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Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 Profile picture
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Sep 7 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
.@CNBCTV18Live
CLSA on #BajajAuto
Downgrade to O-PF from BUY
TP Rs4343 from Rs4677
Exports remain under pressure
We lower our export volume assumptions
Lower our export volume forecasts, leading to 6-9% cuts in our 23-24CL earnings
Post-festive season demand and rural recovery are key factors to look out for
Although we expect the company to recover market share from the lows seen in 1Q22, we are still building in a 230bps YoY decline in motorcycle market share for FY23
While OEMs have been talking about recovery in the domestic two-wheeler market, we believe post festive season demand and a rural recovery remain key factors to look out for. The three-wheeler market is doing well: we estimate 25% YoY growth in FY23
Exports take a hit as African markets face macro-level challenges
We expect exports to remain lacklustre on the back of these challenges, and we build in a 16% YoY decline in motorcycle exports for FY23, though we expect volumes to bounce back in FY24 as the situation eases.
We also expect three-wheeler exports to decline due to issues in export markets
Lower our margin assumptions by 50bps/35bps in FY23-24

• • •

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More from @kothariabhishek

Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Sep 7
Brokerage Sales Note
Cement channel checks – hikes attempted to recover monsoon decline; margin outlook continues to improve

Channel checks suggest industry has attempted hike of Rs15-30/bag in East and South
We see this as attempt to recover the price decline seen in monsoon
Absorption of the same however holds the key.

Before the attempted Sep hikes, pan India average price was down Rs14/bag (4%) vs exit June and Rs22/bag (6%) vs Q1FY23 avg. As against Q1FY23, East has seen the biggest decline of Rs40/bag (12%) followed by North at Rs32/bag (8%).
Spot cement prices excl attempted Sep hikes (Rs/bag):
Pan India 358 (+1.8% YoY, -5.9% vs Q1FY23)
East 297 (flat YoY, -11.8% vs Q1FY23) - excl Rs20/bag attempted hike
South 383 (-4.4% YoY, -1% vs Q1FY23) – excl Rs20/bag attempted hike
North 366 (+3.7% YoY, -8.1% vs Q1FY23)
Read 4 tweets
Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Sep 6
.@CNBCTV18Live
Bond mkt actions
NON-CONVERTIBLE DEBENTURES:
HDFC Ltd accepts bids worth Rs9007 cr for 10-year bonds at 7.80% coupon
Arka Finance accepts bids worth Rs50 cr on 18-month bonds at 8.20% coupon
JM Financial Products accepts bids worth Rs50 cr via reissue of 8.65%
July 2032 bonds at 8.45% IRR.
HDFC Bank to raise at least Rs1000 cr via perpetual bonds
SIDBI to raise at least Rs1500 cr via 3-year and 6-month bonds
PFC to raise at:
a. Rs600 cr via 5-year STRPP bonds
b. Rs500 cr via 10-year bonds
Tata Capital Financial to raise at least Rs50 cr via 5-year bonds at 7.68% coupon
M&M Financial Services to raise at least Rs250 cr via reissue of 8.20% July 2032 bonds
Avanse Financial Services to raise:
a.Rs200 cr via 20-month bonds at 9.30% coupon
Read 5 tweets
Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Sep 5
.@CNBCTV18Live
Equirus on @cubltd
Downgrade to Reduce from ADD
TP Rs155 from Rs170
Time to reassess CUBK’s capabilities
Recently, the RBI – under the RTI Act – shared its Risk Inspection Report (RAR) on City Union
Bank (CUBK) for FY17 to FY19
Based on the analysis of the RAR, key
takeaways are:
➢ An RTI application was filed by activist Mr. Subhash Agrawal. Earlier too, Mr. Agrawal
had sought copies of RBI’s inspection reports on ICICIBC, AXSB, HDFCB and SBIN for
FY11-FY15 to extract information in the backdrop of mounting bad debts at banks.
➢ RBI’s key observations based on sample cases: (a) Instances of sanction of enhancement/
ad hoc limits to some borrowers even with a deterioration in the financials to avoid NPA
tag. (b) Lack of proper due diligence, monitoring, and control with instances of policy
breach.
Read 4 tweets
Abhishek Kothari 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Sep 5
.@CNBCTV18Live
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank IPO
RBI has asked them to get listed, which is why they are getting listed
MD retired on 4th Sept’22, new MD in place from 5th Sept’22… on the day of the IPO
Elevated stress assets in the book, 19.6% of loans under SARFAESI
Valuation in line with peers or higher than some more peers

SWOT Analysis
Strength
Adequately capitalized
Return ratios are healthy due to high NIMs
Weakness
Outstanding legal issues on 37.73% equity
Loans
•19.6% of loans are in SARFAESI
•41.6% of loans are in moratorium
•GNPA ratio at 1.7%
Many instances of whistleblower complaints
Some of the corporate accounts are untraceable

Opportunities
---------

Threats
Employee Union
Regional concentration: 75% book in tamil nadu
GNPA ratio has only improved ahead of IPO
Dispute in ownership*
Read 6 tweets

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