Ukraine Reporter Profile picture
Sep 9, 2022 2 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The colossal cascading collapse of the Russian army continues with breathtaking speed. Maps are often out-of-date as soon as they are posted. Russian positions across Kharkiv and northern Donetsk are folding as Russian troops retreat and surrender. Izium is expected to fall.
The Russian military is throwing all the resources it can muster into the Kharkiv theater of operations to stop Ukraine's offensive, but Russian troops are disorganized and unprepared. Even pro-Russian sources are horrified by how paralyzed the Russian command appears to be.

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More from @StateOfUkraine

Jun 21, 2023
Instead of simply letting Ukraine attempt costly obstacle breaching operations in the south, Russia has chosen to also counterattack Ukrainian forces, which has slowed the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but forced Russia to deploy more reserves prematurely. 🧵
Russia's defense of the land it grabbed in the south was supposed to be relatively straightforward: Ukraine would hit Russian fortifications, lose men & equipment from mines & artillery strikes while Russian forces would benefit from smaller casualties as they would be defending.
Russia's defense seemed to work, as Ukraine lost scarce Western armor in the early days of its probing attacks, but then Ukraine liberated several towns, including Piatykhatky, which could lead to the liberation of Vasylivka, threatening Russian positions along the Dnipro.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 20, 2023
2 weeks after Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam, a WMD event, and the West has no response. Budanov says Russia mined the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. Feeding off Western weakness, Putin will be tempted to blow it up knowing he'll get away with it & keep the West trembling. Image
As the Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeds, Putin will resort to any means that can slow it down. His main tools are nuclear bluffing and deniability. He can scare the West by threatening to use nukes and instead blow up a nuclear power plant, while denying responsibility.
Putin is deathly afraid of being held responsible for anything except that which will make him appear great. He denied that he ordered the operation to seize Crimea until it had succeeded. His foes keep dying, but officially he never has anything to do with it.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Ukraine has launched what many, including Russia, believe to be its long-awaited counteroffensive. Combining information from a variety of sources with publicly available information, here are some important details to bear in mind as events unfold. 🧵
According to Russian/Soviet military doctrine, defenses are organized roughly as follows: Behind minefields and other other obstacles is the first echelon of defense, which is manned by the least capable soldiers who are lightly armed. They're the defensive cannon fodder.
The goal of the first echelon is to hold out as long as possible, exhausting the attacking side, which will then, in theory, be less able to face additional defensive echelons, which are held in reserve, often dozens of kilometers from the front lines.
Read 18 tweets
May 5, 2023
Prigozhin threatened to withdraw his Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut on May 10 because he alleges that the Russian military is depriving his forces of ammunition, sabotaging his attempts to capture the city. Much of what he says is political spin. Here's why: 🧵
Although there is a conflict between various factions in the Putin regime (something that Putin has always allowed as a way to prevent any one faction from becoming too powerful), there are few indications that Wagner is suffering from a severe ammunition shortage.
Ukrainian soldiers defending Bakhmut report that Wagner fighters continue storming the city with the support of intense Russian shelling and bombing, which is pulverizing city blocks. Russia has clearly prioritized Bakhmut and committed massive resources to capture it.
Read 9 tweets
May 4, 2023
A fire has erupted at the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, after a suspected drone strike. It is an important part of the fuel infrastructure in southern Russia and Russian-occupied southern Ukraine/Crimea.
This is one more in a series of suspected Ukrainian strikes in southern Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea that are likely shaping operations that will weaken Russia's ability to sustain its forces in southern Ukraine (which includes Crimea).
Long-range Ukrainian drone strikes are also meant to stretch Russian air defense systems, which, until recently, Russia has been able to concentrate almost entirely inside Ukraine (reconfiguring some of them, such as the S-300, to hit ground targets).
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22, 2023
Russian nationalists are circulating an in-depth analysis of the military crisis facing Russia. In short: Russian troops are unprepared, underequipped, poorly led and will be defeated unless Russian leaders change course, which they are unwilling to do. 🧵 kcpn.info/articles/%D0%B… Image
The analysis paints a bleak picture of the Russian army, especially it's inability to wage modern wars that require high levels of command and control as well as highly mobile units, not stormtroopers who are sent on suicidal missions by blockheaded Soviet-style generals.
The authors say that assaulting Bakhmut plays into Ukrainian hands and further weakens the Russian military, which is taking full advantage of Russia's incompetent military leadership. They say the same mistakes are repeated over and over, and lessons are not learned.
Read 5 tweets

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