IMPORTANT UPDATE: The info on the rules for fixes may be changing... 1. The new 'price guarantee' will effectively work as a discount of unit rates of the pre-planned 1 Oct price cap rate. 2. I'm now hearing this per £ discount will apply to all tariffs, including fixes.
CONTD
3. So, many fixes that currently look costlier than price guarantee will end up cheaper. 4. Plus there may be an info reversal on the 'all can get out of a fixed tariff without exit penalties' which govt told me earlier. It may be up to firms.
Be careful til I get confirmation
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I'm sorry to post about energy right now, but this is important update, and may impact choices people are making right now. This is specifically about those on fixed tariffs.
The info on the rules for fixes may be changing...
CONTINUED.....
1. The new 'price guarantee' will effectively work as a discount of the unit rates of the pre-planned 1 October price cap rate. 2. I'm now hearing this per pound discount will also apply to all tariffs, including fixes.
IMPORTANT KEEP READING...
3. So, many fixes that currently look costliest than price guarantee will end up cheaper. 4. Plus there may be an info reversal on the 'all can get out of a fixed tariff without exit penalties' which govt told me earlier. It may be up to firms.
ENERGY: Is the Liz Truss administration going to freeze prices at the current level? If so what does it mean for those on the price cap and on fixes, and is it any good.
Here's my rough provisional analysis of what may be coming...
PS the delete and repost was just to make the font size of the doc bigger.
An update already - its now being said the cap will be at a £2,500 for typical rate, but the £400 reduction will still be paid. Clearly none of this is confirmed.
In May govt announced decent help based on predicted 42% rise in the Oct to Apr energy price cap (that'd take a typical bill to £2,800)
Now the rise for that period's likely to be 126% (£4,460 for a typical bill)
Pls read why & my plea to the new PM
Cont/d
1. In May the govt announced an up to £1,200 for vulnerable homes (£400 for all homes) package of energy help, based on a predicted 42% rise in the energy price cap in October (taking a typical bill to £2,800).
2. Crucially this was to cover the 6mthly Oct to Apr cap
cont/d
3. Ofgem then changed the rules so price caps'd only be 3mths long (to protect energy retailers cash flows to stop em going bust - we objected in our consultation response)
4. The actual 1 Oct rise is now crystallised at 80%, taking typical direct debit bill to £3,549/yr
The latest @CornwallInsight prediction, based on Ofgem's new methodology, is an 81% price cap rise in Oct (taking typical bill to £3,582/yr) and a further 19% in Jan (so £4,266/yr)
Action & planning is needed now. The zombie govt needs wake up sooner than 5 Sept...
These amounts are unaffordable for millions. The Jan figure equates to 45% of the full new state pension, and a higher proportion of the old one.
The rise alone on the Jan prediction, from when the help was first announced in May, is roughly £1,400/yr...
That rise alone swallows up not just £400 help for all homes,but even the £1,200 for the poorest
This will leave many destitute. Tax cuts won't help poorest incl many elderly & disabled who've higher usage
Cutting green levy'd be just tiny sticking plaster on a gaping wound...
NEWS:
I feel sick writing this!
I've just got the latest price cap predictions from @CornwallInsight. A huge spike in the key year-ahead wholesale price means
OCT cap prediction UP 64% (so £3,244/yr on typical bills)
JAN cap prediction UP 4% (so £3,363/yr)
/contd
It's horrendous. Especially as we're now near the end of the assessment period that sets Oct's cap, so this is the right ball park.
The Oct prediction is now £450/yr HIGHER than Ofgem mooted in May & that was what Sunak based the £400-£1,200/yr help on.
More will be needed!
Please share - people need to know what's coming to see if they can prepare for it.
I'd like to formally apologise to the @ofgem staff for losing my rag in a background briefing just now and saying its changes are a "fucking disgrace that sells consumers down the river".
I should've behaved better. My ire's institutional not individual, its was inappropriate...
I lost it when getting a briefing about today's proposals, where it feels like at every turn, in these desperate times where lives are at risk, it has ignored all asks for consumers and instead kowtowed to the industry (I hope history proves me wrong)...
My breaking point was when hearing how instead of listening to calls to scrap its proposed market stabilization charge, it was making it harsher to really 'stop the harmful effects of competition'
Ie staggeringly its aim's to effectively STOP firms undercutting the price cap...