IMPORTANT (pls share)

On Mon the new Ofgem Apr-Jul Energy Price Cap's announced. Yet in practice it's likely to be not hugely impactful as currently

- It's GOVT THAT SETS ENERGY PRICES
- And GOVT plans to INCREASE EM 20% in Apr (I'm campaigning for it not to)

Let me explain.. (2/7) The energy price cap (Cap) is set by Ofgem based on wholesale rates - those energy retailers pay.

Until Oct 2022 solely it dictated the max standing charge & unit rates firms could levy. And as in recent times all firms charge near-enough the max, it set the price we paid.

Thanks to @Jeremy_Hunt for today's mortgage summit with lenders. A decent meet on putting best practice flexibility & forbearance measures in place for spring. They'll put a few announcements out today but I hope there will be more to come once things are worked through... Lenders and the FCA seemed open to suggestions.

Thanks from me to all the mortgage brokers, @CitizensAdvice, @WhichUK who fed in suggestions and research to my team in our pre planning.

Please share (1/5)
Tomorrow the Jan - April energy price cap is announced. I've had fellow journos asking me about the huge bill increases predicted. So to stave off any misreporting, let me be plain

THE JAN ENERGY PRICE CAP IS ALMOST TOTALLY MEANINGLESS FOR CONSUMERS. Now to explain in seven points...

1) Since Oct household bills've been dictated by the Energy Price Guarantee, the Price Cap which mattered before is now mostly irrelevant

2) The Guarantee is set by the govt eg for a home on typical use its £2,500 now, rising to £3,000 Apr 23

Wow I'm nearing 2m followers. So to say THANK YOU & promote small charities, I'll again donate
-£500 to charity picked by my 2000000th follower
-£500 to charity of randomly picked existing follower who replies
So pls reply with a charity, noting if ur new or already follow (1/2) (2/2) Mini t&cs
-Charity must have a UK charity number
-Its hard to exactly spot follower 2m. I'll do m'best but my pick (even if inaccurate) is final.
-If 2millionth doesn't name charity, I'll pick nearest who does.
-'Randomly picked' means Ill scroll thru eyes closed & point

NEWS: The projected new energy price cap, that will start in April when the price guarantee ends, will be:

UP 73% taking a bill for typical use (use more pay more use less pay less) from £2,500/yr to £4,350

The cap will then be DOWN 15% in July to £3,700/yr typical use.
cont/d Then it is predicted to stabilise around that level.

However these are very early day predictions (thanks to @CornwallInsight for getting them to us so quickly), we are not even in the April cap assessment period (17/11 to 17/2) yet, so could change a lot

cont/d

Its arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points

1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised 2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.

3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme

This is nonsense. To make that stamp duty saving you'd need to be buying a £500,000+ property.

With 10% deposit, cheapest fix mortgage would cost £2,400/mth (£28,000/yr). How can someone on £30k afford that

I am asking treasury to remove.

https://twitter.com/hmtreasury/status/1575493522265759744

Ps of course they'd never get the mortgage in the first place

CONFIRMED: From @beisgovuk (attached) that as I said before those on fixed tariffs will see a reduction of 17p/Kwh for elec 4.2p for gas.

1) If their rate is higher than price guarantee
2) But it'll only drop at most to the level of the price guarantee

contd So to be clear
- Cheap fix: (eg, 2yr fix from before crisis started). If you'll pay less than the new price guarantee, there's no reduction.

- Mid-level fix: (eg, fixed 3-9mths ago at a premium). If fix is higher than new price guarantee, it reduces to the same level as it.
cont

(1/3) IMPORTANT NEWS FOR THOSE ON ENERGY FIXES
All fixes that are more expensive than the new price guarantee rate will see an automatic reduction in Oct (but they will at most only reduce to the level of the new guarantee)

So for now DO NOTHING... (2/3) In the energy summit I had today BG, Shell, Eon, EDF, Ovo (SSE), Octopus CEOs agreed to my ask that the few (maybe 1%) whose fixes still cost over the price guarantee after that, CAN move onto the guarantee with no exit penalties, til at least 15 Nov (some beyond)

CONTD

1/3
NEWS: The new 1 Oct price guarantee average direct debit rates have been announced

Electricity
Unit rate: 34.00p per kWh
Standing charge: 46.36p per day.

Gas 
Unit rate: 10.30p per kWh.
Standing charge: 28.49p per day

Pls share 2/3 This is just an average, rates are set by region.

They will also likely be a few % higher for those who pay by direct debit or on receipt of bills

We're trying to get the details & when we do I'll tweet & we'll put them in our calc which u can use to see your actual change

I'm sorry to post about energy right now, but this is important update, and may impact choices people are making right now. This is specifically about those on fixed tariffs.

The info on the rules for fixes may be changing...
CONTINUED..... 1. The new 'price guarantee' will effectively work as a discount of the unit rates of the pre-planned 1 October price cap rate.
2. I'm now hearing this per pound discount will also apply to all tariffs, including fixes.
IMPORTANT KEEP READING...

New energy price guarantee - 15 quick need to knows for CONSUMERS. Please feel free to share...

#energybills #priceguarantee Sorry spotted i'd an error so reposted

ENERGY: Is the Liz Truss administration going to freeze prices at the current level? If so what does it mean for those on the price cap and on fixes, and is it any good.

Here's my rough provisional analysis of what may be coming... PS the delete and repost was just to make the font size of the doc bigger.

IMPORTANT
Pls share

In May govt announced decent help based on predicted 42% rise in the Oct to Apr energy price cap (that'd take a typical bill to £2,800)

Now the rise for that period's likely to be 126% (£4,460 for a typical bill)

Pls read why & my plea to the new PM

Cont/d 1. In May the govt announced an up to £1,200 for vulnerable homes (£400 for all homes) package of energy help, based on a predicted 42% rise in the energy price cap in October (taking a typical bill to £2,800).

2. Crucially this was to cover the 6mthly Oct to Apr cap

cont/d

Tragic news

The latest @CornwallInsight prediction, based on Ofgem's new methodology, is an 81% price cap rise in Oct (taking typical bill to £3,582/yr) and a further 19% in Jan (so £4,266/yr)

Action & planning is needed now. The zombie govt needs wake up sooner than 5 Sept... These amounts are unaffordable for millions. The Jan figure equates to 45% of the full new state pension, and a higher proportion of the old one.

The rise alone on the Jan prediction, from when the help was first announced in May, is roughly £1,400/yr...

NEWS:
I feel sick writing this!
I've just got the latest price cap predictions from @CornwallInsight. A huge spike in the key year-ahead wholesale price means

OCT cap prediction UP 64% (so £3,244/yr on typical bills)
JAN cap prediction UP 4% (so £3,363/yr)

/contd It's horrendous. Especially as we're now near the end of the assessment period that sets Oct's cap, so this is the right ball park.

The Oct prediction is now £450/yr HIGHER than Ofgem mooted in May & that was what Sunak based the £400-£1,200/yr help on.

More will be needed!

I'd like to formally apologise to the @ofgem staff for losing my rag in a background briefing just now and saying its changes are a "fucking disgrace that sells consumers down the river".

I should've behaved better. My ire's institutional not individual, its was inappropriate... I lost it when getting a briefing about today's proposals, where it feels like at every turn, in these desperate times where lives are at risk, it has ignored all asks for consumers and instead kowtowed to the industry (I hope history proves me wrong)...