another airfield hit!!!
Marinovka lots of fires

t.me/vchkogpu/50150

ok someone is out there calling me out...
so im going to clarify something...
the super brigade... for the last year i have been saying that the use of the term brigade in the ukr military has SOMEWHAT lost its meaning...

and here is why...
this is a normal brigade in the west..

HQ battalion
3 combat maneuver battalions
artillery battalion
support battalion

what we know, dont know, suspect...
and 2 COA... in the north sector we KNOW of
2 mech brigades
1 TDF brigade
1 brigade worth of recon / sept battalion
border guards
1 arty brigade..

i SUSPECT that they have 6+ brigades on the way or on stand by..
13th jager
144th
150th
and more

on the russian side they have about 3-4 rgt of untrained conscripts...
akhmut battalion (last seen running)
local national guard bn
border guard battalion (crushed)
1 BN+ of the 488th (conscripts)
air force infantry rgt (underequipped)

on the way is a T-62 battalion, already taking losses..
and probably a infantry brigade 2-7 days out.
with a division following (if they can move it...) 7-10 days

this is what we know so far..
brigade + incursion into kursk.
so far its 7km deep... (russian kharkiv maxed out at 6.5).
the ukr forces are still advancing..
russia is rushing the 22nd brigade? to the front along with air cover.. ukraine is wrecking everything with drones.
russian TG and social media proves they were not ready for this.

if you follow me and on my twitter space i kept pointing this force out for the last 2 months.

people keep asking me ...
"what is the US plan for ukraine?"

its simple..
no strikes inside russia...
get to the end of 2024 and into 2025 and then give russia a chance to end the war.

thats the plan.
how do i know??
simple the head of the NSC, Jon Finer openly states that is the policy.

27:50 sec

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_…

a thread about patriots.....
keeping it simple you have 2 kinds of rockets
pac2 is larger and has more range and you can have 4 on a launcher...

pac3 are smaller, less range but you can have 18 on a launcher

russian logistics and how they are messing up...
one sign is not being able to cloth its units in modern standard of uniform..
the current issue is supposed to be digi flora.
this camo was picked YEARS ago to outfit everyone in the russian military...
remember this is the STANDARD!!!
and nearly every member of the armed forces of the russian federation was issued at least 3 sets.

the russian national guard had its own uniform, its a cheap copy of the US ATACS uniform... again this was standard!!!

only the 2 uniforms are official in the russian military.. but things change when you are losing a war.
uniforms of all types are now being issued..
note all pictures are from death notices in russian news..

700k is not going to cut it. the allies had only about 16 divisions for desert storm and 900K +

NO SHIT
i have been reporting on this for over a year and how the valuation was WAY WAY off....
i know military vehicles.. the price they were "charging " for them was nuts!!!!
people like john ridge and a few others said i was a liar.... well turns out i was right from the start!!!
this is the 2nd time that they have been caught overvaluing the gear..
DLA is a place where senior shit former officers go after a shit time in the military. they need adult supervision, and thats the truth.

https://twitter.com/DoD_IG/status/1801335228088389930

the iranian president was in a
bell 212...
that was VFR rated (visual flight rules)
that was 40 + years old
that canada grounded in 2022 (where it was made)
not good at high alt.
the visibility was under 5 m
it had no radar
another crashed in 2023 in the gulf...
many crashes over the last 5 years.
this aircraft was sanctioned, no parts could legally be purchased not the first one to crash

people asking me how units like the 93rd be in the fight near kaharkiev and not be pulled out of the fight in the south...
simple they are NOT normal brigades..
US and most other brigades look like this.... this is the 93rd brigade....
and this has about the same firepower as a US or western brigade... but wait there is more.....

1 of ?
there has been lots of talk of more bradleys going to ukraine..

so lets take a look at the bradley and see how many could probably go...

ok so the TOTAL number of bradleys made by FMC (food machine co) was 6724..
the LAST hull was made in 1991, any after that were rebuilt hulls.

FMC has long ago shut down production and now BAE makes all the parts for the bradley except for the hull and turret... 2. desert storm... in that war about 20 were lost total...
i was RIGHT behind one that was hit by a RPG.. TF 1-41 infantry, battle of norlfolk. 6704

RUSSIAN TG "FIGHTER BOMBER"
getting sober about the F16.

More about the F-16.

