Thread by @MarkHertling

Reports indicate Zelenskyy will announce tonight (Ukraine time) that UA is executing operations in Kharkiv Oblast.

This confirms RU inability to maneuver forces between theater locations & within their force's defensive "stance" to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.

Why? 1/

As noted from the start of the RU illegal invasion, intel indicated RU had aligned a force estimated in size of 190,000 troops around UKR's ~1400 mile border, with a plan of attack along 9 main axes.

A large part of that force was in the north & it was decimated. 2/

In phase 2 (starting in April), RU shifted their northern forces to the eastern Donbas to try to achiever more limited objectives.

Remember, there was a shoddy attempt to "regenerate" the forces for that second offensive...they rushed it, and UA kept up the pressure. 3/

Yesterday, UAF proclaimed they had reached the level where 50,000 RU soldiers are "casualties." Not sure if those are killed, wounded, captured, deserted...but if close to the truth, that's 1/3 of the original RU force
Most were likely fighting forces, not support troops. 4/

After successful Donbas defense, Zelenskyy & Gen Zaluzhnyi saw an opportunity to shift forces to southern Ukraine.

Very smart move, since it was difficult for a depleted & immobile RU force to move to counter.

Plus, UKR has interior lines, easier for shifting. 5/

Add to that, UA has reinforced their forces with new soldiers, new equipment. Plus, they are resisting in areas where RU is trying to defending.

RU is nursing wounds, bearing loss of combat capabilities (people & equipment), have bad leaders. 6/

UA defense & small-scale counterattacks in Donbas along w/ recent deliberate attacks in Kherson (destroying RU logistics, bridges & ammo dumps) has generated a commander's favorite ally: momentum!

It has also placed RU on the horns of a dilemma: Where (& how) to defend? 7/

Russia's additional problems:
-a massively depleted force with few reinforcements
-hard to move/maneuver
-active UKR resistance + more capable & precision UKR conventional force (with good targeting)
-hampered supply lines + dysfunctional logistics
-crush of sanctions 8/

If I were Ukraine's field commander, here are my questions:
-Can we continue Donetz defense (all indications, yes).
-Are actions in Kherson Oblast achieving objectives (yes)
-If we attack toward Kharkiv will it draw RU forces away from Donbas & increase pressure (likely) 9/

I have no insight into Gen Zaluzhnyi's thinking, but he's a good commander.

He's likely considering these things...knowing a move on Kharkiv is bold & risky.

My guess: we'll see continued offensive in Kherson, continued active defense in Donetsk, smaller Kharkiv offensive 10/