By cutting military aid to Ukraine, Trump has cut the leash that kept Ukraine from launching far more aggressive strikes inside Russia. He gave up leverage over Russia immediately, and now he's surrendered his leverage over Ukraine as well. 1/7 Trump could never get a "deal" because neither he nor those he listens to understand Russia or Ukraine. He promised "peace" by trying to force Ukraine to capitulate, but instead he has ensured that there will be far more war for far longer. 2/7

Extorting Ukraine for its natural resources that dwarf any aid that the US has ever provided or could ever provide by threatening to turn off Starlink access is an expected and cruel development, which Ukraine has been preparing for. 1/9 Starlink is perhaps the most significant American tech used by Ukraine. It is the backbone of command and control systems and especially drone warfare. The strategic significance of the weapons America has provided pale in comparison to Starlink. 2/9

Assad's regime has fallen, with Russian forces scrambling like rats from a sinking ship, like they did during Wagner's march on Moscow. As always, the West stands slack-jawed and impotent on the sidelines, while Putin gets another reminder of the fragility of absolute power. 1/15 Putin put on a successful decade-long and extremely bloody theatrical production in which he played the role of Assad's protector and humiliator of cowardly and delusionally naive Western leaders like Obama, who ended up tacit accomplices to Russian crimes around the world. 2/15

Before 2022, Russia's troubles in Georgia and Syria would have seemed potentially disastrous for Putin. Now, they're dwarfed by Russia's war against Ukraine—a war that will forever define the Putin regime and the future of Russia itself. 1/8 Russia is undoubtedly looking for ways to back pro-Kremlin proxies in Georgia and to bolster Assad in Syria, but there's only so much it can do when it's running the meat grinder for its own forces at full power in Ukraine. 2/8

Ukraine's air force has confirmed that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missiles, hitting Dnipro. This is the first use of an ICBM in combat and was clearly intended to intimidate the West as part of Russia's extremely successful narrative-shaping campaign. 1/9 Given all the earlier chatter of an impending Russian ICBM attack, it may have been coordinated with the West. An ICBM launch can trigger a response from nuclear-armed states, and Russia may have warned the West ahead of an attack, as it has done prior to ICBM test launches. 2/9

A credible Western "escalation" against Russia would give Putin the off-ramp that the "escalation managers" and peacemongers insist he needs—ironically, it’s the only path to achieving the very outcome they claim to pursue. 1/12 For Putin, losing to Ukraine is an unforgivable humiliation, especially when he has far more resources and more reliable allies than Ukraine. The West's appeasement has given him every reason to continue. 2/12

The Biden-Harris administration's calculated withholding of urgent weapons from Ukraine—effectively shielding Russia from defeat when victory was within reach—has made Trump's reelection seem far less catastrophic, perhaps even offering a silver lining. 1/8 Neither Trump nor Harris are allies of Ukraine, and a Harris win would mean 4 more years of Obama advisors implementing Russia/Iran appeasement policies. Trump could be even worse, but his unpredictability allows for unexpected, yet welcome outcomes. 2/8

https://x.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1852229421270220928

Trump’s candidacy is a gift to Russia, diverting attention from the Biden-Harris foreign policy train wreck that has helped Moscow—something that is unlikely to get any better with Harris at the helm, despite all of the wishful thinking. 1/20 The Biden-Harris administration squandered 3 years, during which it could have fully armed Ukraine and removed all restrictions on how Ukrainians could defend itself. Instead, it chose to appease Russia by preventing a Ukrainian victory. 2/20

Russian sources say that the long-range Ukrainian drone attack on the Toropets arsenal where tens of thousands of tons of missiles, bombs and artillery shells were stored was the most significant and devastating Ukrainian attack on Russian weapons stockpiles of the whole war. 1/5 Witnesses say that the initial explosion felt like a nuclear blast, which makes sense as Russia is known to have stored thousands of massive missiles and bombs there (many weighing more than a ton), not to mention untold quantities of tube and rocket artillery. 2/5

The resignation of Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, underscores the reality that in wartime, polite diplomacy often has to yield to the more combative approach favored by President Zelensky—a dynamic that both his supporters and critics may not entirely appreciate. 1/14 Like his father, Kuleba is a career diplomat who remains committed to diplomatic protocol, even as his country faces an existential crisis, intensified by the dithering of its so-called Western allies. 2/14

The indifference of Russians to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk is best characterized by the Russian idiom "моя хата с краю," which literally means "my hut is at the edge," or, more idiomatically, "it's no skin off my noise." This apathy is an essential Russian trait. 1/12 This apathy is one of the reasons Russian civilians in Kursk aren't stopping Ukrainian tanks with their bare hands or even with Molotov cocktails like Ukrainians did with Russian tanks in 2022. Why risk your life when it's not going to help with your loan repayment. 2/12

