There are many ways to know that u're not betting against the house (smart money). The simplest one is to use common sense. Example if a low float trash stock gaps up 100% on BS news, with no pullback, & a ton of buying volume comes in at the very TOP, who do u think is buying?
You think the smartest people in the market see a piece of shit stock literally one foot away from getting delisted gap up 100% on crap news and think "yeah this is a great buy. Dear broker, fill me in at the very top please" ?
Or let's use large caps / options as an example. Do u think the smartest money in the market see a LC stock that's been selling off for multiple days in a row out of pure irrational and think "yeah, that's a great place to start shorting or exit my long position" ?
In short, the big money are contrarians. They buy when everyone is panic selling. And they short or sell when everyone is FOMO buying. And it's not because they WANT to be, it's because they HAVE to be. You don't fill a whale size position in 1 minute. The slippage will kill u
If you're a multi billionaire or centimillionaire, the only way you'll fill a MASSIVE position with minimum slippage is if enough idiots are simultaneously chasing the offer or bid. And this only happens at emotional extremes (top of squeezes or bottom of panic selloffs)
Conclusion: look for emotional extremes. Look for panic selloffs with massive volume (the 🏠 is on the other side buying stock or shorting puts), or FOMO squeezes with massive volume (the 🏠 is on the other side shorting the stock or selling calls)
😂You mischievous little cunts!! A bud sent me this and I damn near spit out my quinoa smoothie. No I didn't blow up, oh ye of little faith. You need an IQ of 13 and fetal exposure to spoiled shrooms to blow up doing credit spreads.
Im in the middle of a 3 month $TWTR break that's supposed to end in september (football season). We were at the half year mark (june) and I already hit 50% completion of 2022 trading goals, but was way, WAY behind on 2022 family (vacations & travels), fitness, and business goals.
And by Sept I need to be at least 75% done with all 2022 goals before 🏈season starts, so that I can relax & turn on cruise control into year end. And each time im behind on goals I just temporarily cut out all low ROI activities, and tweeting to u fuckers is definitely 1 of em
1/2 My hopes for the overall market $SPY going into next wk
I want to short puts again (bullish play), because some reversal factors have lined up, EXCEPT for the most important one.... retail has not aggressively bought puts yet going into next week (they're not scared enough)
2/2 And as a contrarian, I have to be patient and wait for dumb money to position themselves first. So I'm sitting on the sidelines hoping that we get a massive selloff (or gap down) to break retail's confidence, instigate a panic, & force them to buy puts at inflated premiums
when they do, the ADF shop will be there to sell them all the goddamn puts they want lol.
if we bounce instead in the next few days (without a panic selloff 1st), then i'll just miss the bounce play & just wait for the next setup (long or short). Patience grasshopper, patience.
Also fun fact, world news mean nothing. The market is manipulated by billionaire option sellers. They plan their moves (long or short) weeks in advance, then they just use whatever trending news to justify the move, hide their footprints, or trigger the final selling or squeeze.
why do you think bad news seems to ALWAYS happen when the market is already in a heavy downtrend? or why good news seems to always happen when stocks are already uptrending? when they're short MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to panic sell so they can cover.
when they're long MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to FOMO buy so they can take profits into ur buy orders (aka "sell the news"). And when u're a multibillionaire, who do u think u play golf with? joe smuck who works at target? or world politicians & owners of news outlets?
1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
That's why a lot of times, when a move goes directly in my favor without a pullback or bounce, you see me tweet/complain "fuck, I was only on starter size" or "fuck, I didn't get to add the rest" etc. I ALWAYS break up my orders & drop Mjolnir only when EVERYTHING lines up
2) I never EVER sell naked. Im always doing spreads (or buying naked), this way my max loss is ALWAYS fixed. And if u know me then u know that the moment I take on a trade I already expect the trade to fail. in short, I mentally take the loss before it even happens
To be frank with u, I have no clue nor do I care. This is not the account to follow if u're looking for long term predictions or what might happen next month or next year etc. Anyone who tries to predict the market long term is either full of shit or full of vague BS statements
For every 1 "pReDiCtiOn" that comes true there is another 5 that failed. So we can sit here & talk advanced fundamentals and stats all day long, trust me, I can go full nerd mode when it comes to that, and i have spreadsheets GALORE. But NONE of that matters when u trade momentum
The ONLY thing I can "predict" with a high degree of accuracy is that dumb emotional money almost always loses in the end, and that smart money (the house) almost always wins in the end. So what do i do? I just bet against dumb money. Simple as that.
9 year old daughter came pretty close on her super bowl prediction. Final score 23-20 versus her 24-18 prediction. I might have her start doing my stock data analysis from now on 😂