Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My almost daily update. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

There are unconfirmed attacks in Kharkiv tonight. I first mapped them, but I decided to delete them, which you’ll notice by the numbers.

Ukraine confirmed strikes near Kupyansk (1) and Semenivka (2). Many focused on Kupyansk, Ukraine claims 100 casualties and two destroyed vehicles, but remember that Semenivka important. It, along with Balaklyia (3), forms the backbone of the Russian defense in this area.

In the Siversk area, there is weak evidence that Ukraine could control Brusivka (4). I marked Ozerne (5) because I needed a 5th thing to label. Russia attacked Hryhorivka (6) two times today without success. They also attacked Bilohorivka (7) without success.

Yesterday, Zelensky mentioned that Ukrainian forces are climbing the hills in the direction of Lysychansk. There is one hill north of Verhnokamyanske, and the peak is just west of Zolotarivka.

There is a second hill south of Verkhnokamyanske, and the peak is just south of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Ukraine controlling either height would be a significant development.

In the Bakhmut area, the Ukrainian General Staff claims there is fighting near Pokrovske (10), and Ukrainian soldiers claim to control the heights around Bakhmut.

There are two notable high points around Bakhmut: One is near the gas station at the intersection of M03 and T1202; the other is just southwest of Pokrovske. The latter, of course, corresponds with the statement of the General Staff.

I have drawn the Ukrainian line about halfway between these two high points. There is still fighting in Soledar (8) and Bakhmutske (9). Keep in mind that while Ukraine appears to be having a lot of success in the Bakhmut area, the soldiers report high casualties.

South of Bakhmut, there is fighting in Vesela Dolyna (11), Zaitseve (12), and Kodema (13,14). The Ukrainian General Staff claims there is fighting in Semyhirja (13).

Perhaps Ukraine counterattacked, pushing Russia back a few hundred meters into the outskirts of that town, or maybe it is a pass-aggressive jab at Russia’s anemic offensive.

In the Donetsk area, Russia is trying to push north from Spartak (15), but they are attacking a Cold War-era airbase, complete with nuclear bomb shelters. It is one of the most heavily fortified areas in Ukraine.

Russia claims Ukraine withdrew from its positions to the west of the airfield after a heavy artillery bombardment, and Russia is trying to push through this area to attack Vodyane (16).

After a week of shelling, Russia assaulted the Ukrainian fortifications south of Pervomaiske today (17). The results of this attack are unknown to me, but I suspect it failed. Similarly, Russia failed to advance toward Nevelske (18) and north from Lozove (19).

I decided to post some images from Zaporizhzhia. The gray area substantially increased because Russia is shelling areas further south, but without corresponding confirmations of Ukrainian captures of the towns further north. Draw your own conclusions.

Finally, in the area north of Kherson, in the direction of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine captured Vysokopillya yesterday, confirmed by both Ukraine and Russia. Russia claims to be repeatedly counterattacking the town, each attack leading to a failure (20).

Similarly, Russia claims to contest both Olhyne and Arkhanhelske, and their attempt to take control over Olhyne (21) ended in failure. According to them, anyhow. We are only getting one side of the story here.

Furthermore, due to uncertainty, I have increased the gray area around various other settlements substantially.

That is all I have for today.

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This is a weird error, it uploaded a cached version of an image I replaced on my hard drive. This is what the image is supposed to be: