1/ Interesting short post by the Fighterbomber Telegram page on VKS air operations in the Kharkiv area over past three days.
Photos of 🇷🇺 Su-25SMs & 🇺🇦 Buk-M1's 9A310M1 TELAR on the right are for illustrative purposes.
A short thread with key points (my remarks in parentheses) 👇
2/ Firstly, as always, take claims by Russian telegram channels with a grain of salt.
3/ The post claims that the Kharkiv area has one of the densest concentration of Ukrainian air defenses (ADs) in the country. It also claims that, rather than cover their forces, Ukrainian ADs attempt to ambush Russian aircraft after the latter have delivered their ordnance.
4/ For example, it claims that Ukrainian ADs attempt to engage the last aircraft in a group that is egressing after having attacked ground targets. (This is not the first time Russian sources have made such claims).
5/ "There are [SAM] launches ... practically against every strike group," the post goes on to note. ("Group" is used to refer to two or more aircraft). According to the post, Ukrainian ADs haven't had much success in downing Russian aircraft in Kharkiv area over the past 3 days.
6/ Russian aircraft have "changed their tactic," the post alleges, adding that "it is working for now. According to the post only "one Su-25 has been lost" & some other aircraft have taken damage.
7/ The post claims that Russian aircraft are only attacking targets with known coordinates. "No one is going to loiter & try to make out what tank went where," it adds. Coordinates are provided by Russian forces on the ground. Russian aircraft are employing both bombs & rockets.
8/8 (Given the heavy presence of Ukrainian ADs & the limited target acquisition & self-protection capabilities of Russian aircraft (especially Su-25s & Su-25SMs), the claim that Russian aircraft are only being employed to attack targets with known coordinates makes sense).
-END-
A final key point the post makes: because Russian aircraft are only attacking targets with known coordinates, the effectiveness of Russian air operations in the Kharkiv area heavily depends on reconnaissance (by ground forces) & "accurately and timely issued target coordinates."
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1/ Stills from another new TV Zvezda segment on VKS #Su34 operations against Ukraine. Once again, the strike fighters are shown equipped with Kh-29T-series air-to-surface missiles. As with previous videos, a large number of unguided bombs can also be seen in the background.
1/ It seems that, as I suggested earlier, the VKS Su-35S that was lost in early April was indeed an "ARM shooter." The still on the left (taken from a video uploaded on April 4) shows the remains of a Kh-31P-series anti-radiation missile near the inboard port wing station.
2/ The still on the right in the post above (taken from the same video) shows roughly where the missile body was before being removed (the missile's body can be seen in the image below, which was taken before the video).
3/3 Link to video with some close up footage of the Su-35S' remains.
1/ More updates on Russian air & missile strikes in this latest DoD brief. 🧵👇
The US observed atleast 50 additional missile launches since last brief.
"We've observed more than 1,950, now, missile launches" since the beginning of the war. defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
2/ "the preponderance of strikes still are in the JFO and Mariupol, and I would add that in Mariupol, what we're seeing, a predominance of the ordinance being dropped is dumb ordinance, not precision-guided."
3/ "we think that that speaks to challenges that the Russians are having with PGM replenishment."
1/ Latest US DoD brief on the war in Ukraine has a few updates on Russian air ops & missile strikes. 🧵 👇
"We are now on day 63, and on day 63 we can report that there's been more than 1,900 missile launches since the beginning of the invasion." defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
2/ "Most of the missile launches and, quite frankly, fixed-wing strikes on Ukraine continue to be happening in Mariupol and in the Joint Force operation area, basically, the Donbas region."
3/ "what we've seen [the Russians] do with their Navy in the Sea of Azov is largely two things, one, use their cruise missile capability to strike targets inside Ukraine; and, two, to resupply and reinforce ground forces there."
1/ An important thing to keep an eye out for is information pertaining to the forward deployment of VKS Army Aviation (rotary-wing) assets. The Russians will not launch a major ground op without them. Currently, there are just two permanent Russian helicopter bases within...
2/ close proximity to Ukraine:
Dzhankoi (39th Helicopter Regiment) in Crimea (<50km from the border) & Zernograd (16th Army Aviation Brigade) in Rostov Oblast (~150km from the border). All other permanent helicopter bases are over 200km from the border.
3/ Locating forward deployment locations for Army Aviation units, however, is greatly complicated by the fact that Russia has quite a few air bases within 150-200km or less of the border that could be used for such purposes.