on the US open, 1530 Cet, volumes traded on #es_f and #nq_f were monster : 97.6%ile for ES and 99.6 for NQ (over 5 years interval!).
This selling climax triggered a short squeeze: few minutes later another big volume spike marked a short capitulation. ES then rallied to ...
1/
..4010, top of the trading range 3900-4015.
first comments: 1. buyers are now aggressively using selling activity to increase long not only on the bottom (3900) but at mid range too (3945) 2. 4015 is next resistance : it shd be passed soon to confirm this buying strength
2/
3. 3965 and especially 3945 must hold on any pullback. Buyers must defend these levels where they initiated this violent upside attack. 4. If these are broken to the downside, it means that 3900 will soon crash, with target 3780/3800.
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Some thoughts on joint EU bonds to fund defence/energy.
This initiative reminds me july2012 "whatever it takes" and Draghi's words abt the political will supporting EU in the midst of sovereign crisis.
Like in 2012,the issue EU is facing now hasnt just an economic nature.
1/n
2/n the issue is EXISTENTIAL !
The dependence from Russia gas has been tolerated for economic convenience for 25 years.
Now The Russia/China bloc is questioning EU safety on two fronts: military and energy (see today's Putin blackmailing on gas supply).
3/n This is not acceptable for the EU existence.
I m sure these themes will be stressed in Versailles statements and will constitute the base for a U-turn in EU policies: "whatever it takes" (and in peace) EU survival must be granted.
Macron Merkel proposal :
- the EU budget issues 500bn 25yrs bonds (negative rates surely)
- gives them to States as transfer
- States pay them back yearly beyond actual MFF.
if Italy and Spain are the most affected (and will receive a larger slice), which country will have to become a heavy net contributor in the reimbursement of the loans?
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this is page 3 of the official document.
I highlighted some thoughtful sentences, esp. the reference to "sound economic policies and ambitious reform agenda"
Is there a conditionality therefore for these budget transfers?