@kamilkazani gave us all an early May 2022 thread which included this infographic tweet explaining how Russian forces of the "Putin Imperium" are structured.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense counts Russian Army, Wagner, Chechin & the LNR/DNR colonial militias as "Russian."
Now compare that 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 CONFIRMED Russian Army-only deaths #'s with Ukraine's 5 Sept. 2022 #'s for all Russian forces. 3/
When you roll back to 29 Aug 2022, this was the Ukrainian MoD's "Russian KIA count" number.
The Uke MoD count was 1,738 dead Russian soldiers _LOWER_ than the 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 CONFIRMED Russian Army-only death count.
4/
Figures like this May 6th 2022 DNR casualty report are not included in that 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 Russian deaths figure.
Being as it is September 7th 2022, about 2/3 of those 34K at start DNR/LNR militia forces have been turned into casualties, that is, around 22,600 troops.
The CIA's 1 in 5 KIA ratio would make for 4530 dead.
The Uke 1 in 3 KIA ratio would make for 7,555 dead.
8/
So, if you subtract Uke MoD 7,555 colonial militia ratio number from the total 47,100 Russian death number for 29 Aug 2022.
You get 39,455.
Divide 39,455 by 48,838 and the "adjusted Russian MoD only" ratio shows the Ukrainian count is ~81% the Russian actual...
9/
...and this still leaves out Wagner group and other Russian mercenary casualties.
So every time you look at Ukrainian MoD numbers for Russian KIA. You need to look at them as at least 20% low.
And multiply that number by three to get total Russian KIA/WIA/MIA casualty #'s.
10/
So, multiply Ukraine's 49,800 5 Sept. 2022 number of Russian dead by three for total casualties yields 149,400.
Then multiply 149,400 by 1.2 for the Ukraine MoD casualty conservatism.
11/
And you get a total "Putin's Russian Imperium" casualty count of around ~179,280 to date.
This would go a long way to explaining the on-going Russian collapse in the Kharkiv Oblast we are seeing today.
12/12 End
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**Follow On Forces Attack, AKA FOFA, a late Cold War NATO military doctrine
...this is not surprising. The Russians have no idea of the actual trouble they are in now.
National Security Advisor Sullivan and NSC -- the DC de-escalation faction's head -- are in the same
2/
... trouble as well as the scale of their "MISPREDICTIONS BLOAT" about the irrational & brittle nature of Russia's Kleptocratic state meets the reality of massive Russian military defeat.
It isn't just a matter of codes, cyphers and operational plans & the disasters those represent.
That headquarters has all the Russian government political & military policy directives that reached that Front headquarters from pre-war planning to date.
2/8
It has all the filtration lists, the kill lists, all the information on who & what to ethnically cleanse.
It also has all the various Russian government ministry directives on what to steal from Ukraine and who to sent it to.
3/8
Russian occupation officials say Russian units recently arrived from within the Russian Federation are now defending #Kupiansk, Ukraine from the approaching AFU counteroffensive👇
It looks like the Kharkiv Oblast break-in point chosen by Ukraine was so lightly held that any serious mechanized force would blow through it like tissue paper with no local reserves behind the lines to stop it.
This means the Ukrainian forces involved could be as small as 1/7
...a Ukrainian reinforced tank or mechanized brigade could be involved in this offensive. (H/T @battle_order)
This points up a real problem with Russian intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) assets versus Ukraine's integrated air defenses.
2/7
Russia has to be allocating its drone ISR assets across the whole of the vast Ukrainian front line – Kherson first first, then Donbass, then dribs to the rest of the front.
And Ukraine is Texas sized. (GMLRS/ATACMS map by @ameliairheart)
The Soviet Union produced 10,000 KS-19 anti-aircraft guns from 1948 to 1957. They have a range of up to 21 km and at an altitude of up to 15 km at air targets with a flight speed of up to 1200 km/h.
The guns were finally removed from Army service in the 1980's and were
2/6
... used to start avalanches in mountain passes and resorts inside Russia by the "Roshydromet" (Russian Hydrometeorological Service).
Removing them from the Roshydromet to provide artillery support in Ukraine 3/6
It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian military has enough local mobile forces to make this into an operational scale breakthrough offensive that cuts the Russian ground lines of communications to Izyum.
2/4
The only rapidly available tool for the Russians appears to be airpower.
The Russians have to commit the VKS in a big way to slow this Ukrainian break-in down and helicopter lift infantry blocking forces in front of the Ukrainians to save their logistical position at Izyum.
3/4