The colossal cascading collapse of the Russian army continues with breathtaking speed. Maps are often out-of-date as soon as they are posted. Russian positions across Kharkiv and northern Donetsk are folding as Russian troops retreat and surrender. Izium is expected to fall.
The Russian military is throwing all the resources it can muster into the Kharkiv theater of operations to stop Ukraine's offensive, but Russian troops are disorganized and unprepared. Even pro-Russian sources are horrified by how paralyzed the Russian command appears to be.
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By cutting military aid to Ukraine, Trump has cut the leash that kept Ukraine from launching far more aggressive strikes inside Russia. He gave up leverage over Russia immediately, and now he's surrendered his leverage over Ukraine as well. 1/7
Trump could never get a "deal" because neither he nor those he listens to understand Russia or Ukraine. He promised "peace" by trying to force Ukraine to capitulate, but instead he has ensured that there will be far more war for far longer. 2/7
Trump is trying to save face by scapegoating the victim of Russian aggression, which had received US security assurances in the 1990s. By doing so, he's voluntarily surrendering America's global influence—an unforced error with grave consequences. 3/7
Extorting Ukraine for its natural resources that dwarf any aid that the US has ever provided or could ever provide by threatening to turn off Starlink access is an expected and cruel development, which Ukraine has been preparing for. 1/9
Starlink is perhaps the most significant American tech used by Ukraine. It is the backbone of command and control systems and especially drone warfare. The strategic significance of the weapons America has provided pale in comparison to Starlink. 2/9
America has simply never provided sufficient quantities of any weapons systems for them to have the same kind of impact that Starlink has had. There are tens of thousands of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and that number is growing. 3/9
Assad's regime has fallen, with Russian forces scrambling like rats from a sinking ship, like they did during Wagner's march on Moscow. As always, the West stands slack-jawed and impotent on the sidelines, while Putin gets another reminder of the fragility of absolute power. 1/15
Putin put on a successful decade-long and extremely bloody theatrical production in which he played the role of Assad's protector and humiliator of cowardly and delusionally naive Western leaders like Obama, who ended up tacit accomplices to Russian crimes around the world. 2/15
While Obama led the West "from behind," sacrificing the credibility of America's promises or power projection to appease Moscow, Putin took advantage of the power vacuum to present himself as a reliable ally to anti-Western forces. 3/15
Before 2022, Russia's troubles in Georgia and Syria would have seemed potentially disastrous for Putin. Now, they're dwarfed by Russia's war against Ukraine—a war that will forever define the Putin regime and the future of Russia itself. 1/8
Russia is undoubtedly looking for ways to back pro-Kremlin proxies in Georgia and to bolster Assad in Syria, but there's only so much it can do when it's running the meat grinder for its own forces at full power in Ukraine. 2/8
In Georgia, Russia can deploy some FSB special forces and "titushky" (mercenary street thugs), repeating the tactics it used against Ukraine in 2014. In Syria, it would need to deploy a significant number of troops and air power, which is far more difficult now. 3/8
Ukraine's air force has confirmed that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missiles, hitting Dnipro. This is the first use of an ICBM in combat and was clearly intended to intimidate the West as part of Russia's extremely successful narrative-shaping campaign. 1/9
Given all the earlier chatter of an impending Russian ICBM attack, it may have been coordinated with the West. An ICBM launch can trigger a response from nuclear-armed states, and Russia may have warned the West ahead of an attack, as it has done prior to ICBM test launches. 2/9
ICBMs are essentially space vehicles, making them extremely large, expensive, difficult to manufacture, and Russian ICBMs are also inaccurate, which is part of the reason that it doesn't make sense to use them with non-nuclear warheads, as Russia has now done. 3/9
A credible Western "escalation" against Russia would give Putin the off-ramp that the "escalation managers" and peacemongers insist he needs—ironically, it’s the only path to achieving the very outcome they claim to pursue. 1/12
For Putin, losing to Ukraine is an unforgivable humiliation, especially when he has far more resources and more reliable allies than Ukraine. The West's appeasement has given him every reason to continue. 2/12
Watching and reading Russian propaganda, one sees how humiliating losing to Ukraine is. Whenever, Ukrainians succeed—for example, by shooting down Russian jets—Russia usually blames malfunctions or human error. 3/12