Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Sep 7, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I am not very good at graphics, but I tried to draw up an explainer for the Ukrainian Kupiansk Offensive:

Redish = the territory occupied by russia

• yesterday Ukrainian troops liberated Balakliia (Blue 1)
• during the night Ukrainian troops moved to Volokhiv Yar (Blue 2)
1/n Image
• currently Ukrainian troops are advancing to Shevchenkove (Blue 3)

Once Ukrainian troops have firmly established themselves in these three settlements, the russian forces in the black hatched area must retreat North or will be crushed by Ukrainian forces.

2/n
Once the black hatched area is cleared Ukraine can move its M777 up and take the rail and road junctions, and russian supply depots in Kupiansk under fire.

The outer yellow rings show the range of M982 Excalibur rounds for precision strikes and the inner yellow rings show

3/n Image
the range of unguided M795 155 mm projectiles.

With Kupiansk (upper red circle) under artillery fire, the russian supply line to its forces around Izyum (lower red circle) becomes unusable.
If Ukraine then uses M777 fired Excalibur projectiles and M142 HIMARS fired M31A1

4/n Image
GMLRS rockets to take out the bridges over the Oskil river (the four purple pentagons) and whatever pontoon bridges the russians try to build, then the russian forces West of the Oskil river are trapped, just like the russian forces in Kherson.

5/n Image
This will give Ukraine two options how to finish the russians:
• either advance and take Kupiansk (Green 4) and then battle the trapped russians into surrender or
• leave an escape route for the russians between Shevchenkove and Kupiansk and then hammer them with

6/n
artillery, TB2 drones, and rocket artillery when they flee North.

The first option guarantees annihilation for 10,000+ russians, but will also cause many Ukrainian casualties, while the second will brutally decimate the fleeing russians, with minimal Ukrainian losses.

7/n
No matter what options the Ukrainians choose, the russian forces West of the Oskil are doomed, as putin doesn't have 5-6,000 fresh troops for a counter attack.

This offensive (like the Kherson Offensive) makes excellent use of rivers, and while the Kherson Offensive ensures
8/n
that russia can never launch an attack on Mykolaiv, the Kupiansk Offensive ensures that russia can never launch an attack on Sloviansk.

And with no chance to take Sloviansk, russia has also lost the Battle of Donbas.

putin is a moron, and now all can finally see that.

9/end

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More from @noclador

Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12 Image
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12 Image
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 3
Are the American M142 HIMARS and the M270A2 MLRS the best rocket/missile launchers... yes, they are.

Should Europe buy them? No.

Not as long as @LockheedMartin doesn't have a production line IN EUROPE for GMLRS, GMLRS-ER, ATACMS and PrSM missiles... but as long as Europe
1/9 Image
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is ordering only itsy-bitsy amounts of missiles, there is no incentive for Lockheed Martin to produce missiles in Europe... which means at any given moment MAGA can deny Europe the needed missiles to defend itself against a russian attack.
So... Europe can either order 10,000
2/n
missiles per year,... or have a look at the second best rocket/missile launcher: Israel's PULS.

Should Europe buy it? No.

Because the missile production line in Israel is too small to support Europe's missile needs... again, Europe would have to either commit to buy 10,000
3/n Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 1
Let's run some numbers on Ukraine's brilliant operation to take out russia's strategic aviation deep in russia and Siberia.

8× containers are visible in this image

As Ukraine sent 2× containers to each of the 5× air bases they attacked, another 2× must be out of sight.
1/6 Image
Each container roof seems to have housed 9 compartments. Here we can see that at 3× per compartments, but they might have even had space for 4× drones.
Quick math: that's 27× or 36× drones.
Two containers per air base: 54× or 72× drones

But (!) not all compartments likely
2/6 Image
held drones.

As we saw in this video from on of the containers launching drones, the roof of the containers slid to the side and fell down... so one compartment might have housed the motor and system to slide the roof off.

Also all the containers self-destructed once they
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
Italy's 61º Stormo received enough of the new T-345A basic jet trainers to begin pilot training this June.

As everyone knows, I am all for growing European militaries and adding capabilities... but why does EVERYTHING have to be with US engines?

Europe must stop buying US
1/22 Image
made kit, components and weapon systems.

The Italian T-345A (left) and the Czech L-39 Skyfox (right) are the only two basic jet trainers currently in production in Europe... and both use a Williams International FJ44-4M turbofan made in Ogden, Utah.

Yes, there are more
2/n Image
Image
American components than just the engines in both, but as aircraft are designed around their engines Europe needs to stop buying American and start building engines again.

Both planes the T-345A and L-39 Skyfox replace used European engines: the Italian MB-339 (pic)
3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 28
To my American followers: it is time to plan for exile.

Doesn't mean you will have to leave, but based on experiences of Jews fleeing Nazi Germany after 1933 here are a few things to make escape and exile easier:

1) get an up to date passport (the regime might no issue you
1/12
one in the future thus stranding you)
2) if possible get a passport from another nation. It doesn't matter which; just get a passport the regime can't cancel.
3) open bank accounts in a foreign nation (I can't stress this enough! The regime will freeze your American accounts,
2/n
which will prevent you i.e. from booking a flight; and you will arrive in another nation penniless if you do not shift your funds into a non-American bank in a non-American nation ASAP)
4) plan for the regime putting you on a no-fly list. How can you get to the border and to
3/n
Read 12 tweets
Mar 26
This is the wing, which trains the fighter pilots of 🇧🇪Belgium, 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇩🇪 Germany, the 🇳🇱 Netherlands, 🇳🇴 Norway and 🇷🇴 Romania.

But all those people are wearing 🇺🇸 US Air Force uniforms... well, of course - the aforementioned countries' fighter pilots are trained by
1/8 Image
the US Air Force's 80th Flying Training Wing based at Sheppard Air Force Base in Texas, which is home to the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training.

Canada, Greece, Italy (pic), Portugal, Spain, Türkiye and the United Kingdom also have the right to train pilots at Sheppard, but
2/n Image
those nations also retain a national training pipeline, that Trump/Musk can't shut down.

Germany even moved basic training with Grob 120TP trainers to Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Arizona.

Yes, it makes sense to bundle the advanced and jet training of European air forces,
3/n Image
Read 8 tweets

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