Thread by @JominiW

1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin

2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.

3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.

4/ Russian forces are now facing a dire situation in which they have clearly lost operational momentum & the strategic initiative. With the loss of Izyum, Kupyansk, & Velykyi Burluk the VSRF position in the Donbas is now in operational peril & likewise is strategically tenuous.

5/ On 14 April 2022 I surmised that the ZSU would execute a false attack against a portion of the defensive line while applying localized overwhelming force to a weakened defensive sector before the Russians could adjust forces to prevent a breakthrough.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761229738389504?s=20&t=wyP-nxIZtWNnvkucBrlErw

6/ It appears the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish this. They will continue to pressure the VSRF as they withdraw & attempt to establish a defensive line to retain control of occupied territory. However, given the poor state Russian forces the ZSU will gain more ground.