We have been waiting for the F-16 for three years, and there are still decades before that. We hung out with them in the KOR and in the Far East, and assessed them in Syria. In general, we always prepared for a fight with him.
Purely theoretically, it is not yet very clear what the crests are counting on. We are preparing for a fight with F-16s that are as close as possible to the block 52 modification. That is, top-end, or pre-top-end, with the coolest missiles.
But in terms of range of Air-to-Air missiles, we have at least the same range as the F-16, or we shoot further. In terms of the range of the sights, we see and capture the F-16 better than it does us, and significantly. Not to mention the illumination during maneuvers. In terms of the number of fighters we are again larger, in terms of the level of training of pilots we are many times stronger, we have more missiles again, in terms of air defense, we will again beat the Ukrainians in every respect. 2 But of course, “not everything is so simple,” there will be a fight and you have to try very hard to beat the F-16 dry.
It is unlikely that the Little Russian will go to fight them with us on equal terms. Rather, he will analyze the air situation, look for single targets at sea, bombers without cover, helicopters, and again use ambush tactics.
This is if he plans to work for them by air. As with the "Patriots", the crest will fire packs of missiles towards the target without illuminating the target, in the hope that the active head of the missile will catch the target with some minimal probability. Avaks can provide full support for air combat only in areas bordering the Kyiv and Odessa regions. Well, over the sea. The farther away the helpers are from the borders, the worse and worse the help will be.

There is an opinion that at the beginning of their appearance they will be used exclusively against our air defense and ground targets. This is obvious, because The F-16 can use Air-to-Radar and Air-to-Ground missiles much more effectively than the Su-24 and MiG-29 to which the crests attached the missiles with tape.

1-? its after 12pm here and i am having a stream running through my head...

artillery rounds or shells or bombs?

now this thread is NOT going to have answers.. anyone trying to find one right now is just going to be throwing out numbers that no one can verify or trust...

but far more than numbers we need to be asking questions... when i was in the army working S/G2 (intel) the best people knew how to ask the best questions. and i dont think most people are doing that right now... 2 in no way am i trying to down play the situation at the front and say that ukr has enough of anything.. im only asking questions and looking at the projections...

when people talk about western production they say 2 things...
1. us production
and
2. 155 unitary shells..

people keep being fixated on this 2 things. but its not just US production, and not just 155 unitary rounds.
just off the top of my head i know the following countries are making rounds or will..
FRG, FR, SP, IT, DN, SW, CA, FIN, CZ, POL, SL, RO, IN, PAK, AUS, UK, NOR, .....
you have many countries with stocks of rounds that are sending them,

and you have countries that are buying them...

then you have one of the larger countries making them that few talk about UKR....

in addition you have countries that are making rounds to back fill SK, BRZ, SA so others can send there old stock

1-?
people have ask me if i support the bill that biden has demanded that the house sing...
sure i support it..

if thats the only thing we can get sure....

but have no doubt its the end of the funding for ukraine, and it is about 1-2 months of funding.....
it is NOT enough to win the war... 2. this bill should be passed (if its all that we can get). if the jhonson bill can be passed it should be (it has more in it).... but then we can forget about europe... no one will trust us again, no one will listen to us...

our 40 ish billion (only 7.8 billion in reality) is enough to let europe know we dont care about them or the war in ukraine... we are out. out of helping ukraine and out of nato.

europe is stepping up with over 100 billion in aid and we are sending under 8...

russia is screwed and here is how and why.. russia has between 135 and 140 million
over the last decade the population of russia is dropping like a rock down up to 2 million a year (from low birth rates)..

now add on to that 3 million leaving russia and another about 1 million dead or WIA due to the war...

thats a huge drop in the population.

the end of nato as a military force dominated by the USA?

it could happen due to the UKR war...

lots of people have stated that trump was a danger to the alliance... but it looks like the current administration may be the ones that ends the group as a military force...

and here is what i am talking about.. no one in europe trusts the US right now.. not the brits, the german, italians, french... no one.

the polish were blocked by the administration from donating the MIG29s for months, the Dutch, Norwegians, and Danes all blocked from donating the F16s... by the biden team.

the brits wanted the defense secretary (wallace) to become the nato sec general.. but the US blocked that.

and the brits donated tanks thinking the US would donate far more... europe as a whole donated 900 tanks.. the mighty USA.. 31.

currently the US is blocking over 1000 atacms that are going to scrap and could be used to quickly end the war.. but will not. and blocks any other country from donating them.

the USA is not loved in europe right now. how would this happen, well its starting to happen now..

in the red sea.
the US tried to get a fleet of ships together to help protect the red sea...
the issue is that nearly no one signed up...
and most that did just sent some officers to a hotel near the fleet HQ to hang out...

france, italy, and spain showed up but after hearing what the US wanted to do stormed out of the meeting early and said they would NOT be under US command....

this is starting to happen on a larger scale.

ok here we go...
why am i pissed off today...
lies..
and ukraine not getting what they need to win the war...
here is the target today, the scrapyard outside the gate of red river army depot.... and the 600 verified bradleys they are cutting up the ukraine army got 186 M2 bradleys... thats it, and they have lost about 40+ of them

the case for the M2A5 bradley is building...
a new gen of the old M2 is something that should be done in my opinion....

