I am not very good at graphics, but I tried to draw up an explainer for the Ukrainian Kupiansk Offensive:
Redish = the territory occupied by russia
• yesterday Ukrainian troops liberated Balakliia (Blue 1)
• during the night Ukrainian troops moved to Volokhiv Yar (Blue 2) 1/n
• currently Ukrainian troops are advancing to Shevchenkove (Blue 3)
Once Ukrainian troops have firmly established themselves in these three settlements, the russian forces in the black hatched area must retreat North or will be crushed by Ukrainian forces.
2/n
Once the black hatched area is cleared Ukraine can move its M777 up and take the rail and road junctions, and russian supply depots in Kupiansk under fire.
The outer yellow rings show the range of M982 Excalibur rounds for precision strikes and the inner yellow rings show
3/n
the range of unguided M795 155 mm projectiles.
With Kupiansk (upper red circle) under artillery fire, the russian supply line to its forces around Izyum (lower red circle) becomes unusable.
If Ukraine then uses M777 fired Excalibur projectiles and M142 HIMARS fired M31A1
4/n
GMLRS rockets to take out the bridges over the Oskil river (the four purple pentagons) and whatever pontoon bridges the russians try to build, then the russian forces West of the Oskil river are trapped, just like the russian forces in Kherson.
5/n
This will give Ukraine two options how to finish the russians:
• either advance and take Kupiansk (Green 4) and then battle the trapped russians into surrender or
• leave an escape route for the russians between Shevchenkove and Kupiansk and then hammer them with
6/n
artillery, TB2 drones, and rocket artillery when they flee North.
The first option guarantees annihilation for 10,000+ russians, but will also cause many Ukrainian casualties, while the second will brutally decimate the fleeing russians, with minimal Ukrainian losses.
7/n
No matter what options the Ukrainians choose, the russian forces West of the Oskil are doomed, as putin doesn't have 5-6,000 fresh troops for a counter attack.
This offensive (like the Kherson Offensive) makes excellent use of rivers, and while the Kherson Offensive ensures
8/n
that russia can never launch an attack on Mykolaiv, the Kupiansk Offensive ensures that russia can never launch an attack on Sloviansk.
And with no chance to take Sloviansk, russia has also lost the Battle of Donbas.
putin is a moron, and now all can finally see that.
9/end
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People have forgotten the insane density (and cost) of NATO's Cold War SAM belts.
In Germany alone the HAWK belt consisted of (from North to South):
• 24× German
• 12× Dutch
• 8x Belgian
• 35× US Army
• 12× German
1/8
HAWK sites, each of which was filled with radars and missile launchers. (Photo: the Dutch HAWK site on Velmerstot in Germany).
Between the SAM belt and the border mobile radars, and short range air defense systems like Gepard, Roland, Chaparral, VADS, etc. as well as mobile 2/8
Javelin and Stinger teams covered the units operating there.
And behind the HAWK SAM (Surface to Air Missile) belt followed a second SAM belt, with long range NIKE HERCULES missiles, which carried nuclear warheads. All this was backed up by German, US Air Force, British 3/8
On April Fool's Day the head of the German Navy's Naval Aviation the #Marineflieger joked that the Marineflieger would finally get fighter jets again...
This should NOT be a joke.
This should be a high priority investment for the Bundeswehr.
A thread about 🇩🇪🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇵🇱🇬🇧:
1/17
During the Cold War the West German & Danish navies' tasks were to:
• prevent the Soviet Baltic, East German & Polish fleets from transiting the Skagerrak
• prevent Warsaw Pact amphibious landings on the Danish isles
For this the German forces in Schleswig Holstein & the
2/17
Danish military were assigned to NATO's Allied Forces Baltic Approaches (BALTAP) Command.
To defend the sea approaches BALTAP had 30 submarines, 56 missile boats, some 60 mine layers, and land based Harpoon missile batteries (which were transferred to Ukraine in June 2022).
3/17
The Soviet Union was losing the war against Germany.
Only the 🇺🇸 US industry saved the Soviets.
In 1941 in seven months of war in the East the Wehrmacht suffered 285,400 irrecoverable losses vs. 3,137,673 irrecoverable Soviet losses. A ratio of 1 to 11 (!). 1/6
In the 12 months of 1942 the Wehrmacht suffered 500,700 irrecoverable losses vs. 3,258,216 Soviet irrecoverable losses. A ratio of 1 to 6.5.
BUT from 1941 to 1942 Soviet average monthly losses decreased by 176,700 troops... because US Lend/Lease materiel began to arrive. 2/6
Especially helpful were 312,600 American trucks (which incl. about 187,900 Studebaker US6). This allowed the Soviets to motorize their rifle divisions and vastly improved Red Army logistics. (The Soviet Union only produced 150,000 trucks during the entire war). 3/6
During the Cold War the British Army was the smallest of the four big (🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹) European NATO armies.
The British Army fielded 13 brigades (+ the Royal Marines' Commando brigade), while Germany fielded 38 and Italy 25 brigades. 1/6
France fielded 12 divisions, which each had the strength of 2× standard NATO brigades.
But no one complained, because at the time the Royal Air Force was the biggest air force on the continent with some 800+ fighters & bombers. Only France fielded a comparable air force. 2/6
And the Royal Navy was the second biggest navy in NATO with more ocean-going ships than the French, German and Italian navies combined (!).
But after the Cold War, and especially under the Tory governments since 2010, the British Armed Forces have been wrecked. 3/6
#Transnistria asking putin to annex it to russia is insane.
The center of Tiraspol, the capital of this russian created fake state, is barely 10km from Ukraine... and there are 0 geographical obstacles between Ukraine and Transnistria.
The six Ukrainian brigades currently 1/4
in the Odesa region (20,000+ battle hardened troops) outmatch the approximately 4,000 Transnistrian troops and 1,000 russian troops. And half of the Transnistrian troops are in the north, while half of the russians are on the other side of the Dniester in the city of Bender,
2/4
with just one bridge connecting Bender to the rest of Transnistria... not to mention that if Ukraine goes in, then so will Moldova and Romania, which will see the few Transnistrian troops attacked from ALL sides.
Ukraine has the easiest route to enter Transnistria: this image 3/4