Thread by @secretsqrl123

here is what im seeing.
this is basic math and open source reporting so im keeping opsec.
UKR army has built at least 3 battle groups. each about the size of a US division (3-4 brigades with attached elements working together).

the VAST majority of the vehicles are wheeled vehicles. this seems to be built like the US 9th infantry div (1985-91) truly motorized divisions. the makeup is infantry transports (HMMWVs, pick ups), scout. dune buggies FASTVs, and backed up by MRAPS, BTRs... with tanks attached

this allows the ukr forces to move fast hit hard and hold with dismounted ATGMs. the russian army with "death before dismount mentality has no way to counter this. as they are sending reinforcements into the battle they are hitting ambushes and counter attacks prior to deploying

im betting that the ukr army has made 3 battle groups. one that hit kherson, one that hit the north, and one that has not been played yet.

if you are battletracker (i am) you count vehicles by TO&E (donated, sold vehicles) and look for them in combat as BDA. sofar many of some types of vehicles donated HAVE NOT shown up on the battlefield, yet.

if my numbers are right only about 1/2 of the new "secret" army has been used. this means another strike is coming....soon... and just like the north strike this will be too fast for the ru forces to counter.

in addition MANY more vehicles are being given to the ukr forces right now. and the troops that were holding the line are being recovered, rested, and rearmed... in 14-30 days the ukr army will have 2-3 more battle groups (divisions) that can be thrown into the fight

im really not tracking any unengaged fresh troops of anything over a brigade that ru still has that could counter any attack of that size... but time will tell

keep in mind that both sides are showing old video of units that were in training... many of the vid of some vehicles are not in combat.. they are old training vid and the vehicles are NOT yet in combat.. they will be when the time is right

i will say this. the ukr army has 4 options to strike the next blow, any of the 4 could spell the end of the russian army in that FRONT. this would enable the ukr army to swing its remaining army to the opposite front crushing the surviving ru forces