHome Cabinet League Table in April after the Rwanda plan was announced. A massive uptick from her -17 points the month before.
Yet, as the plan (inevitably) failed to produce the results that it promised to those supporting it, her support sharply ebbed away.
See how things changed as the weeks rolled on.
There is A LOT to say (and has already been said by so many wonderful people) about why Priti Patel's cruel plans were never going to work and how, even if they did stop crossings, they will always be morally repugnant.
But the thing I want to highlight here is this...
That this is a perfect example of a populist Government choosing a scapegoat for its own political ends, working the country up into a frenzy about an issue that should be nowhere near the front pages, yet then being unable to put the genie back in the bottle.
And it's scary...
Because populists don't care about the consequences of their actions to get and keep power.
They fan the flames of hatred till one of their own houses burns down (Patel). But then move on to new one, and get the kindling ready to light another fire.
And that's what I'll be thinking about tomorrow when the new Home Secretary is announced.
Where will they go next to keep those fires burning?
“How I Learnt to Stop Worrying and Accept the Election Result” - 🚨 long & opinionated thread 🚨
For those who worry most about the impact of Brexit, Thursday was the worst outcome. For those who prioritise seeing a progressive & effective Gov in power, Thursday was necessary.
Let’s play-out the scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: Interim Gov formed in Sept to hold 2nd Ref, led by Corbyn. At least 6 months of stasis. Various crises blamed (fairly or otherwise) on Gov (eg NHS winter crisis). Ref is divisive and unpopular. Leave likely winner anyway. Result?
MASSIVE Tory landslide at next election that isn’t focused exclusively on Brexit thereby giving Tory party unquestioning mandate for Tory policies. Interim Gov blamed for Brexit fallout. Labour in political wilderness for years and years.