Thread by @TrentTelenko

For all those who have been giving me h--l for saying the Ukrainians have always undercounted Russian deaths & casualties.

Read the casualty 🧵below and weep.

Weep at your own stupidity.

1/

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1567486326580150273

@kamilkazani gave us all an early May 2022 thread which included this infographic tweet explaining how Russian forces of the "Putin Imperium" are structured.

2/

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522290839489335297

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense counts Russian Army, Wagner, Chechin & the LNR/DNR colonial militias as "Russian."

Now compare that 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 CONFIRMED Russian Army-only deaths #'s with Ukraine's 5 Sept. 2022 #'s for all Russian forces.
3/

When you roll back to 29 Aug 2022, this was the Ukrainian MoD's "Russian KIA count" number.

The Uke MoD count was 1,738 dead Russian soldiers _LOWER_ than the 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 CONFIRMED Russian Army-only death count.

4/

Figures like this May 6th 2022 DNR casualty report are not included in that 28 Aug 2022 Russian Ministry of Finance 48,838 Russian deaths figure.

5/

https://twitter.com/Irkutyanin1/status/1522651447531352066

Now compare those DNR casualty report figures with at start (24 Feb 2022) Russian LNR/DNR colonial militia standing forces numbers below.

The LNR had 14K troops while the DNR had 20K troops.

6/

https://twitter.com/Irkutyanin1/status/1522652917655875590

We can tell how bad casualties have been in the DNR Russian colonial militia forces, thanks to 5 May 2022 videos like this.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1522250312777670657

7/

Being as it is September 7th 2022, about 2/3 of those 34K at start DNR/LNR militia forces have been turned into casualties, that is, around 22,600 troops.

The CIA's 1 in 5 KIA ratio would make for 4530 dead.

The Uke 1 in 3 KIA ratio would make for 7,555 dead.

8/

So, if you subtract Uke MoD 7,555 colonial militia ratio number from the total 47,100 Russian death number for 29 Aug 2022.

You get 39,455.

Divide 39,455 by 48,838 and the "adjusted Russian MoD only" ratio shows the Ukrainian count is ~81% the Russian actual...

9/

...and this still leaves out Wagner group and other Russian mercenary casualties.

So every time you look at Ukrainian MoD numbers for Russian KIA. You need to look at them as at least 20% low.

And multiply that number by three to get total Russian KIA/WIA/MIA casualty #'s.
10/

So, multiply Ukraine's 49,800 5 Sept. 2022 number of Russian dead by three for total casualties yields 149,400.

Then multiply 149,400 by 1.2 for the Ukraine MoD casualty conservatism.
11/

And you get a total "Putin's Russian Imperium" casualty count of around ~179,280 to date.

This would go a long way to explaining the on-going Russian collapse in the Kharkiv Oblast we are seeing today.
12/12 End