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Guy Plopsky Profile picture
Guy Plopsky
@GuyPlopsky
Defense analyst 🇮🇱. Primary areas of focus: air power, Russian military affairs, and Asia-Pacific security. Also interested in NATO and MENA.
11 subscribers
Oct 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ A short post on the "Dva Majora" (Two Majors) Telegram channel regarding the S-70 shoot down incident claims the following:

"This was the first combat evaluation. At the end of testing, control over the vehicle was indeed lost."

(Image unreleated to incident) Image 2/ "The S-70 left the zone of combat duty and was shot down by our accompanying fighter so as to eliminate the risks of the prototype combat vehicle diverting to the enemy."
Jan 5 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ The Jan. 2024 edition of Military Thought features an article entitled "Peculiarities of Air Tactics in Modern Combat Operations & Ways of their Improvement." It includes a section listing some of the "unfavorable factors reducing the effectiveness of VVS aviation operations." Image 2/ While the section offers nothing new to those who follow the Russian Air Force (VVS) and the war in Ukraine, it is nevertheless notable because one of the authors is VVS commander Col. Gen. Sergey Dronov.
Factors identified by Dronov and his co-authors (two colonels) include:
Jun 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The VKS and PLAAF held another joint patrol with Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers and H-6K bombers. The Russian MoD reports that the joint patrol was conducted over the East China Sea, Sea of Japan and Pacific Ocean, lasting approximately 8 hours. ImageImageImageImage 2/ Per the MoD, the aircraft were escorted by Su-35S, Su-30SM & J-11B fighters. Latter two types are not shown; however, the video briefly shows a Su-35S ("21" Blue), MiG-31BSM ("94" Blue) & Su-30M2 ("41" Blue). All 3 are assigned to the 22nd IAP based in Tsentralnaya Uglovaya. ImageImageImage
May 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Since someone asked why Su-34s are typically shown carrying just 1 ARM each:
Su-34 SEAD patrols are largely meant to deter Ukrainian SAM operators from emitting. They are conducted in a risk-averse manner; the Su-34s appear to operate well inside Russian-controlled airspace... 2/ and rarely (if at all) enter the engagement zones of Ukrainian SAM systems inorder to attempt to entice their operators into activating their radars so as to then attack them with ARMs. Hence, Su-34s seemingly oftentimes do not launch ARMs on such patrols, especially given...
May 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ "A US-made Patriot air defense system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a US official tells CNN."
cnn.com/2023/05/16/pol… 2/2 "The US is still assessing to what degree the system was damaged, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by Ukrainians forces."
May 16, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/ Anonymous sources cited by Izvestia assert that Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles are being launched by Ukrainian Su-24Ms, which operate "under the cover of MiG-29 & Su-27 fighters [equipped] with HARM anti-radiation missiles."
iz.ru/1513291/izvest… 2/ According to the sources, "[to ensure the safety of their aviation, the Ukrainian command is [also] actively using false targets in the form of UAVs" (presumably, they mean Miniature Air-Launched Decoys (MALDs), though other UAVs may be employed for this purpose as well).
Apr 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
An A-10, assigned to the 422nd TES takes off for a test mission, at Nellis AFB, Nevada, April 19, 2023. The 422nd TES is testing an updated version of Operation Flight Program 11, to test a software patch, allowing the GBU-39 SDB employment on two additional weapons stations. Image (📸/U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis) ImageImageImageImage
Apr 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Stills from a new war-related Russian MoD clip on Su-34 operations showing:

A Kh-29T-series TV-guided air-to-surface missile (ASM) on the inboard starboard wing station (station 12) of a VKS Su-34 strike fighter. Image 2/ Close-up of a Kh-29T-series ASM's TV seeker assembly.

Also, visible in the background is the Su-34's L265VP starboard wingtip ECM pod. Image
Feb 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Big if true. Its very likely that the AEW&C aircraft forward-deployed in Belarus is a modernized version of the A-50 (designated A-50U). The VKS is known to operate just seven A-50Us. The A-50U fleet has seen extensive use in the war against Ukraine. Its worth noting that A-50U Bort "43" Red recently took part in the joint Russia-Belarus "tactical flight exercise." Whether it remained in Belarus following the exercise or has since been replaced by another A-50U is unclear.
Feb 22, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The Fighterbomber Telegram page recently posted a short update on Russian aircraft activity in the war. Below is a translation of the main points (for the sake of clarity, I've included some remarks in parentheses). 👇 2/ "How is our aviation doing?

