Thread by @TrentTelenko

It is time for a Russo-Ukrainian War termination🧵

The reality that Donetsk airport has fallen to the AFU means we are looking at an Afghan National Army style collapse of the Russia's LNR Colonial Militia.

This has huge knock on effects.
1/

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1568525422949793792

From Heyday who is head of Luhansk UA administration:

*Residents of Lysychansk have already seen the ZSU on the outskirts of the city

*Partisans raised the Ukrainian flag over Kreminna at night

*Russians and collaborators are leaving the territory of Luhansk region en masse
2/

It is the bug out of the leaders of the fictional Luhansk colonial government, which is causing LNR troops resistance to collapse.

This is just like what happened with the US supported Afghanistan National government.

3/

There another and more appropriately European military collapse sequence which will explain why Russia will let the LNR & DNR collapse:

The fall of the Bosnian Serb statlet to the Croat Operation Storm offensive.

Slobodan Milošević did not throw Serb forces into Bosnia.
4/

Instead Milošević used Serbian Army units as border control 'filtration' to forcibly disarm retreating Bosnian Serb forces to prevent the possibility of an armed coup.

Putin's Russia will not behave any differently with the LNR.

It's about keeping power right now, stupid!
5/

Once the AFU hits Luhansk city, they can turn South and envelope the DNR.

2/3 of the Russia's Ukrainian invasion force are in this Kharkiv to LNR to DNR sector.

And there are no defenses on the LNR/DNR common border.
6/

BLUF: The Russians have no reserves in the East.

With the northern backdoor open, and Russian reinforcement denied because of the higher priority need for Russian Federation 'regime protection' work, the Russian Army & colonial militias will run or go home respectively.

7/

AFU simply raiding south down the rail lines into Donbass destroying railway engine & car rolling stock will collapse the LNR/DNR military's logistics.

We are looking at something like the fall of France.

We may see the whole Russian Northern sector above Mariupol collapse
8/

A eastern back door to Crimea will then be wide open.

The Russian colonial militia west of Mariupol will be beating feet first to Crimea and then across the Kerch bridge to Russia.

The AFU won't even have to blow up the bridge.
9/

All the out of fuel/broken down T-62's that are going to happen there will take care of stopping vehicle traffic across the bridge.

And the recent Russian T-72 video showing troops being shedded off & then crashing into a tree makes clear, all the lanes of the Kerch bridge

10/

...will be used to run into Russia.

Remember the VDV and all the 'elite mobile units' of the Russian Army are in Kherson on the wrong side of a AFU HIMARS/GMLRS controlled river.

And they have smart phones to tell them what is happening behind them, H/T @LIM49Spartan
11/

This "The Russians are abandoning Vovchans'k" hacking operation was likely an AFU psychological operation to get the Luhansk colonial government leaders to rabbit.

12/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568614340718215168

What we are seeing in all of this is a "Lanchester Square collapse."

All the military trends leading to the last few days events have been foreseeable since May 2022 when I first spoke about it.
13/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1520885569651617792

The only reason we didn't see this Russian collapse a couple of months earlier is the Ukrainians ran out of artillery ammunition in May.

14/

The Ukrainians have 900 years of deep raiding experience going back to the assault on the Khazars.

Deep raiding is literally in the Ukrainians DNA.

Blitzkrieg is using deep raiding tactics for manoeuvre.

And the AFU did it in 2014 against the Russians.
15/

The data was there. But the reasoning processes to understand it were not.

The pretenders who play to the audience always get the limelight in Western intelligence. BS rules with Western policy makers.

And the audience Western intelligence played to expected AFU to lose.
16/

We are seeing the same thing with China analysis in the West.

The serious experts have been sidelined completely for the pretenders who are feeding the politicians exactly what they want to hear.

17/

It will be interesting to watch the pretenders in Western Intelligence suffer total amnesia in a week's time as they and the rest of the "Sanhedrin of the Pinky Sworn Truth" reposition themselves to Russia's collapse.

I've got a batch of popcorn waiting just for them.

18/18 End