Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵September 10th.
Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations.

I need to start this thread now to be able to keep up.
There will be an evening update as usual in this thread.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…

Yesterdays thread:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1568299771303022592

I'm changing the west side of Kup'yans'k to liberated based on geolocation. The rumors says RU evacuated the city, unsure if this includes the parts of the city east of the Oskil river.

Rumors from both sides says AFU is attacking Izium from the north and that RU are evacuating it, I still want to see photo/video evidence.

I think it's possible the AFU have control of a large part of the area in the Balakliya, Kup'yans'k, Izium triangle.

https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1568487986106605568

I think it's safe to say we are seeing a total collapse of the Russian defenses between Kharkiv and Slovyansk.

If the AFU can keep creating confusion in RU back line and fleeing troops. It's not unlikely we will see huge traffic jams. Especially when the fleeing units meets the reinforcements. The RU lack of communication capabilities will only add on to this problem. h/t @secretsqrl123

I have discussed this stuff with @secretsqrl123 for months. We both agreed on the AFU preparing something with all the western provided equipment. I think this thread is worth a read. He has been spot on with assessments for the AFU offensive.

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1568438928516022279

One example is he told me about a month ago he expected the AFU to use very fast pace and high mobility in case of an offensive. This is exactly what we are seeing now. The AFU are striking fast and deep to create confusion and follow up with mechanized units.

Another thing to think about, Russian propaganda creators would be shitting out videos of how they are still in control if they were not busy fleeing.

Ukraine has also proven they are winners, this is not unimportant when it comes to securing further western support. This kind of offensive would most likely have been much more difficult in a few months with rain and mud.

It is not unlikely Europe will have problem this winter when it comes to energy. If we get rolling blackouts and industrial shutdowns due to high energy prices, I'm sure we would see a decreasing support for Ukrainian military aid if they had not proven their abilities...

...to fight back against the Russian. That could have resulted in a forced cease fire from the west. This is also important in Russia, where they no longer are seeing a successful special operation, the public opinion could change fast there.

Then there is the huge morale boosting effect for the Ukrainian people/soldiers, and the opposite effect for the Russian occupying force. I bet all Russians soldiers wonder if their part of the frontline is next. Especially those on the wrong side of the river in Kherson.

It seems we are already starting to see a bit of traffic.

Rumors about RuAF leaving Svatove.
t.me/grey_zone/14960

I'm pretty sure this is here 49.23566066585061, 37.248531881042496

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568563801863094272

AFU position in the video above.

AFU confirmed on the edge of Izium by video. Exact route to Izium is for me unknown, so I made a guess.
I also have confirmation about Lyman being liberated from a reliable source. (yes I know, but this one has to be one of those "trust me bro")

https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1568567454640607232

They are running.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1568595212062306305?s=20&t=UzPhpYqt2_szVGUwHuR8Mg

Some one should tell them reinforcements should be going the opposite way.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1568595931112640514

Savyntsi liberated based on photo evidence. I am assuming the settlements west of it are too.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1568597035187675138

The channel for 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion claimed they were still in Izium this morning, later today they stated the decision was made to retreat from Izium.
h/t @HN_Schlottman
Source t.me/Veteran60OMBC

The latest rumors are about a UA liberation of Khotimlya and them approaching Vovchans'k. I have not seen any evidence supporting this other than telegram rumors.

GSUA reported 95 shelling locations today.

Shelling was reported in Lyptsi and Bruskyns'ke and retracted the RU line of control slight in those areas.

I've seen this image a lot lately, the location checks out, but there is no proof of AFU on the photo. This could be an old photo for all we know.
t.me/DeepStateUA

Artemivka and Vasylenkove confirmed liberated.
There are unconfirmed rumors about Martove being liberated (there is a picture, location is correct but no soldiers in it)
There are also unconfirmed rumors about the AFU approaching Vovchanss'k.

Source: t.me/V_Zelenskiy_of…

I now consider Izium liberated, based on video of car with IFF and weapons geolocated in town. I wont post geolocation.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568706998522224646

Changing Martove to liberated,
I base this on the picture by deepstate and a talk with @Kartinamaslom5 who has on the ground confirmation.
t.me/DeepStateUA/14…

https://twitter.com/Kartinamaslom5/status/1568624145528750082

At this point, it's more or less safe to consider the forest west of Izium as liberated. It will be in a day or two if it isn't already. It's just a mater of time before the AFU reaches the ford at the town Oskil, if they haven't already.

If there still are Russians south of Izium, they will soon be added to the POW exchange fund. As you can see on the map, they will be more or less cut of now that the AFU controls Izium.

I think what we will see very soon is that everything west of the Oskil river and south of the SD river in the Kharkiv oblast will be liberated. This is an area about 4000 sqkm.

I also think there will be an offensive north in the Lyman area and one axis of advance north on the left bank of the Oskil river from the town Oskil.