Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 8, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Russian occupation officials say Russian units recently arrived from within the Russian Federation are now defending #Kupiansk, Ukraine from the approaching AFU counteroffensive👇

1/8
I've just retweeted posts claiming local Ukrainians in #Kupiansk are reporting intense artillery fire in/near the city.

2/8
It is unclear to me whose heavy artillery fire is being reported.

My gut says locals are hearing both sides artillery impacting.

3/8
The one thing that is clear to me is #Kupiansk time as a supply hub for Izyum is over. It is well and truly both in range & under Ukrainian artillery fire.

That means no Russian truck convoys will go through #Kupiansk to Izyum for the foreseeable future.
4/8
Russia has the time to evacuate most of its troops and vehicles, but none of the deep stocks of fuel and ammo in Izyum.

However, It has to start now, now now, to achieve even that.

The longer it delays, the more men & material it will lose in this Ukrainian Kesselschlacht**
5/8
** Kesselschlacht is a german word that means "Kettle Battle" in English.

Any Russian delay gives Ukrainian artillery now near #Kupiansk the time to destroy Russian evacuation bridges & ferries.

6/8
The slower the Russian High Command is in withdrawing from the Izyum salient.

The larger the number of Russian, LDR & DNR troops will get "cooked in the kettle."

We don't have long to wait for this Kesselschlacht to boil over.
7/8
It is getting close to kettle popcorn time.

8/8 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 23
I can't begin to tell you how scary/spooky reading this @AndrewPerpetua post is a historian of WW2 Pacific combat.

His list is literally the WW2 Imperial Japanese adaptation to US air & artillery firepower.

1/
Compare the photo clip to this:

"1: Digging deep. At least 2 meters, minimum. If not 3 or 4. The problem becomes the slope of the trench. It is better to dig into a hill if possible to reduce the slope."

2/ Image
Compare IJA Okinawa cave cover text & mortar position photo clips to this observation:

"2: Overhead cover. You must protect yourself against drones at a minimum. Protecting against artillery is likely impractical, but where possible it should be done."

3/

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Read 12 tweets
Jun 22
As the end of this video details, the "Birds of Magyar" had a radio repeater drone right on top of that RuAF Drone unit occupied the building in order to be able to inspect its insides with an FPV drone.

A drone war organizational change🧵
1/2
It looks like the "Birds of Magyar" repeater drone was also relaying Russian drone analog video back to its drone operators.

The seamless integration of SIGINT within drone unit ops, without reference to any other organization, or higher command, is not Western practice with drones.

2/
In the US Army, SIGINT & Jamming belong to one Military Intelligence.

Drones belong, based on size, too the following:
1. The Division aviation brigade (Group 4 - MQ-1C Grey Eagle)
2. The Brigade combat team (Group 3 - RQ-7 Shadow) and,
3. Battalion & below (Group 1 - RQ-11B Raven)

3/Image
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Read 18 tweets
Jun 22
Gosh,

Remember all the X accounts claiming these turtle tanks were the answer to Ukrainian FPV drones and a sign of Russian strength?

Not so much.⬇️

They are, in fact, a "flaming datum" of Russian military-industrial weakness.

A Lanchester Smiles🧵
A turtle tank is an obsolete tank without both traverse & elevation gear & a gun loader (perhaps w/o even a beach?) turned into a scrap steel MT-LB personnel carrier with a very low powered drone jammer on top.

2/
There are other, very vital, things missing from this T-62.

The copper cables for the tank intercom have been stripped while it was in storage, before refurbishment, and have not been replaced.

The TC can't talk to the driver!😱

The explosive from the ERA is missing.
3/
Read 14 tweets
Jun 20
The problem the Russians have in the small drone category is their centralized procurement model.

That model can make a lot of any one design.

It is forever behind the observe orient decide act (OODA) loop in terms of innovation

AFU Procurement model🧵
1/
...compared to Ukraine's decentralized/competitive procurement model of drone procurement.

Ukraine is perfectly willing to ignore "Not invented here" to get something right now like this:

2/
A Lithuanian design for Ukraine right now in any numbers beats the politically perfect for the centralized procurement pubahs we see in Russia...

...or the USA or that matter. Which doesn't make much of that one perfect design.

3/

Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
This is Ukrainian FPV drone air superiority...arriving.

It is also represents the complete technological obsolescence of the USMC/US Army C-UAS, M-LIDS & M-SHORAD programs.

1/
Assuming an FPV interceptor is a $1000 a shot because of improved kinematic performance & specialized light weight fragmentation warhead.

Everything you see in photographs below is obsolete from a cost effectiveness perspective.

2/
FPV drones are "disintermediated" from any ground or vehicular infrastructure.

Any flat piece of ground or even a human hand to launch them will do.

3/
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Read 9 tweets
Jun 19
I'm beginning to think a Baba Yaga or some other compound helicopter mothership drone is taking Ukrainian FPV's to altitude for the interceptor role.

FPV's have a limited battery charge.

If they go to 5K or 10K feet height, they can't have much range at intercept altitude.

1/
FPV's berthed under the wing of something like AeroVironment’s JUMP 20 that has a 14 hour endurance and an FPV repeater can "delouse" Ukrainian rear areas of Russian Orlan-10/Zala ISR drones.

2/
Starting at the same or higher altitudes as a Russian Orlan-10/Zala.

These Ukrainian compound helicopter-sailplane mothership drone launched FPV interceptors would have a lot more range than any ground launched FPV.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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