Here's a wild fact - both ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, the two biggest "alternative" treatments of the pandemic, appear to have started out as fraud
The French government just acknowledged that the original HCQ paper that started the worldwide rush on the drug - cited >5,500 times! - was manipulated to show a benefit
One of the main reasons for ivermectin's popularity was the Surgisphere debacle in 2020, where a non-existent database was used to create a study showing massive benefits for the drug the-scientist.com/news-opinion/s…
Ivermectin has so far not proven particularly harmful, even in higher doses, but there is some evidence that HCQ increases the risk of death from COVID-19 for people who take it, which could potentially have killed quite a few people nature.com/articles/s4146…
But even if not directly harmful, the staggering economic cost of investigating these two medications, not to mention the vast sums people have spent buying up every pill for two years is a wild missed opportunity
When people ask what the costs of scientific fraud are, these are two pretty massive examples of the snowball effect that bad/falsified studies can have
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Gotta say, the whole ivermectin for COVID-19 thing is now just becoming a little bit boring
It showed some promise in bad trials, no benefit in good ones - literally the story of a million failed treatments for human disease
For treatments that don't work, what you always see is poorly-done uncontrolled observational research with massive claims, which then disappear in properly-conducted clinical trials
With ivermectin, that was upended because of the fraud. At one point, the biggest trials on the topic were showing a HUGE benefit
It still confuses me that, two years into the pandemic, people don't realize just how bad it would be if COVID-19 was roughly equivalent to influenza in terms of severity *forever*
I'm not talking about the initial pandemic here, but about what happens to our healthcare systems if we have an additional flu to cope with every year. It's not a small issue
Influenza is a big killer, and by all indications COVID-19 will remain pretty high as well. At an *individual* level, catching COVID-19 as a boosted person in 2022 is probably not dissimilar in risk to getting the flu
Another new observational trial of ivermectin has come out, so of course everyone wants my opinion of it
Long story short - it's just not very good. Completely worthless as evidence at this point in the pandemic 1/n
2/n This is the sort of paper that might be interesting if we'd never heard of ivermectin for COVID-19 before, but given we've got dozens of randomized trials into the topic even if it wasn't very poorly done it would be a bit useless
3/n In essence, the study is a boring retrospective analysis of routinely collected medical data from the Brazilian city of Itajai from July-Dec 2020. It's the second such study on the same database that this team has published
When push comes to shove, it's hard to think of a sillier insult than calling someone a shill
It's just...deeply ignorant and self-defeating
For one thing, it's very rare that people take money to tell lies. It's generally career suicide for whichever career you've chosen, and for most people an extra 20-30 years of gainful employment is quite a hefty incentive
The influence of pharmaceutical companies on medical professionals, in particular, is much more subtle than just paying people to lie. This has been documented for decades i.e. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
The publication is mostly based on a single news report that provides virtually no information at all on this disease
People are describing this as a novel disease, but actually the article says it's endemic to the region and may be one of many other infections. Also, while described as a virus, there's literally no information so it might just not be??
The study found that, if you spend an enormous amount of time and effort on training staff, plus or minus an extra ~$500 per person for a standing desk, you can increase the amount of time people stand at work by about an hour a day over 12 months
HOWEVER
This led to no meaningful benefits in:
- physical health (weight, pain, HbA1c etc)
- mental health
- workplace function