While the fog of war surrounding Ukraine's operation in Kursk remains intentionally thick, it's worth correcting not only undue hype but also excessive skepticism by shedding light on Ukraine's effort to redefine the rules of the war that have been imposed on it. 1/17 After its failed blitzkrieg, Russia has sought to lock Ukraine into a war of attrition in which Russia's larger military mass combined with its traditional willingness to sacrifice large numbers of troops to achieve even incremental gains was supposed to wear down Ukraine. 2/17

Ukraine launched a ground incursion into Kursk, Russia because a country cannot simply absorb a decade-long invasion and endless attacks on its territory, but must take the fight to the enemy on its territory, despite the defeatist dictates of its fearful "friends." 1/8 In 2022, before Russia's mobilization, Ukraine had a significant manpower advantage and Russia's border was poorly defended, but Ukrainians were kept on a short leash by the West, which drip fed weapons and strictly forbid them from taking the fight to Russia. 2/8

Instead of treating Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a wake-up call requiring urgent military industrial mobilization, the West ignores its own unpreparedness in the face of near-peer threats, and sees helping Ukraine as a form of charity to keep the war "manageable." 1/13 A striking example of the West's obscenely lethargic approach to supplying Ukraine with what it needs and to its own military preparedness ahead of a near-peer conflict is the failure of key Western precision-guided munitions because of Russian electronic warfare. 2/13

With Trump choosing one of the most anti-Ukraine US politicians to be his running mate, many are prematurely writing elegies for Ukraine, but Ukrainians who've survived far worse can neither afford to partake in extreme US political tribalism nor to wallow in grief. 1/19 US vice presidents are generally chosen to appeal to certain voters or to compensate for the perceived shortcomings of the presidential candidate. Their selection is designed to make the presidential ticket more electable, but they are rarely the key decision makers. 2/19

Russia launched a successful missile attack on a Ukrainian airbase in Poltava, but team Biden forbids Ukraine from using ATCAMS missiles to launch similar strikes against Russian airbases, which launch daily crippling attacks against Ukraine. This asymmetry is deliberate. 1/13 After years of denying Ukraine ATACMS and forbidding it from hitting targets inside Russia, team Biden's policy not only bought Russia enormous amounts of time to regroup, but emboldened it to reinvade the Kharkiv region from the safety of Belgorod. 2/13

Here's why limiting the number of Ukrainian pilots training to fly F-16s is a politically convenient but insidious trick that allows team Biden to limit the effectiveness of the F-16s that will be delivered, while obstructing Ukraine's ability to win, or even defend itself. 1/15 A similar trick was used by team Biden in 2023 to stall the delivery of European F-16s and the training of Ukrainian pilots. Then, Europe was ready to provide the jets and start training, but team Biden delayed authorizing that training, wasting even more time. 2/15

The Biden national insecurity team questioning UK allegations that China is sending lethal aid to Russia allows team Biden to avoid confronting China, whose rapidly growing belligerence towards its neighbors scares an already scared administration. It's also beside the point. 1/9 The US via Sec. Blinken has already stated that "China is the top supplier of machine tools, microelectronics, nitrocellulose, which is critical to making munitions and rocket propellants, and other dual-use items that Moscow is using to ramp up its defence industrial base." 2/9

The 'Bakhmutization' of Vovchansk continues as Russia's reinvasion of Kharkiv tries to establish an urban foothold despite heavy losses in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance. Although costly, Russia's approach is the result of an evolution in its military doctrine. 1/16 In 2022, Russia used large mechanized units for deep maneuvers, following heavy artillery fire that softened Ukrainian defenses, which were always low on ammo, forcing Ukrainians to retreat. This allowed Russia to quickly seize territory. 2/16

Kharkiv update: While Ukrainian defenses have been improving in the last several days, Russia is barely able to make any progress and is now focusing its efforts on seizing Vovchansk as its reserves run low, endangering its more ambitious goals. 1/8 Russia's multipronged reinvasion of Kharkiv was supposed to stretch Ukrainian defenses thin along a wide front, potentially breaking them in one or more spots, enabling a deep thrust either in the direction of the city of Kharkiv or Kupyansk or both. 2/8

Update from Kharkiv: Russia is not giving up attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses, but they have not been able to achieve any success at the operational level that would merit the large losses. Here's what we know so far. 1/12 Ukraine is organizing its defensive operations with the help of experienced local commanders who are compensating for mistakes made at more senior levels. This has been true across Ukraine, in general. 2/12