Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 8, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Russian occupation officials say Russian units recently arrived from within the Russian Federation are now defending #Kupiansk, Ukraine from the approaching AFU counteroffensive👇

1/8
I've just retweeted posts claiming local Ukrainians in #Kupiansk are reporting intense artillery fire in/near the city.

2/8
It is unclear to me whose heavy artillery fire is being reported.

My gut says locals are hearing both sides artillery impacting.

3/8
The one thing that is clear to me is #Kupiansk time as a supply hub for Izyum is over. It is well and truly both in range & under Ukrainian artillery fire.

That means no Russian truck convoys will go through #Kupiansk to Izyum for the foreseeable future.
4/8
Russia has the time to evacuate most of its troops and vehicles, but none of the deep stocks of fuel and ammo in Izyum.

However, It has to start now, now now, to achieve even that.

The longer it delays, the more men & material it will lose in this Ukrainian Kesselschlacht**
5/8
** Kesselschlacht is a german word that means "Kettle Battle" in English.

Any Russian delay gives Ukrainian artillery now near #Kupiansk the time to destroy Russian evacuation bridges & ferries.

6/8
The slower the Russian High Command is in withdrawing from the Izyum salient.

The larger the number of Russian, LDR & DNR troops will get "cooked in the kettle."

We don't have long to wait for this Kesselschlacht to boil over.
7/8
It is getting close to kettle popcorn time.

8/8 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 17
This is a thread of Russian motoblock "Forward Edge Conveyors" (TPC) _MEETING THE DRONE_.

The Russians have been using these TPC for most of the Russo-Ukrainian War.


1/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 16
What you are seeing in this @wartranslated video clip at ~21 sec mark is a vehicle called a "Forward Edge Conveyor."

It is a key RuAF logistical vehicle in both front line ammo distribution and in casevac throughout the war.

Critical but ignored RuAF Logistics🧵
1/
The link & picture comes from a 30 Apr 2023 Russian article that describes the role of a "Forward Edge Conveyor" [initialed TPC per Google translate] and the article advocated for a new TCP, replacing the one pictured below, ASAP.

2/
topwar.ru/215842-armii-n…
Image
The pictured vehicle was Wagner & Russia's chief casualty evacuation vehicle at Bakhmut.

It is used to pull forward ammo for assault groups and move back wounded because cars are not survivable near trenches.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 15
RuAF has a battalion in a Ukrainian Cauldron at Vovchansk.

It's destruction/surrender will be the biggest mass unit elimination since the Ukrainian garrison at Azovstal in Mariupol was eliminated in 2022.

And Ukrainian FPV's are responsible.

FPV Air Superiority🧵

1/
This "Vovchansk Cauldron" is a testament to the increasing margins of AFU battlefield small drone air superiority.

Something which @sambendett goes into some detail translating the Russian fears of Ukrainian FPV superiority here:

2/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
This post ⬇️was a very good answer to a Wash Post hit piece on Ukraine for it's ratio of combat to logistical troops, or "tooth to tail" ratio (T3R).

But no one has ever asked:
What is the Russian T3R in Ukraine supporting its 500k to 800k troops?

1/
Western intel T3R incompetence🧵
The photo text passage on current Russian T3R is from:

"Lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict: the primacy of logistics over strategy"


Ronald Ti & Christopher Kinsey
Pages 381-398 |
Received 29 Oct 2022,
Accepted 17 Jul 2023,
Published online: 21 Jul 2023
2/tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…Image
Given 6/7 of 500,000 as RuAF "Teeth" and a 2,000km front, it works out to ~214 Russians per kilometer. And a lot of that front is along the Dnipro River.

We haven't seen that Russian force density on Ukrainian front line Drone videos.
3/
Read 29 tweets
Jun 12
Translated from Ukrainian:

"The enemy publishes a video of a missile attack on the Myrhorod airfield. The reconnaissance was carried out by a Russian UAV. The distance from the nearest positions of the Russians is 150 km.

The problem is complex.
1/
On the one hand, there is a shortage of air defense equipment.

On the other hand, the higher command is now massively transferring both airfield service personnel and those who could cover the airfields to the infantry.

2/
I think that over time these geniuses will begin to be sent to the infantry and pilots. Maybe already. Why do we need that aviation?"

My comment:
There are reasons why criticism of military command decisions in war are necessary.

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
So, the Russians are removing their naval mobile units with only barge fixed fortifications?

That isn't how a competent harbor defense doctrine works.

1/
Such military doctrine requires you to possess a harbor control center, fixed and mobile sensor platforms, shore activated sea mines plus armed patrol craft to prosecute datums the sensors generate.

Anyone can look this stuff up.


2/cdsg.org/research-and-r…
Such are the wonders of watching "Russian exceptionalism" at work from a great distance.😈

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets

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