Thread by @noclador

I am not very good at graphics, but I tried to draw up an explainer for the Ukrainian Kupiansk Offensive:

Redish = the territory occupied by russia

• yesterday Ukrainian troops liberated Balakliia (Blue 1)
• during the night Ukrainian troops moved to Volokhiv Yar (Blue 2)
1/n

• currently Ukrainian troops are advancing to Shevchenkove (Blue 3)

Once Ukrainian troops have firmly established themselves in these three settlements, the russian forces in the black hatched area must retreat North or will be crushed by Ukrainian forces.

2/n

Once the black hatched area is cleared Ukraine can move its M777 up and take the rail and road junctions, and russian supply depots in Kupiansk under fire.

The outer yellow rings show the range of M982 Excalibur rounds for precision strikes and the inner yellow rings show

3/n

the range of unguided M795 155 mm projectiles.

With Kupiansk (upper red circle) under artillery fire, the russian supply line to its forces around Izyum (lower red circle) becomes unusable.
If Ukraine then uses M777 fired Excalibur projectiles and M142 HIMARS fired M31A1

4/n

GMLRS rockets to take out the bridges over the Oskil river (the four purple pentagons) and whatever pontoon bridges the russians try to build, then the russian forces West of the Oskil river are trapped, just like the russian forces in Kherson.

5/n

This will give Ukraine two options how to finish the russians:
• either advance and take Kupiansk (Green 4) and then battle the trapped russians into surrender or
• leave an escape route for the russians between Shevchenkove and Kupiansk and then hammer them with

6/n

artillery, TB2 drones, and rocket artillery when they flee North.

The first option guarantees annihilation for 10,000+ russians, but will also cause many Ukrainian casualties, while the second will brutally decimate the fleeing russians, with minimal Ukrainian losses.

7/n

No matter what options the Ukrainians choose, the russian forces West of the Oskil are doomed, as putin doesn't have 5-6,000 fresh troops for a counter attack.

This offensive (like the Kherson Offensive) makes excellent use of rivers, and while the Kherson Offensive ensures
8/n

that russia can never launch an attack on Mykolaiv, the Kupiansk Offensive ensures that russia can never launch an attack on Sloviansk.

And with no chance to take Sloviansk, russia has also lost the Battle of Donbas.

putin is a moron, and now all can finally see that.

9/end