Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) geolocated this video of a russian pontoon ferry coming under attack on the Dnipro in Nova Kakhovka.
Injured russians, panicked russian meme face, etc. aside - but I want to know what hit this ferry.
1/n
Injured russians, panicked russian meme face, etc. aside - but I want to know what hit this ferry.
1/n
1) the precision of the impact makes it clear that a guided projectile hit the ferry
2) and the distance from the ferry to Ukrainian lines makes it impossible that 155 mm artillery projectiles were used. The ferry's location is even outside the range of Excalibur projectiles.
2/n
2) and the distance from the ferry to Ukrainian lines makes it impossible that 155 mm artillery projectiles were used. The ferry's location is even outside the range of Excalibur projectiles.
2/n
3) this leaves M142 HIMARS fired GMLRS missiles... but the explosive force of three M31A1 would have caused way more death and destruction, and likely sunk the ferry. While a M30A1 would have shredded every living thing on the ferry... so both of these can be ruled out too.
3/n
3/n
4) this leaves us with two possibilities: MAM-L and MAM-C laser-guided bombs released and guided to the ferry by a Bayraktar TB2 or Guided Long Range (GLR) IMU/GPS-guided Vulcano 155 mm artillery projectiles with a range of 70 km fired from a PzH 2000 or CAESAR.
4/n
4/n
With the available information I cannot conclude which of the latter two munitions was used... but that is not as relevant as the following conclusion:
• if it was a Vulcano strike, then the PzH 2000 crew had to time the moment of firing so that the projectiles would hit
5/n
• if it was a Vulcano strike, then the PzH 2000 crew had to time the moment of firing so that the projectiles would hit
5/n
the ferry in the few moments it was docked at the pier. This could only have been achieved with a Ukrainian drone circling above the ferry.
• and if it was a TB2 strike, then that TB2 was circling above the ferry too.
This means Ukraine can now fly drones all over Kherson
6/n
• and if it was a TB2 strike, then that TB2 was circling above the ferry too.
This means Ukraine can now fly drones all over Kherson
6/n
without worrying about russian air defenses.
Because if russia can't even defend the ferry, which is its most important supply line, then there are no russian air defenses in the rest of Kherson.
Kherson is now a giant TB2 playground 😃😃
7/end
Because if russia can't even defend the ferry, which is its most important supply line, then there are no russian air defenses in the rest of Kherson.
Kherson is now a giant TB2 playground 😃😃
7/end
As @imcryptoJack noted at 55 seconds in the video a shell impacts the water just a meter or so off the ferry's side... a TB2 never misses.
So we're likely seeing the first use of German-delivered Vulcano GLR projectiles.
So we're likely seeing the first use of German-delivered Vulcano GLR projectiles.
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