Without much change. For four months now, bombers (i.e. strike aircraft), fighters and long-rangers (i.e long-range aviation - LRA) have been working with guided weapons from distances inaccessible to enemy air defenses."
Feb 2, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Available footage from the recently held joint Russia-Belarus "tactical flight exercise" suggests that it did not extensively incorporate lessons from Ukraine. That said, the exercise did include several noteworthy elements in this regard. (A short 🧵with a few examples 👇). Image 2/ The Belarusian side trained to conduct combat search & rescue (CSAR). Retrieval of "downed" airmen was performed by Mi-8MTV-5-1s supported by Mi-24s. A 🇧🇾 military official described it as "quite a difficult element " with "conditions approximating those of actual combat." ImageImageImageImage
Jan 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ An Izvestia source notes that the Russian MoD is considering forming a Su-25 unit that will be permanently based in the Western Military District, which currently has no permanent Su-25 frontline units (nearest such units are based in the Southern MD).
iz.ru/1453664/roman-… 2/ If true, this consideration is presumably driven by heightened tensions with the West following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and by combat experiences in Ukraine; Su-25s have been used extensively in the war and are likely precieved as an indispensable asset.
Dec 28, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) reports that it handed over another batch of Su-57 multirole fighters to the Russian MoD. Formally, this is the second batch of Su-57s delivered to the Russian MoD (VKS) in 2022.
vk.com/uac_rus?z=vide… ImageImageImageImage 2/ The first batch of Su-57s handed over this year is known to have included two fighters (both of them can be seen in this photo by NSK Planes from late May).
Image
Dec 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/ "Five North Korean drones intruded across the inter-Korean border with one of them having flown over northern Seoul on Monday, officials here said, prompting South Korea to send its own unmanned vehicles into the North in a
'corresponding' step."

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202212… 2/ "[This] marks the first such intrusion in five years.

One of [the UAVs] flew all the way to the northern part of Seoul, while the rest hovered in and around Ganghwa Island, west of the capital, the JCS said."
Nov 30, 2022 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Another joint Sino-Russian bomber patrol. Video released by the Russian MoD only shows Russian aircraft (Tu-95MS bombers and their Su-35S and Su-30SM escorts). 2/ South Korea confirms that "[t]wo Chinese and six Russian warplanes entered [its] air defense identification zone (KADIZ) without notice Wednesday, prompting the Air Force to scramble fighters."
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202211…
Nov 15, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
1/In a new Russian MoD clip a Su-35S pilot discusses how VKS fighters conduct patrols at high levels in a risk-averse manner, relying on superior FCR systems & AAMs to engage Ukr aircraft from standoff ranges that allow them to remain outside the engagement zones of Ukr SAMs.🧵👇 Image 2/ The pilot - Zveno (Flight) Commander "Klim" - describes an encounter involving VKS Su-35Ss (including himself) and three Ukrainian aircraft:

"From the other side, there was a pair of Su-25s and one MiG-29. [We] detected them at a distance of 200 km. Tracked, waited for...
Nov 7, 2022 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
1/Very good & insightful @RUSI_org report by @Justin_Br0nk,@Jack_Watling & Nick Reynolds.
I want to very briefly add a few points as to why Russian counterair patrols have had limited success neutralizing Ukrainian SAM systems using ARMs.
A short thread👇
rusi.org/explore-our-re… 2/ Since the beginning of the war, VKS Su-35S and Su-30SM fighters have been carrying out counterair patrols, typically armed with four or more air-to-air missiles (AAMs) and 1-2 Kh-31P-series anti-radiation missiles (ARMs). The latter are designed to home in on radiating radars. Image
Nov 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ A still from a recent Russian MoD clip on VKS ops against Ukraine that shows a Su-34 equipped with L265VI & L265VP ECM pods on the port & starboard wingtip, respectively, and a single Kh-31P-series ARM (likely a Kh-31PK). This appears to be a very typical Su-34 "SEAD loadout." Image 2/ In some cases (see insert), Su-34 "ARM shooters" also carry a large, centerline ECM pod (L175VU-1/L175VU-2/L175VSh-1).
Nov 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ "[ROKAF] F-15K & KF-16 jets fired [3] precision-guided missiles into waters north of the [Northern Limit Line] in the East Sea, hours after North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile southward across the NLL, [said] the Joint Chiefs of Staff."
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202211… 2/ "Earlier in the day, the North fired various types of about 10 missiles, including three short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), off its west and east coasts."
Nov 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
An image from a new Russian MoD clip about VKS fighter ooperations against Ukraine. Note what appears to be a R-37M long-range AAM between the inlets of this Su-35S. Relatedly, the interviewed pilot claims to have shot down an "enemy aircraft" using a "long-range AAM." Apart from the R-37M, the Su-35S is also seen armed with a pair of R-77-1 medium-range AAMs (one under each inlet station), and a single Kh-31P-series anti-radiation missile (likely a Kh-31PM) under the inboard port wing station.
Oct 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ "511" Blue is the bort number that is known to be assigned to test aircraft T-50-11. 2/ More on the "modernized Su-57" here. 👇