Abhishek Kothari ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Profile picture
Sr Research Analyst,. tracks BFSI at CNBC TV 18. Sell side analyst earlier. Views r personal. RT aren't endorsements. Comments aren't recommendations. F1 fan.
13 Jan
Thread on IRFC IPO
Open on 18th Janโ€™21
Closes on 20th Janโ€™21
IPO size: Rs4455.2-Rs4633.4 cr
Break up:
Offer for sale Rs1485.1cr โ€“ Rs1544.5 cr
Fresh issue: Rs2970.1 cr โ€“ Rs3088.9

Valuations: P/BV Q2FY21, post fund raise
At Rs25 โ€“ 0.94x
At Rs26 โ€“ 0.98x
What does the co. do?
Market borrowing arm of Indian Railways
Primary business is acquisition of rolling stock assets, powered & unpowered vehicles
Follow financial leasing model for financing the rolling stock assets
Can do all work for railways except electrification
Funding profile of Indian Railways = Mkt borrowing & own source; Mkt borrowing is handled by IRFC
GOI decides its spreads or margins
IRFC can give all capex loans to Indian Railways or subs โ€“ this has lower spreads
Co. doesnโ€™t have to pay tax due to rolling asset depreciations
Read 6 tweets
11 Jan
Bond mkt actions
JM Financial credit solutions to raise Rs25cr, re-issue of 9.2%, Novโ€™30 bonds
Tata Cap Hsng takes Rs50cr at 7.33%, 10 yr subordinated bonds
Cholamandalam Invt takes Rs480cr at 5.48%, 2yr bonds
SBI Cards & Payments to raise funds via shorter tenor bond soon

Tata Projects to raise funds via over one-month CP at 3.57% coupon
Tata Power to raise funds via two-month CP at 3.27% coupon
Axis Finance to raise funds via two-month CP at 3.31% coupon
ICICI Securities to raise funds via over two-month CP at 3.31% coupon
Godrej Agrovet to raise funds via over two-month CP at 3.27% coupon
NABARD to raise funds via three-month CP at 3.33% coupon
Godrej Industries to raise funds via three-month CP at 3.42% coupon
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul 20
@KotakBankLtd Concall Highlights
@udaykotak says:
Moving to new normal world โ€“ last time spoken
The way virus is going & economy is going โ€“ now in a never normal world
Constant changing world
Saw surge in activity in the month of june
Early data for July suggests flattening viz-a-viz June rather than increasing
Hope to see COVID19 to peak out at Aug-Sept
There are some encouraging signs from Mumbai & Delhi
Economy will get back to 2019 runrate by Q2 2021-22
Moratorium 2.0 is at 9.65% of the book
Fundamental philosophy deeply committed to is B/S is more imp than short term P&L
Used surgical criteria for taking decisions on moratorium 2.0
Trying to find fundamentally viability of the customer to give out moratorium 2.0
Some accounts have flown into NPA
Read 6 tweets
14 Apr 20
Deepak Parekh of .@HomeLoansByHDFC says:
There is HOPE
This time will pass
Facing disruptions & dislocations like never before
This situation will unwind
No clarity on the timeline
Never before has world economy shrunk by 12% in one quarter
Most brutal collapse of equity this yr
There is slump in oil prices
80-85% of Indiaโ€™s requirement of oil is imported
Skirmish fight between OPEX, oil producing countries & Russia
Each one wants other to reduce production price by $10/barrel
Oil takes 10% of our wholesale price index & 3% of consumer price index
Donโ€™t think that we have reached the bottom of share prices yet
Emerging mkts have fallen more than developed mkt
Most countries've given stimulus measures; but they are all inadequate
Persistent strength of the US dollar has pushed major emerging economies to depreciate sharply
Read 13 tweets
6 Apr 20
@Bajaj_Finance Concall
Need from RBI:
a.Freezing of dpd for customers
b.Need low cost window opportunity for a year
c. One time restructuring of all loans
COVID-19 is the most brutal incidence seen impacting economy
Lost `4750 cr of AUM growth due to 80 day qtr
Q1 disruption will be more severe as it will be 60 day qtr
B2C is 20% of business; loans given to existing customers only
COVID-19 will have severe impact on all aspects of all businesses
Rural โ€“ 9% of B/S โ€“ expect recovery to be faster
Commercial clients will work for foreseeable period only with existing clients
Commercial clients portfolio is down 35-40% in last few days
Focused in building retail brokerage business
Decided to hold all fixed cost at current levels till Octโ€™20
Hawkish few on incremental capex
Read 6 tweets