Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Is Russia now so short of manpower that it simply can't defend strategically vital areas near Kharkiv? A fascinating spot by @ItsArtoir (go follow him!) suggests this might be the case, and suggests some major discontent in the Russian army. A short 🧵 follows.

2/ The Russian Telegram channel Zа (V)Побѣду ("To (V) Victory") has published part of an apparent Russian army operational map and a damning account of how a redeployment to Kherson stripped a strategic area of defenders. Translation of two consecutive posts follows.

3/ "To help you understand how it came about that the Ukrainians dared to make such an audacious move in Kharkiv [oblast], I will explain with a very clear example.

There is a forest in the vicinity of Dolgenkoye [Dovhen'ke] - the "elephant", as it is conventionally referred to.

4/ Before the redeployment this elephant was held by the 36th [Motorised Rifle] Brigade, which is part of the 29th [Combined Arms] Army. The eastern grouping was removed from the north [i.e. Kyiv/Chernihiv] and redeployed to the south. The 36th Brigade, too, accordingly.

5/ They leave the "elephant" and are replaced by... the Ukrainians. Without a fight, quietly. Why did this happen? Because there is no one to replace them. And this is only one [such] forest. There were more such positions and settlements.

6/ This is already at least a bold indirect sign for the analysts at the headquarters of the Khokhols that the Western grouping has big problems with human resources. Even without objective intelligence, it is possible to decide on an adventure with a high probability of success.

7/ [Subsequent post describing the leaked map:]

(Don't ask me where I got the staff card)

The "elephant" is circled in black. On the left, as you can see, is the strategically important village of Dolgenkoye.

8/ The left side of the map is the "elephant", which was strategically important in that area, Dolgenkoye.

9/ [Here is the same area from a Google satellite image.]

10/ [Original post and its predecessor linked below:] t.me/Za_Derjavy/207…

11/ The point about the redeployment to Kherson stripping Russia's forces in the north-east is obvious, so I won't rehash that. But the leak of an apparent operational map (I assume it's that, as presumably sensitive information is blanked out in the image) is really interesting.

11/ It suggests to me that the local command staff are *really* pissed off with the situation and want to draw public attention to the failings they perceive in the Russian high command. The aim being presumably to goad political leaders into replacing incompetent generals. /end

Additional thought: I suspect that the worse it gets for Russia, the more leaks of this kind we'll see in future.

"The elephant" ⬇️