the mature system that we have has proven that it can take out anything on the battlefield, is cost effective, proven, and now back in production. the current turret has been upgraded over the years with a better ISU (sight), BELRF (laser range finder), commanders sight, C2, radios, and armor.

the new TOW Fs are now radio guided and no longer need to have the wire...

something truly amazing is going on here.
from open news about 2 -3 (3-400 troops) companies of the ukr 36th brigade (20% or so of the brigade), with support... are holding out against elements of.... (with at full sized numbers)
810th marine brigade 3000+
404th regiment 2000+
26th regiment 2000+
144th brigade 3000+
BARS (600)
10th SF 1000+
238th VDV regiment 2000+
177th marine regiment 2000+
26th marine brigade 3000+

so at full sized the force attacking the bridge head SHOULD be 19,000 troops.
1. so how bad were the russian losses prior to this?
2. how bad are the losses now?
3. what kind of crazy troops does ukraine have?
810th on telegram saying they don't want to attack any more...

Dear friends, I want to think a little about what is happening in our direction in the village of Krynki.
Having communicated a lot with the soldiers and officers of our brigade, and not only ours, after the daily bloody Senseless assaults on this settlement, in which I was able to personally participate, I come to the conclusion that it is time for the Red Army to change tactics in this direction. Specifically, many officers propose simply cordoning off this area and launching daily artillery strikes on enemy positions on the left bank, preventing him from gaining a foothold. Strike on the right bank, destroying all infrastructure and fortified areas created by the enemy on the opposite bank, while at the same time preventing the enemy’s attempts to deliver reinforcements, ammunition and provisions to our shore. At the same time, it is necessary to apply all counter-battery countermeasures, electronic warfare, anti-electronic warfare, and dismantle all firing points from where fire is being fired at us. At the moment, everything looks like the enemy is simply luring us out under his artillery, in small groups deployed to our shore. We throw several assault squads into the assault, which come under continuous artillery fire, tank fire, kamikaze drone attacks and small arms combat. This is the only way I can explain that we cannot take this piece of land within a month, every day sending more and more new detachments and groups, from which not all return. In addition to everything, there are several connections on our site that perform the assigned task each in their own way, without coordinating their actions with their neighbors. All this together leads to very large losses of the Red Army, mostly wounded, but there are also quite a few dead.
I do not expect the command to hear me, I am simply voicing my opinion, which coincides with the opinion of the officers of our Red Army, that it is time to change tactics and it is no longer for us to storm them, leaving the guys on the battlefield every day, but, on the contrary, to invite the adversary to try to break out of our boiler under heavy artillery fire.

The question of the hour for people following the war right now
Avdiivka, and the future of it.
Right now no one can tell what will happen there or the future… but we can war game it

Many people are trying to link a avdiivka with the battle of Bakhmut. There are some differences.
1. In the lead up the Russians had far more artillery then they do now
2. The Russians started off with far better troops (lots of VDV)
3. When the VDV was exhausted the Russians turned to wagner.
4. Wagner had nearly everything they needed for the assault
5. Russian airforce was able to fly over the city due to nearly exhausted air defense
6. At the time its estimated that russia had about 10 million rounds of all types on hand
7. Ukraine never fully reinforced Bakhmut and allowed for a fighting rear action to leave the city

Now today…
1. Russia does not have a clear advantage in the number or type of artillery.
2. The Russians are now using more mobilized reserve forces and TD brigades.
3. To this point only a few SPF (SF) troops, and the 13th assault battalion (DPR) have been used with no verified VDV or other high quality troops being seen.
4. On some assaults PT-76s and other out of date vehicles have been seen on the attack.
5. Due to more air defense the Russian airforce has taken high losses around AVD.
6. Russia is having to bring in north Korean rounds to make up for Russian stockpiles being exhausted. The NK rounds are known for being a danger to the crews using them now.
Ukraine has moved into the area 12 brigade sized units to defend the city
What we know right now…
The 1st corps of the Russian army (formaly the 1stcorps DPR) is being used to batter the ukr army holding the city…
87th, 100th, 110th 109th, 114th, rgts of the DPR with the 1st and 9thbrigades, and the 13th assault battalion.
Attached are 5 territorial defense regiments.
From reports the 1st corps is poorly trained and equipped.
From reports this force has taken OVER 10,000 KIA and far more WIA in the battle so far. This is about right when you look at the amount of days in combat, and the amount of verified losses.

Now the Russians are moving up elements of the 2ndarmy, the 6th division, and the 90th division.
Moving more and more lesser quality units up has not had the desired effect of pushing back the ukr forces. This has resulted in FAR higher losses overall per day than Bakhmut.